Microsoft Hops On The 10 Year Plan

[Gorvi]

Remember when everyone thought Sony's ten year plan for the PS3 was stupid? Well, apparently Microsoft doesn't think so, as Shane Kim told Gamesindustry.biz that they have a similar vision for the 360:

"We firmly believe that the Xbox 360 has a life cycle through 2015 (ten years after the launch)," he said. "Project Natal is a great innovation. It will work with every Xbox 360 sold.

"It's not about pushing more pixels on the screen," he said, referring specifically to Natal, "It's about how to break down barriers that stop people from playing games."

I am so damn happy to hear that. I'm perfectly content with the current generation of hardware, I'd much rather see them try to innovate with what's out there than try to push out a new console. Thank you Mr. Kim.

[TrackZero]

Good news for all to some degree. Though I won't be surprised if they still make a v1.5 version of the hardware at some stage.

[Telefrog]

I think the only good thing about the Wii is that it convinced MS to go with a longer lifecycle for the 360. The success of the Wii demonstrated that the general public does not require a huge graphical leap every 3-4 years. As for the veracity of this statement, I think the announcement of Natal so late in the console's life is a good indicator that they're serious.

[Gorvi]

Originally Posted by TrackZero

Good news for all to some degree. Though I won't be surprised if they still make a v1.5 version of the hardware at some stage.

I can see them doing a PS2 Slim style revision (I'd be surprised if they didn't), but a 1.5 upgrade (in terms of processing power) may as well be a full upgrade. You'd still be asking people to buy a new, more powerful machine.

[rein]

I expect Sony to announce their new 15 year plan any time.

I think any console maker would be stupid to not look at the success of the PS2 and how the 10 year plan paid off for Sony. I am a little nervous that if all console makers start extending the life of their current systems into the next generation that it might water down the market. Remember some of the crap that was coming out at the end of the PS ?

[Goronmon]

It seems like the switch to the current hardware cycle was rough for both Sony and Microsoft. MS really pushed to get the 360 out ASAP and that rush resulted in the massive hardware issues that have plagued the system since release. Sony had to push out the PS3 possibly earlier than they wanted to not be too far behind and have been taking losses on every console sold.

Both must be trying to avoid similar situations cropping up again, especially since a new console in the next couple years wouldn't be that big of a leap over the current technologies.

[bapenguin]

Doesn't mean we won't see new hardware in the meantime. My guess is 2011 will be the year of the next-gen consoles, with announcements next year of development.

[Gorvi]

Originally Posted by bapenguin

Doesn't mean we won't see new hardware in the meantime. My guess is 2011 will be the year of the next-gen consoles, with announcements next year of development.

I sure hope not, that still seems too early. I'm still being "wowed" by what we're seeing on the PS3 and 360 as it is, do we really need more horsepower that soon?

[LarsenNET]

I think this is mostly driven based on the state of the economy than anything else. The market can't bear a new release anytime soon, and the investment is too great.

Personally I'd like to see developers concentrate on this gen to get the most out of it and spend most of their time making great games not dealing with a new platform.

[rein]

Originally Posted by bapenguin

Doesn't mean we won't see new hardware in the meantime. My guess is 2011 will be the year of the next-gen consoles, with announcements next year of development.

I agree for the most part. All of this 10 year plan talk only means they will be extending the current generation consoles as budget solutions longer into the next generation. I'm sure we will start seeing rumors soon enough on new hardware specs but I hope we are at least 2-3 years away from the new console launches.

So, what kind of life cycle would everyone like to see for console launches? I think 7/8 year would be about right. Gives the console plenty of time to mature without getting stale.

Also, how do you feel about peripheral upgrades and their ability to extend the life of a console? Would you prefer a shorter console life without being forced to buy an "improved" controller?

[Gorvi]

I'd rather see the evolution by peripheral, but it's the burden of the console manufacturer to actually get that peripheral in people's hands. That is the one huge barrier both Sony and Microsoft are going to run into when they try to get their new motion controllers out to people.

[Lutheran]

Believe me , I would love to see no new next gen consoles for a long time. I think all 3 of these consoles can have incredible games spread over the next 4 years. Bring a new console in 2012 or 13. The Wii will need to do a HD version of the console well before then IMO though maybe not as most of my favorite games are the Wiiware/Live Arcade/PSN games and the graphics in most of those games are cartoon like. Still would be nice to play games on the Wii at 720p.

[Shadowstorm]

Bah, motion controllers. Hand me a simple standard controller any day over that.

Microsoft would benefit if they would simply lower the outrageous prices on their accessories.

[Wraith]

It'd certainly be nice to see the 360 getting the support in its old age that the PS2's been getting. While the 360 may not be as insanely popular as the PS2 was in its generation, it's a lot closer than the original Xbox.

If we see new consoles in 2011/2012, and MS keeps the 360 going another 2-4 years after that... Wouldn't be a bad idea. Even if it doesn't stick around 'til 2015, at least it won't immediately drop off the face of the earth when the next 'box arrives.

[Chris_D]

It will be a long time before Nintendo has a console as powerful as the PS3 or 360 so they are safe in that regard.

And I would completely expect, first a 360 slim, then a few years later a 360 1.5. Remember, a key difference this gen is that MS has complete ownership of the CPU and GPU designs (they made sure of it this time round) and still have good relations with AMD and IBM I presume. The Wii is basically a GC 1.5 and it works beautifully. The difference could just be as simple as the game running in 720p, or running in 1080p, or using less textures etc. Or maybe like the difference between DX9 and DX10.

Apple is already upgrading the CPU with each iPod touch / iPhone release, so this is nothing new.

[Iron Past]

Hmm. Natal makes we wonder. I could definitely see them pushing their new console out the door in a few years for the more hardcore, and keeping the X360 around as the cheap alternative that offers things like the motion camera (that would also be available on the new hardware). You know, there's a nextgen system with all the upgrades and cool crap but is more expensive, but there's also the X360 with the other upgrades like Natal that turn it into a casual machine at that point where it's cheaper. I don't know if I'm explaining this very well.

[TrackZero]

Originally Posted by Gorvi

I can see them doing a PS2 Slim style revision (I'd be surprised if they didn't), but a 1.5 upgrade (in terms of processing power) may as well be a full upgrade. You'd still be asking people to buy a new, more powerful machine.

I don't know myself either. Davis Ellis has been hinting at the ListenUP podcast about some new console from MS launching next year, but was vary vague and danced around it. I think it was on the May 29th show. But he clearly said it wasn't going to be a "xbox 720". Maybe MS is making a "casual" console??

[Chris_D]

Kind of, but the key point is that the next 360 will be fully BC with the current one, just like the Wii. Also, the hardware upgrade itself will not be so significant due to a requirement to keep costs down and a general lack of demand for it along with resistance from developers.

[Grifter]

I think this could be a great thing for gaming as a whole, not just consoles but for PCs as well. If MS and Sony are both committed to a 10 year plan with a new console launch around the 8 year mark not only will it give them both time to really perfect the next gen consoles in development but create such large install base for the current gen that backwards compatibility will be necessary for their new consoles. I know a lot of people don't care all that much about BC but with graphics as good as they are now and with games costing as much as they do I think that we would see quite a few devs (especially ones with smaller budgets) continuing to make very good AAA titles for the 360 and PS3 many years into the life of the 720 and PS4 and unlike most PS2 games that have been released in the last few years these games would continue to sell very well because both budget gamers and early adopters will be able to enjoy them without any complications.

The reason this will have a huge impact on PC gaming is because most current big budget developers create games for both PC and consoles so it's unlikely we will see PC games increase their hardware requirements drastically if the current bar is only a few notches above what we see on current consoles. If this is the case Nvidia and AMD/ATI will have no reason to push new expensive cards on us every 6 months. We will be able to run new games on our current hardware for another 4 years without having to sacrifice performance and higher game settings. The industry will be forced to push the graphics bar through software for a much longer time giving PC devs the time and motivation to truly learn how to take advantage of current video cards.

Can you imagine how good PC games could look if developers learned how to squeeze every ounce of performance out of them like they do with consoles?

The reason I believe this hasn't worked in the past is because graphic fidelity just wasn't high enough making older games really stand out. I'm not saying that the next generation of consoles won't look leaps and bounds better than current gen but what I am saying is current gen looks good enough to where most people won't care nearly as much. We are finally at a point where real time cinematics in engine look so good that most people would be willing to watch an animated TV show or even a movie at the same level of quality or even lower in some cases. I think for most people gameplay graphics expectations are always set a bit lower than cut scene expectations so because I believe we are currently at a point where that bar for most people is actually lower than what todays consoles are capable of we aren't going to see a huge drop off in current gen game sales when the next is available like we have in the past. The need for bigger and better graphics is slowly shrinking as the need for new and fun ways to play games and immerse our selfs is increasing.

As long as games continue to be as complex and beautiful as what we are seeing in current PS3 and 360 offerings I am all for it.

[TrackZero]

Originally Posted by Shadowstorm

Microsoft would benefit if they would simply lower the outrageous prices on their accessories.

Ugh, I agree. That 120GB needs to be slashed, hard, and a bigger drive released if they want to keep a higher price point.