The Iranian Elections

[ShivaX]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090614/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

TEHRAN, Iran – Opponents of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad clashed with police in the heart of Iran's capital Saturday, pelting them with rocks and setting fires in the worst unrest in Tehran in a decade. They accused the hard-line president of using fraud to steal election victory from his reformist rival.

The brazen and angry confrontations — including stunning scenes of masked rioters tangling with black-clad police — pushed the self-styled reformist movement closer to a possible moment of truth: Whether to continue defying Iran's powerful security forces or, as they often have before, retreat into quiet dismay and frustration over losing more ground to the Islamic establishment.

But for at least one day, the tone and tactics were more combative than at any time since authorities put down student-led protests in 1999. Young men hurled stones and bottles at anti-riot units and mocked Ahmadinejad as an illegitimate leader. The reformists' new hero, Mir Hossein Mousavi, declared himself the true winner of Friday's presidential race and urged backers to resist a government based on "lies and dictatorship."

I wouldn't be at all suprised if they had a rigged election in Iran, or this could be some sort of Al Gore denial situation as well. Still knowing what little I do about Iran, I've always gotten the impression that they really do want to become a more moderate state and a 2-1 victory for the hard-liners doesn't seem to jive with that.

While I hope this becomes a turning point over there, I see it as something that everyone will forget about after a month or so. Then again I bet the Shah thought things would blow over as well.

[J Arcane]

There's an Iranian bloke over on OPERATORchan who lives over there, and has been posting a bit about all the chaos:
http://operatorchan.org/t/res/31793.html#i31793

Sounds pretty fuckin' nuts over there.

[Chris_D]

Thanks J. I'm interested in any other reporting that folks come across.

[Vandabo]

I never even realized that people thought this would work. I thought it was just another Zimbabwe election.

[Ink Asylum]

I don't see how this isn't rigged. Ahmadinejad may have gotten more votes in the real count, but there is no way he won with two-thirds of the vote. Not in a groundbreaking referendum election with 85% turnout.

[BlackPete]

Totally rigged. Ahman even "won" with 57% in the opponent's home province, which is an absolute impossibility.

He also won with fairly even number across the country with no cultural or ethnical differences. Another impossibility.

[ShivaX]

I never even realized that people thought this would work. I thought it was just another Zimbabwe election.

Actually Iran's elections to date have been mostly fair from what I've gathered. The elected officials aren't the real power anyway, thats the clerics. So if one got elected over another, it ultimately didn't matter too much.

[DoctorFinger]

It comes from a righty blog (my favorite one BTW), but this is a great roundup (http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/13/senior-us-official-yes-the-iranian-election-was-rigged/) of what's happening in Iran.

Update: Tehran Bureau (http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/13/alerts-from-tehran/), a site for independent Iranian journalism, claims there are 50 to 100 people dead from Iranian cops’ thuggery at protests today. Plus thus tidbit, proving that this is in fact a coup:
Two interesting points on Iranian election:
1. After election results were announced, the election committee must wait for three days to accept any grievances for any irregularity before certify the results.
2. The results of election needs to be certified by the Council of Experts before it goes to the Leader for final approval
Today neither of these two rules were followed and the Leader in his speech approved the results of the election and asked all parties involved to work with Ahmadinejad.It's sounding more and more like a real coup (http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/14/at-the-brink-ahmadinejad-refuses-to-guarantee-mousavis-safety/). The scenario: Khamenei (the real power in Iran) was going to have Mousvani win a close election to try and blunt Ahmadinejad, who was amassing power, and appease grumblers both internal and external. But Ahmadinejad and his cronies fixed the election, and forced Khamenei to bless it. But because the fix came from an unexpected place, it was as ham fisted as you could get.

Is this, could this be, the Iranian version of Tienanmen Square? Real anger and rage that will ultimately be for naught, or is there a chance we'll see reforms?

[Ink Asylum]

Reading a lot of different leaked numbers today, reportedly from sources inside the Iranian government that disagree with what is happening. Few of them are exactly the same, but they typically show Mousvani with ~60% and Ahmadinejad with ~30%. Take that with a huge grain of salt, but in a passionate election with huge turnout it wouldn't surprise me.

[Ink Asylum]

A student in an Iranian University twittering live: http://twitter.com/change_for_iran

A sample tweet:

bastards just attacked us for no reason, I lost count of how much tear gas they launched at us!

to other sources: this isn't the police! police is still outside! we're under attack by Ansar-Hezbolah.

There's always people in America, on both sides of the political aisle, entertaining grim fantasies of the political party in power subverting democracy. That's happening right now in Iran. My heart goes out to those fighting against such extreme abuse of power.

[Lance Uppercut]

It's pretty chilling to read all these revealing tweets while the mainstream media sits on their hands through this ordeal.

Hell, for some reason Youtube is deleting any videos pertaining to this.

[Ink Asylum]

Youtube says it's because of the "violence" in the videos. Uh, yeah, that's kind of the point of getting them posted. Fucking Youtube.

[Banacek]

This is insanity that the media in our country doesn't seem to care about what is going on in Iran. Is there a summary someone of all the key players? I read that the Iranian Army refuses to stop the protests, and that it's the Hezbolah (with some coming from Lebanon) to quell the riots using violence.

[CES]

This is insanity that the media in our country doesn't seem to care about what is going on in Iran. Is there a summary someone of all the key players? I read that the Iranian Army refuses to stop the protests, and that it's the Hezbolah (with some coming from Lebanon) to quell the riots using violence.

You think the western media gives much of a damn about a country that has been giving them the one finger salute for the last few years? The Op-Ed media will have a field day with it. Expect a lot of "Ha, that's what you get" sentiment.

[Ink Asylum]

The same could have been said about China during the Tiananmen Square protests. Yet they actually managed to do their jobs despite it happening in a rival country. It's sad how far the mainstream media has fallen.

[J Arcane]

You think the western media gives much of a damn about a country that has been giving them the one finger salute for the last few years? The Op-Ed media will have a field day with it. Expect a lot of "Ha, that's what you get" sentiment.
Honestly, I had a wonder at whether at least the US media's reluctance had to do with a distancing from the previous administrations saber rattling at Iran.

One guy on OPchan seemed to think the level of coverage and spin put on it seemed to be directly proportional to just how liberal or conservative the station was, with Fox News on one end shouting doomsday for Iran, and MSNBC on the other declaring everything sunshine and roses and pretty much repeating the Iranian propoganda word for word.

[Serapth]

I am noticing something from much of the TV coverage.

A lot of Iranian women are hot.

[CES]

The same could have been said about China during the Tiananmen Square protests. Yet they actually managed to do their jobs despite it happening in a rival country. It's sad how far the mainstream media has fallen.

The political landscape isn't exactly the same as it was in 1989 now though. There's also the fact that China hasn't directly advocated wiping a country off the map (leaving the whole "mass Tibetan immigration" scheme aside). I hear that helps gain a bit of good will.

Honestly, I had a wonder at whether at least the US media's reluctance had to do with a distancing from the previous administrations saber rattling at Iran.


I imagine that it's part of the situation, at the very least. What I also think it is is a percieved notion that most of the west simply doesn't give a shit about the rioting, a notion that is partly true.

[Ink Asylum]

The political landscape isn't exactly the same as it was in 1989 now though. There's also the fact that China hasn't directly advocated wiping a country off the map (leaving the whole "mass Tibetan immigration" scheme aside). I hear that helps gain a bit of good will.

If Iran is supposedly a worse enemy than China was, shouldn't that make us MORE interested in their citizens rising up against an abuse of power by their leaders?

I imagine that it's part of the situation, at the very least. What I also think it is is a percieved notion that most of the west simply doesn't give a shit about the rioting, a notion that is partly true.

If true that's pretty depressing. Plenty of people in the west do care, thankfully. Dismiss the twitter coverage if you like, but the #IranElection hash-tag is the most popular search term at the moment. The youth in Iran are reporting what is happening to them and the youth in America are paying attention and spreading the word.

[BlackPete]

BBC reporter in Tehran says the situation is potentially explosive. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8099884.stm)

This is going to get ugly fast.

The Ayatollah apparently ordered an investigation of election fraud allegations. (http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2009/06/15/iran_supreme_leader_orders_vote_fraud_probe/)

I'm sure that this investigation will be clean and scandal-free. Yessir. And Ahmandinejad will not only be vindicated, but he'll be declared the SUPER winner. Or something.

[Goronmon]

Yeah, that's some pretty intense stuff. I listened to the reported over there describe how he was "invited" to leave before his visa expired and how a soldier/police carrying a rifle would occasional walk through the hotel he was staying at.

[CES]

If Iran is supposedly a worse enemy than China was, shouldn't that make us MORE interested in their citizens rising up against an abuse of power by their leaders?


In theory, you are correct but the fact remains China never went out of the way to verbally and politically attack the US like Iran has.



If true that's pretty depressing. Plenty of people in the west do care, thankfully. Dismiss the twitter coverage if you like, but the #IranElection hash-tag is the most popular search term at the moment. The youth in Iran are reporting what is happening to them and the youth in America are paying attention and spreading the word.

I did say "percieved", not actual. The people that use Twitter aren't anything like the old guard that runs the mainstream media.

If you want to draw a rather extreme and far-fetched reason, you could say that western media has felt threatened by groups like Al-Jazeera stealing their valuable customers and this is some revenge.

[BlackPete]

God if this means Twitter will be given some journalistic legitimacy, I'll.... I'll.... oh hell I'll just shake my fist at the sky and mumble angrily. Sigh.

Of course, this also means that people will make fun of CNN for fumbling the ball on this and being beaten by Twitter of all things.

[Telefrog]

I don't understand. How is the media ignoring this? The front page of CNN is all about this story. The news this morning was almost nonstop about it.

[Ink Asylum]

Great. They're finally covering it. Last night (America's night, in Iran dawn was breaking) protestors were out on the streets, riot police were beating them down and tear gassing them, Tehran University was assaulted by police, and the government was trying to shut down local news sites with denial of service attacks.

Here's what someone saw while flipping around news networks early this morning. (http://bloggerinterrupted.com/2009/06/total-epic-media-fail-on-iran)

Today, as global geopolitics is shaken to its core by events in Iran, I turned on cable news this morning, and saw endless ads for a Larry King Jonas Brothers “interview”, Morning Joe yukking it up discussing Kuwaiti massage therapists, a video of a tomato throwing contest on CNN, talk radio blowhard Bill Bennett…and occasionally a phone call from Christiane Amanpour in Tehran. I can’t even bring myself to turn on the network morning programs, I might vomit.

So if they're finally covering it now the morning after the initial hours of chaos have passed it's just further proof that they're being outpaced by the internet.

I suppose you could argue like CES is that this no one cares about live coverage of a political and civil rights crisis unfolding in one of the most influential countries in the Middle East, but I don't know what that line of reasoning is trying to prove.

[Telefrog]

So if they're finally covering it now the morning after the initial hours of chaos have passed it's just further proof that they're being outpaced by the internet.

[...]

I suppose you could argue like CES is that this no one cares about live coverage of a political and civil rights crisis unfolding in one of the most influential countries in the Middle East, but I don't know what that line of reasoning is trying to prove.

I'm not arguing that, so leave me out of that line of discussion.

My point is that it's being covered and people are still going on about how it's being ignored. It's not. It's right there on the news. Is it the only story being shown? No. There's other stuff going on in the world, so it's not the only thing getting coverage. Are you arguing that all other news should stop in favor of only covering this?

Look, it's no secret that we (Western countries) are pretty anglocentric when it comes to our news media. Remember the horrendous loss of life in the 2008 hurricane season in Haiti? No? Why not? Over 800 people died during the course of four hurricanes. For some reason, US coverage of the period was dominated by the story of Hurricane Ike which killed 112 people in the states.

[Ink Asylum]

My point is that it's being covered and people are still going on about how it's being ignored. It's not. It's right there on the news. Is it the only story being shown? No. There's other stuff going on in the world, so it's not the only thing getting coverage. Are you arguing that all other news should stop in favor of only covering this?

Who is still going on about it? If the media is now covering this, great, but the posts before yours were primarily about last night and this morning, when it wasn't being covered, at least not in great length, by the biggest media institutions.

Look, it's no secret that we (Western countries) are pretty anglocentric when it comes to our news media. Remember the horrendous loss of life in the 2008 hurricane season in Haiti? No? Why not? Over 800 people died during the course of four hurricanes. For some reason, US coverage of the period was dominated by the story of Hurricane Ike which killed 112 people in the states.

So we shouldn't point it out because it's jsut accepted that the US media (other Western countries are much better than we are concerning these events) doesn't care much about anything that happens outside our borders? You say you weren't arguing what CES was, but now you pretty much are. I guess we're all in agreement that the US mainstream media is woefully uninterested in worldwide events.

Also, unlike natural disasters in other countries, the results of the Iranian election will have a noticeable effect on the US and our foreign policy. So even if we're as anglocentric as you say this is still worth covering.

[CES]

I wouldn't say the UK media is any better. Perhaps there's less nonsense to report but it's still pretty trashy.

The BBC are now in full gear about reporting it though.

[Telefrog]

Who is still going on about it? If the media is now covering this, great, but the posts before yours were primarily about last night and this morning, when it wasn't being covered, at least not in great length, by the biggest media institutions.

You're going on about it! :p All I can tell you is that it was on CNN last night, this morning, and now. I'm not sure how much more coverage this needs before people will stop talking about how "unfairly underreported" this story is in Western sources.

[torrefaction]

This is huge. I don't know, it was the main story on the news last night, and the primary focus of the commercials for the news. It's CNN's main article, and it's getting more and more universal agreement that it's hard to believe these election results.

With 70% youth and women voters, and an 85% voter turnout, somehow Moussavi only gets 33%? Yeah, bullshit.

Ahmadinejad is like Putin, only not as cool.

[CES]

He's also a hell of a lot more dangerous. Putin and his lackeys are at least willing to attempt diplomatic communication.

[ShivaX]

You have to consider that Iran has a nasty habit of arresting foreign journalists and charging them with espionage as well. Twitter is only managing to get the news out because its private citizens working around the system. Foreign reporters are going to be watched like hawks, asked to leave the country or contained in their hotels by armed men. They can't do that to every civilian in the entire nation, but doing it to a handful of press from out of country is a lot easier.

[Ink Asylum]

I wonder what past crises would have been like with the level of communications technology we have now. The Twitter of Anne Frank?

[Banacek]

You're going on about it! :p All I can tell you is that it was on CNN last night, this morning, and now. I'm not sure how much more coverage this needs before people will stop talking about how "unfairly underreported" this story is in Western sources.

You don't live in LA. If it wasn't about the Lakers, it wasn't on TV. With the large Persian community out here you would think they would at least mention it.

[Serapth]

He's also a hell of a lot more dangerous. Putin and his lackeys are at least willing to attempt diplomatic communication.

Wrong, Putin actually has power.

Here it is firmly in the hands of the Ayatola (sp? ). Point blank, until their rule is toppled, there is no democracy in Iran.

[Serapth]

I wonder how many operatives the US and other western countries have on the ground in Iran aggitating the crowds?

[Ink Asylum]

What? Is it that hard to believe that this is a genuine movement?

[Serapth]

What? Is it that hard to believe that this is a genuine movement?

No, not at all.

Even harder to believe that America doesn't have agents on the ground trying their damnedest to fan the flames, or providing this movement with funding and support.

Look at US foreign affairs history, hell confine your search to just US history in Iranian politics and tell me with a straight face you don't think they have a hand in this?

[Ink Asylum]

New time, new administration. I'll wait for evidence of involvement before I wonder about conspiracies and black ops. The events of this weekend were pretty organic and needed no outside influence to get to where they are now.

[Serapth]

New time, new administration. I'll wait for evidence of involvement before I wonder about conspiracies and black ops. The events of this weekend were pretty organic and needed no outside influence to get to where they are now.

Hmmm, if the new administration wasn't employeeing such tactics, I would be calling for Obama's head. If you can topple a hostile regime from within with the fraction of the cost of developing a single stealth bomber and didnt take the chance, you aren't making good decisions.

[torrefaction]

Hmmm, if the new administration wasn't employeeing such tactics, I would be calling for Obama's head. If you can topple a hostile regime from within with the fraction of the cost of developing a single stealth bomber and didnt take the chance, you aren't making good decisions.

I tend to agree. Even though it's engendered hostility, we should be subtly backing a reformist movement in Iran.

[Ink Asylum]

Because the US fucking with other another country's leadership with good intentions has never come back to bite us in the ass before.

Obama needs to keep his hands off this one. The people of Iran do not need our help fighting their leaders and they are not asking for it. Ahmadinejad would love nothing more than to nab some US agents working to agitate the protestors. It would allow him to paint the opposition as puppets of the US and diminish Mousavi's standing in the eyes of his people.

[Slack3r78]

http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/iranelect_06_15/i27_19360543.jpg

[Banacek]

Hmmm, if the new administration wasn't employeeing such tactics, I would be calling for Obama's head. If you can topple a hostile regime from within with the fraction of the cost of developing a single stealth bomber and didnt take the chance, you aren't making good decisions.

I, for one, hope that the US is staying very far away from what it going on it Iran. The 1950s should be a reminder that we just need to stay away.

[LordDon]

Protesters help a fallen riot policeman to safety.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/mbrightside/iranriotcop.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/mbrightside/12548394-ee7d55f1de99db6a84aa641151.jpg

[Ink Asylum]

I've been seeing that series of images a lot and it's incredibly powerful. I am glad that there are plenty in the crowd that know they are not enemies, that the real enemy is hidden safely away in government buildings.

[Lance Uppercut]

http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/06/12/wtf-nutty-neocons-want-ahmadinegad-to-win-in-iraq-election/

As Iranians go to the polls to elect a president, American neoconservatives are openly rooting not for moderate reform candidate and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi but for anti-U.S. hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This is an obvious sign both of the neocons’ preference for conflict over peace between the U.S. and Iran and of the generally bankrupt state of conservatism in America, reduced now to banking on failure for the Obama administration (see Huffington Post, Rachel Maddow).

[Telefrog]

I think I figured something out.

http://19.media.tumblr.com/vk2J5nU3Loptpybw8TKmfgjVo1_500.jpg

[DoctorFinger]

I don't understand. How is the media ignoring this? The front page of CNN is all about this story. The news this morning was almost nonstop about it.When I woke up this morning I watched CNN for half an hour. They spent more time pondering whether there were enough same sex couples in commercials than they did on Iran. And they were even worse about it Sunday. They've improved their coverage of it, but the damage was done. This weekend there was literally no other news going on that can rival it, but they stayed in soft news mode for way too long.

[BlackPete]

Video of snipers firing into the crowd of protesters. (http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1184614595?bctid=26415347001)

EDIT: CNN can suck it. Hell just about all of the MSM can suck it. It's good that a few of them are finally starting to take the Iranian situation seriously... THREE WHOLE DAYS LATER!

EDIT #2: CNN attempts to defend itself:

BV1CDz-TLFg

[BlackPete]

There's a guy (Tatsuma) over on fark.com who stays up to date on what's happening and below is a copy and paste of what he's got so far: (http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4450672#c51933081)

important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to tehran!

This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.


Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij.

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran. Pictures of people shot, some to death, surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Things very are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

Later, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground. This is very big.

Tomorrow (or today as of the 16th of June)

Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. Plenty of twitter chat about dressing in black.

The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country.

A major showdown is expected to unfold

The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. The Revolution lives on.

Demands from the protesters

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

BBC profile of Montazeri. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3625155.stm)

[BlackPete]

More hi-rez photos. (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html) WARNING: Some are pretty graphic, although you still need to click on them to view them.

[diablopath]

Jesus Christ, this is major shit.

Looking at some of these pictures is just unreal. It's kind of good to see people rise up against injustice on such a great level, though.

[Khrymsyn]

Well,

Foreign media is effectively banned from the streets as reported by the Huffington Post blog, irishtimes.com,and the Austrailian ABC news affiliates.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0616/breaking45.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/06/16/2600167.htm
The Culture Ministry said journalists could continue to work from their offices but that it was cancelling press accreditation for all foreign media.
"No journalist has permission to report or film or take pictures in the city," a Culture Ministry official said.

[Ink Asylum]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e201157119dc65970b-500wi

[torrefaction]

Location and timezone is changed. And I'm wearing all green today, for all the good it will do. Still, it seemed like the right thing to do.

[Goronmon]

Location and timezone changed. This is some crazy stuff.

[Ink Asylum]

Advice on what to do (and not do) on Twitter and the internet regarding Iran.

http://heavenp2.somee.com/helpiraniantwitters.pdf

[BlackPete]

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri released a statement: (http://occident.blogspot.com/2009/06/confirmed-montazeri-questions-election.html)



In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religion”, and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.

I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.


Bolded by me for emphasis. Damn. Just.... damn. That's a STRONG point to use on the police and army.

[BlackPete]

Another update on twitter:

Warning, new twitter feeds are most likely government members trying to spread misinformation, ignore them! Also, there is a handful of good twitter feeds, but please do not publicize their usernames, they are in enough danger as it is and they don't need more publiclity. Those in the know will c/p their entries. Major timeline overhaul, including what has unfolded in the last few hours.

[CES]

Watching Twitter right now is like a car crash. You just can't look away.

A fun fact: Mousavi apparently recieved a phone call the night after the election saying that he won.

[Ink Asylum]

Apparently the State Department asked Twitter to put off their maintenance. (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssTechMediaTelecomNews/idUSWBT01137420090616)

The U.S. State Department contacted the social networking service Twitter over the weekend to urge it to delay a planned upgrade that could have cut daytime service to Iranians, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.

[roboninja]

Apparently the State Department asked Twitter to put off their maintenance. (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssTechMediaTelecomNews/idUSWBT01137420090616)

Wow, a good and timely action from a governemnt office. Who knew?

[torrefaction]

Wow, BlackPete...that is INCREDIBLY powerful. I hope the current Iranian regime backs down in the face of this, otherwise I fear an outright revolution and not a peaceful one.

[torrefaction]

I'm here at work in all green today. I know it really means very little, but I feel a strong sympathy for the people of Iran in this matter, and I feel unable to do much else.

[BlackPete]

The government is pulling a classic misdirection now... they're now showing the protesting crowds on Iranian TV as PRO-Ahmandinejad rather than ANTI.

[torrefaction]

Just read this:: RT @watchman2010RT @JoAnnNYNY RT @marjavan: Threat CONFIRMED! Army moving into Tehran against protesters! PLEASE RT! #IranElection

No idea of legitimacy, but damn...

[CES]

That's been RT'ed for about 90 minutes now.

More fuel. (http://www.shortsshortsshorts.com/?p=3890)

Isn't that interesting?

[torrefaction]

Now they're arresting human rights activists...
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/06/ebadi.html?sc=fb&cc=fp

(Update at 3:30 p.m. ET: She said others who have been arrested include Abdolreza Tajik, a journalist and member of Ebadi's Human Rights Defenders Center; Saeed Hajjarian, a prominent reformer; and Mohammad Ali Abtahi, another leading reformer.)

[torrefaction]

Twitter's down, despite their delayed maintenance. A HUGE part of me wonders if they're experiencing a counter DDoS

[Serapth]

Twitter's down, despite their delayed maintenance. A HUGE part of me wonders if they're experiencing a counter DDoS

prob just traffic, twitter is in the news more than the Oprah factor

[diablopath]

Twitter's down, despite their delayed maintenance. A HUGE part of me wonders if they're experiencing a counter DDoS

Cross post: No. They put out some notices saying they were going down for one hour at 5:00pm EST for server maintenance. It was actually supposed to be sooner, but in recognition of Iranian use of the site, they delayed it until 1:30a.m., Tehran time, so that they don't hinder their efforts too dramatically.

[torrefaction]

It's back up :)

[BlackPete]

It's back up :)

I never thought I'd EVER say this about Twitter but.... thank god.

Right now it's probably the only way for the Iranians to get the news out.

[torrefaction]

I never thought I'd EVER say this about Twitter but.... thank god.

Right now it's probably the only way for the Iranians to get the news out.

The worst part about the downtime is it came not horribly long before they supposedly were going to get rolled on by the army.

[diablopath]

It's still down for me :/

[torrefaction]

Ah, crap, it's only the search feed that's back up. Weird.

[diablopath]

Can we get a list of trusted sources? I've been primarily following two guys:
EDITED OUT: I removed these. I suppose in-country sources shouldn't be named in a public forum like this. I would appreciate if you would PM me any sources, though.

The latter was orchestrating internet warfare, if you want to call it that. He hasn't done anything for almost 3 hours, though. Kiwi has remained active.

I'm seeing mixed things on the army stuff.

[torrefaction]

@Protesterhelp
http://emsenn.com/iran.php


4:49est: Twitter has gone down for maintenance, they said one hour. No contact from Iran yet, informing all of downtime
5:09est: Besiji moving into Tehran university in force.
5:11est: Many bikes and buses in Shiraz being burnt and piled on street. Unconfirmed
5:15est: All news from Tehran University has gone silent
5:30est: Haven't heard news in 15 minutes. From anyone, not even rumors.
5:38est: Massive assault in Tehran University? Getting reports of anything from 200 to 5000 Besij. Students standing in doorways with chairs, waiting for raids.
5:40est: leaving for a while, twitter will be back before I am.
5:41est: Basij seen taking away many students from Tehran University. Most likely to Evin Prison, but that's just my impression

[torrefaction]

The revolution will not be televised, it will be tweeted.

[Sandman]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this event gets some name like the Twitter Revolution or something similar.

[diablopath]

It looks Tehran University was hit, although I'm not sure if it was the Army or not. All information has stopped flowing from there.

[Banacek]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8102406.stm

Who's who from the BBC.

[Lance Uppercut]

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1164187231061& (requires facebook account)

This just leaked. It's supposed to be very recent footage of the imams and Ahamdinejad plotting shit, but I don't understand Farsi.

edit:
oyirzlCO-FA

More recent protest footage. This time, it's doctors and nurses protesting outside a local hospital. Apparently several protesters have died from gunshot wounds inflicted during previous rallies.

At 1:41 one of nurses is shouting "8 people died in this hospital last night". of them1 died by a headshot...which said that poor brave man shoted by sniper. at 1:35 you can see on that board which writen in persian "28 wounded...8 died"

Morning of 16 June...Rasoul Akram Hospital's doctors and nurses are protesting about what happened in the last night gunshots by Goverment's militia (basij) and police. 36 people shots By Gun 8 dies and 28 injured .

[Khrymsyn]

Possibly even the military is getting tired of being ordered to supress thier own countrymen :
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm
It was interesting that the special forces - who normally take the side of Ahmadinejad's Basij militia - were there with clubs and sticks in their camouflage trousers and their purity white shirts and on this occasion the Iranian military kept them away from Mousavi's men and women.

Unfortunately, there are no pictures to corroborate that ATM.



Oh, and once again, Jon Stewart (and crew) seems to have some astute observations :
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=230672&title=irandecision-2009-cnns

[Serapth]

Well, an army is only as loyal as its people. If the Ayatollah loses his military bloc, he is toast.

[Serapth]

You know the scariest part of all this, with the reliance on unverified reports, especially Youtube and Twitter, this could be a War of the Worlds type scam.

I am not saying it is, but it easily could be.

[Khrymsyn]

You know the scariest part of all this, with the reliance on unverified reports, especially Youtube and Twitter, this could be a War of the Worlds type scam.
I am not saying it is, but it easily could be.

Honestly Serapth, that thought has crossed my mind as well. However, I will say these things corroborate at least SOME of what's being told

1) There ARE videos and photographs in existance showing large crowds in protest, as well as violence happening in those crowds.
2) The Media Blackout is definitely NOT a farce. It's been confirmed by multiple news sources that there really is a news blackout.

The media blackout alone makes me lean heavily towards these reports at least partially, if not majority being true. Why would a government black out all news and communications in and out of a country if there was nothing going on?

[Serapth]

Honestly Serapth, that thought has crossed my mind as well. However, I will say these things corroborate at least SOME of what's being told

1) There ARE videos and photographs in existance showing large crowds in protest, as well as violence happening in those crowds.

I haven't seen a photo yet that couldn't easily be doctored or from something else. As to the crowd scenes... that could easily be stock footage. Not to mention that really seems to be an Arab thing. I could bring up thousands of photos of thousands of people in crowds in a middle eastern setting.

Again, not saying it isn't happening, just that well... it could be faked.

[Banacek]

I haven't seen a photo yet that couldn't easily be doctored or from something else. As to the crowd scenes... that could easily be stock footage. Not to mention that really seems to be an Arab thing. I could bring up thousands of photos of thousands of people in crowds in a middle eastern setting.

Again, not saying it isn't happening, just that well... it could be faked.

My friend's brother is still living in Iran. They just had a baby, and they can't take it to the doctors or anything because it is so volatile in the streets. I can guarantee you what is happening over there is real. Persians have hit the breaking point.

[BlackPete]

I haven't seen a photo yet that couldn't easily be doctored or from something else. As to the crowd scenes... that could easily be stock footage. Not to mention that really seems to be an Arab thing. I could bring up thousands of photos of thousands of people in crowds in a middle eastern setting.

Again, not saying it isn't happening, just that well... it could be faked.

If you're talking about Ahmandinejad's supporters, then you are correct:

http://kheirkhah.ir/media/Image/Weblog%202/Keyhan-ehtics.jpg

His rally was doctored to make it seem like he has more supporters than he really does.

As for his opponent... well... there's no doctoring required because his crowds of protestors really are that huge. It's easy to verify for yourself from looking at the multitudes of photos and videos that are already out there.

Plus... why the hell would they want to pull this scam in the first place? It would completely fly in the face of everything that we know about that place.

[Serapth]

Plus... why the hell would they want to pull this scam in the first place? It would completely fly in the face of everything that we know about that place.

( If it was fake, it wouldn't be Iran doing the faking ).

[Slack3r78]

. Not to mention that really seems to be an Arab thing.
Just FYI, one of the easiest ways to offend an Iranian is to call them an Arab. :p

[Ink Asylum]

The identifying theme of the current protests is the color green, which was adopted by Mousavi during his campaign. I doubt there's stock footage out there of hundreds of thousands of Iranians wearing the color green for some other protest.

[Serapth]

Just FYI, one of the easiest ways to offend an Iranian is to call them an Arab. :p

Yeah, but I can't call them Persians after watching 300....

[BlackPete]

( If it was fake, it wouldn't be Iran doing the faking ).

That makes even less sense. Who would want to do that kind of a fake?

[Serapth]

That makes even less sense. Who would want to do that kind of a fake?

Hey, I am not saying it is fake, merely that it is possible.

As to who would benefit from it, well, anyone that wants instability in Iran.

[torrefaction]

Hey, I am not saying it is fake, merely that it is possible.

As to who would benefit from it, well, anyone that wants instability in Iran.

Which is basically the last thing the Obama administration wants to deal with right now, given the current domestic climate.

[RandoM51]

That makes even less sense. Who would want to do that kind of a fake?

A world power seeking to insert a military force into Iran for "humanitarian" purposes. Yes, the little propeller on the beanie is spinning quite fast. :p

[Serapth]

Which is basically the last thing the Obama administration wants to deal with right now, given the current domestic climate.

Yeah, but there sure are alot of stupid Republicans out there still...

[BlackPete]

Yeah, but there sure are alot of stupid Republicans out there still...

OK, but that also assumes they're intelligent and organized enough to pull off a fake on a global scale that fooled everyone.

Not. Gonna. Happen. Freepers can't even string together words properly.

[Serapth]

OK, but that also assumes they're intelligent and organized enough to pull off a fake on a global scale that fooled everyone.

Not. Gonna. Happen. Freepers can't even string together words properly.

I was more thinking it could have been orchistrated by a group like the people behind LARPs like I Love Bees. As a giant hoax, although it would be politically convenient if certain political factions could pull it off. Besides, after some of the previous actions and some of the wierd shit I heard they tried to topple castro, it wouldn't completely shock me.

Once again though, I am not saying this is happening or even am I implying it. I just mention it as a mental exercise. Truth is, the longer the event goes on, the less likely it could have been fake ( as real people get in contact with real contacts and realize the truth, instead of the 6th degrees of Kevin Bacon shit most of us are going through ).

But, in this Twitter age, where CNN is broadcasting facts unvetted, it would be fairly easy to actually fake something like this, at least initially. I wouldn't be surprised if military leaders are looking at this situation and scratching their chins while humming "hmmmmmmmm...."

[BlackPete]

But, in this Twitter age, where CNN is broadcasting facts unvetted, it would be fairly easy to actually fake something like this, at least initially. I wouldn't be surprised if military leaders are looking at this situation and scratching their chins while humming "hmmmmmmmm...."

CNN is certainly behaving really strangely on this issue -- not reporting anything for at least a couple of days, then seriously downplaying the protests.

Amanpour has always been somewhat pro-Ahmandinejad, so I wonder if that's a part of it.

[Slack3r78]

Hey, I am not saying it is fake, merely that it is possible.

As to who would benefit from it, well, anyone that wants instability in Iran.
I saw a link yesterday to this moron (http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/06/proof-israeli-effort-to-destabilize-iran-via-twitter/) who seems convinced that it's an Israeli ploy to destabilize Iran.

[Lance Uppercut]

CLo_6Qp1eTk

This was just videotaped from today. How the hell is this fake?

[Serapth]

CLo_6Qp1eTk

This was just videotaped from today. How the hell is this fake?

Pretty easy actually.

http://www.massivesoftware.com/prime/

Granted, you need 20K to start a team of artists and some beefy computers, but frankly that video wouldn't be beyond the skills of most major CG houses.

[Lance Uppercut]

I don't see your point here. If you're trying to downplay what's happening in Iran, then that's a pretty douchey thing to do.

[Khrymsyn]

I don't see your point here. If you're trying to downplay what's happening in Iran, then that's a pretty douchey thing to do.

I don't think he's trying to downplay anything. I think his main point is, right now, we don't know how accurate either side of this story is, and that some things can be falsified, and none of us would know.

I don't think Serapth ever once said it isn't happening. I think he expressed concern that we could all be being duped due to how all of the information we are getting isn't the most verified on the planet.

He has a point. I don't 100% agree with him, but he does have a valid point.

[Serapth]

As Khrymsyn said, I am not downplaying anything. I am just noticing how the media is reacting to this, the technology involved and the fact this really could be played out as a 21st century War Of the Worlds.

In no way do I think it is, but it is an interesting thought, non the less, especially given how oddly mainstream media is dealing with things.

[Ink Asylum]

This has been going on FAR too long for it to possibly be a fake. Iran is a huge country and while they have locked down the media pretty well they have not done so perfectly. Youtube videos and Twitter posts are NOT the only information that has come out of Iran in the past week. Mainstream media coverage has been poor but we have gotten real information out of foreign journalists and trusted sources.

For this to be fake you would have to believe that the US government, the Iranian government, and pretty much all of the major media including foreign press were working together to fool the world. Forgive me if I do not believe that is possible in the slightest.

War of the Worlds fooled a small group of people who tuned in late for about an hour or so in a time when radio and the telephone were the only communication methods available.

[Serapth]

This has been going on FAR too long for it to possibly be a fake. Iran is a huge country and while they have locked down the media pretty well they have not done so perfectly. Youtube videos and Twitter posts are NOT the only information that has come out of Iran in the past week. Mainstream media coverage has been poor but we have gotten real information out of foreign journalists and trusted sources.

For this to be fake you would have to believe that the US government, the Iranian government, and pretty much all of the major media including foreign press were working together to fool the world. Forgive me if I do not believe that is possible in the slightest.

Not in the least, you just need to convince the first few people of truth and it cascades from there. Mainstream news networks are running with completely unvetted news reports, meaning the initial report may have just been the kindling to get this fire burning. A movement can take on its own momentum and become real, regardless to how fake it was initially.

Again, not saying this is the case, but it could be.

[Serapth]

War of the Worlds fooled a small group of people who tuned in late for about an hour or so in a time when radio and the telephone were the only communication methods available.

Where as now the most reliable communication methods available now is.............. twitter.

[Ink Asylum]

Where as now the most reliable communication methods available now is.............. twitter.

Oh please. You're advancing huge ass conspiracy theories but you don't believe national governments have reliable communications methods even during a mass media shutdown?

Again, for this to possibly be fake it would mean America and Iran are working together. If either one of those were not in on the trick it could never happen. America has more than enough spy and communications technology to determine if millions of people are really protesting or not, and if Iran weren't playing along the fraud wouldn't last a second.

So you would have to believe that Iran and America are working together AND that Iran would, for some insane reason, WANT their government to look weak and corrupt.

The motive is not there nor are the resources. Not possible.

[Serapth]

Oh please. You're advancing huge ass conspiracy theories but you don't believe national governments have reliable communications methods even during a mass media shutdown?

Again, for this to possibly be fake it would mean America and Iran are working together. If either one of those were not in on the trick it could never happen. America has more than enough spy and communications technology to determine if millions of people are really protesting or not, and if Iran weren't playing along the fraud wouldn't last a second.

So you would have to believe that Iran and America are working together AND that Iran would, for some insane reason, WANT their government to look weak and corrupt.

The motive is not there nor are the resources. Not possible.

As I said, I DONT think it is fake, I very much expect this is exactly what has happened, well except for the fact all media coverage is extremely biased one way or the other.

That said, when this started, yes, it *COULD* have been fake, thats the amazing part of it all. How unaware the governments, both ours and theirs, were of modern communication systems. Hell, I don't think we can really blame them either as this twitter stuff is shocking to me as well. Plus, I never expected to see an Iran presidential candidate having a facebook page. Yet watching mainstream press using unvetted sources as their primary sources.......

The fact that their is all this new technology in play ( almost exclusively ), it was rife for fraud or deception. I am not saying it is in this case, but it really could have been.

[BlackPete]

The latest update from Tatsuma so far (http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4452999)... not much has changed over the past few hours. Here's the TL;DR version:

Nothing much has happened in the last hours. There are reports of clerics and ayatollahs meeting in the holy Shiite city of Qom in order to plan to overthrow Khameini as supreme leader, as well as a more and more pro-dissenters stance from the army, but we have nothing substantiated so far. I will yet update this tomorrow, adding further information about various other groups operating in Iran right now and relevant to this revolution.

As of 18PM on the East Coast, all twitter posts about the army being involved are false.
...
morning of the 17th of June - With the end of the fourth wave of violence, we are currently in a wait and see mode. As of right now, there are many rumors involving clerics, Ayatollahs and the Army plotting to overthrow the government, semi-confirmations from credible twitterers, but nothing concrete so far. These would be extremely big development, so it's better to treat them with caution.


Hopefully those reports will hold true.

[Ink Asylum]

Yes, you could fool the media for a few hours probably, AT BEST, but that's it, and even a few hours is pushing it. You'd have to be extremely skilled and lucky to pull that off. Beyond that there are far too many people who would have to be in on the fraud for it to last. This is not remarkable nor is it a new possibility.

In fact, it's LESS likely to happen with each passing year, as people get more connected to each other without traditional filters and more and more people carry a communications device 24/7. This story is proof of that. Iran WANTED to put forward a false story, that there weren't mass protests and everything was under control, but the existence of Twitter and smart phones made that harder than it ever would have been. 50 years ago Iran would've easily been able to shut down communication in and out of their country and put out whatever fiction they wanted.

[Serapth]

In fact, it's LESS likely to happen with each passing year, as people get more connected to each other without traditional filters and more and more people carry a communications device 24/7.

Hard to say. These days there are less control over the message being sent out. That is a two edged sword in that power isn't consolidated in a handful of media companies. At the same time, it also means power isn't consolidated in a handful of media companies. How many examples of a meme getting out of hand can you think of? That, is internet phenomenon.

[Khrymsyn]

Please gang, let's not lose focus here. Serapth posited a "what if" scenario. That's it. That's NOT what this topic is about. Please let's steer it back towards trying to keep track as best as we can to the people in Iran in what may just turn out to be a historic event, and the hopes whatever comes to pass does so with a minimal of bloodshed, shall we?

[Serapth]

Please gang, let's not lose focus here. Serapth posited a "what if" scenario. That's it. That's NOT what this topic is about. Please let's steer it back towards trying to keep track as best as we can to the people in Iran in what may just turn out to be a historic event, and the hopes whatever comes to pass does so with a minimal of bloodshed, shall we?

In some ways, we should actually hope for lots of bloodshed, as horrible as that sounds. If something horrific happens to the point that the military and preferably the Revolutionary Guard stop supporting the clerics, in the long run, the quality of life and the number of deaths would probably net out lower ( long view here ).

Where as, if the Ayatollah ( god I hate that word ), succeeds in satisfying the masses, they will go back to a pretty damned hollow democracy ( hint... if you have a position called "Supreme Leader" you don't live in a democracy! ) with the same clerics calling the shots, the same oppression and generally the same quality of life.

[Serapth]

The biggest shame, if it wasn't for BP ( rebranded as Beyond Petroleum ) but Bastard Profiteers would probably be a more apt accronym. Anyways, if it wasn't for BP and a fledgling CIA, the Iran we know today would never have existed. Granted a few rich white fuckers might not have quite as much money as they do today, but we would probably have a firm ally in the Middle East. At the same time, it would probably mean no revolution, no Iran-Iraq war and ironically, no Desert Storm 1 and 2 and indirectly less massive debt in the US. Ironically, those rich white fuckers that profited in 1953 are the same dynasties that seem to be profiting from the war now....

Oh, to go back in time...

[BlackPete]

Allegations that some Iranian towns exceeded 100% voter turnout: (http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/jun/17/iran-election-rigging)

In the most specific allegations of rigging yet to emerge, the centrist Ayandeh website – which stayed neutral during the campaign – reported that 26 provinces across the country showed participation figures so high they were either hitherto unheard of in democratic elections or in excess of the number of registered electors.

Taft, a town in the central province of Yazd, had a turnout of 141%, the site said, quoting an unnamed "political expert". Kouhrang, in Chahar Mahaal Bakhtiari province, recorded a 132% turnout while Chadegan, in Isfahan province, had 120%.

Ayandeh's source said at least 200 polling stations across Iran recorded participation rates of 95% or above. "This is generally considered scientifically impossible because out of every given cohort of 20 voters, there will be at least one who is either ill, out of the country, has recently died or is unable to participate for some other reasons," the source said. "It is also unprecedented in the history of Iran and all other democratic countries."

The article itself stated these claims cannot be verified, but the numbers are at least consistent.

[BlackPete]

Uh oh... tomorrow could be a bloody day in Iran... (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1905162,00.html) Mousavi is calling for a mass rally.

[Ox]

In some ways, we should actually hope for lots of bloodshed, as horrible as that sounds. If something horrific happens to the point that the military and preferably the Revolutionary Guard stop supporting the clerics, in the long run, the quality of life and the number of deaths would probably net out lower ( long view here ).
This (http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/06/the_politics_of_controlled_crisis.php) is from a totally different context (and I'm not trying to threadjack), but I think this paragraph is applicable:
As far as I'm aware, the actual track record of heightened contradictions is pretty poor. The crisis tends to straggle on far longer than you thought possible, a large number of people suffer, and it turns out that you don't get the exciting new system you were hoping for, but whatever terrible idea looked most expedient during the crisis. See Argentina, Nation of.


The biggest shame, if it wasn't for BP ( rebranded as Beyond Petroleum ) but Bastard Profiteers would probably be a more apt accronym. Anyways, if it wasn't for BP and a fledgling CIA, the Iran we know today would never have existed. Granted a few rich white fuckers might not have quite as much money as they do today, but we would probably have a firm ally in the Middle East. At the same time, it would probably mean no revolution, no Iran-Iraq war and ironically, no Desert Storm 1 and 2 and indirectly less massive debt in the US.
You seem to be hypothesizing that, but for 1953, the young Iranians of 1979 would not have been as virulently anti-American as they were, but the young Iranians of 2009 would be just as pro-American as they are today. The problem with hypotheticals like this is that people like to pretend that only some things would be different. In reality, if I might be forgiven for using such a phrase in a subjunctive discussion, everything would be different, and the sum total of "everything" would not necessarily be better or worse than the actual state.

[Ink Asylum]

Hard to say. These days there are less control over the message being sent out. That is a two edged sword in that power isn't consolidated in a handful of media companies. At the same time, it also means power isn't consolidated in a handful of media companies. How many examples of a meme getting out of hand can you think of? That, is internet phenomenon.

Ok, but I somehow doubt a "meme getting out of hand" would result in a faked protest of hundreds of thousands of people, along with video, pictures, etc.

Essentially you've contradicted yourself here. You agree that it is harder to control a message if power isn't consolidated in a handful of media companies. So, if you were trying to trick the world into believing there was unrest in Iran it would be harder now because too many people have access to the media through the internet.

[Serapth]

This (http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/06/the_politics_of_controlled_crisis.php) is from a totally different context (and I'm not trying to threadjack), but I think this paragraph is applicable:




You seem to be hypothesizing that, but for 1953, the young Iranians of 1979 would not have been as virulently anti-American as they were, but the young Iranians of 2009 would be just as pro-American as they are today. The problem with hypotheticals like this is that people like to pretend that only some things would be different. In reality, if I might be forgiven for using such a phrase in a subjunctive discussion, everything would be different, and the sum total of "everything" would not necessarily be better or worse than the actual state.

Can you imagine a world in which Iran wasn't so rabidly anti American as in 1979 if the Democratic government of 1953 was allowed to survive?

[Ox]

Sure, I can imagine that. But, for example, if Iran had remained a staunch Western ally, the Soviets would have tried much harder to woo Saddam Hussein into their fold. Given the rising tide of Islam and anticolonialism in the region at the time, and especially given Saddam's known expansionary tendencies, it would have been a very good fit for both of them. Remember, it was very difficult for us to keep Saddam out of Moscow's orbit in the 1980s, and the main reason we succeeded is that we were helping him try to beat the stuffing out of Iran. If Iran had been our ally, we couldn't have done that, and Saddam would have invaded Iran with Soviet help.

Then what would have happened? It's hard to say whether the Iran-Iraq War would have been inconclusive if the superpowers had been backing the other dogs, but say it was. Saddam would have been solidly within Moscow's orbit, only to have been left behind like real-world Iran was when the Soviet Union collapsed. But we know that real-world Iraq, despite being a US ally, had no compunction about invading another US ally (Kuwait) in 1990. Why would Saddam have been more hesitant about invading a US ally after having recently participated in a proxy war against us? So Desert Storm 1 would have happened anyway. And how reluctant do you think America would have been to launch another invasion in 2003 against a brutal tyrant, aggressor, and former Soviet ally? We'd be in Iraq today as well. And all of that assumes the general population of Iran, unlike any of our other Muslim allies, would have remained pro-American! It's entirely possible that the conflict between the pro-Western democratic government and the rising tide of pan-Muslim sentiment, stressed by the invasion from Iraq, would have turned out like another very pro-American Muslim ally... namely, Lebanon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War).

Can I imagine a world in which the Iranians of 1979 were not virulently anti-American? Yes. I can also imagine unicorns. I can't quite imagine things working out as you do, though.

[Ink Asylum]

Republican Congressman tweets an attempted parallel between Iranians fighting for their vote to be respected and being in the minority in Congress: (http://twitter.com/petehoekstra/status/2208228550)

Iranian twitter activity similar to what we did in House last year when Republicans were shut down in the House.

He is promptly lambasted in his comments. My favorite:

I didn't put milk in my coffee this morning. It was just like being held in a Vietnamese tiger cage.

[Ox]

I think he was trying to point out how Twitter is useful for groups that otherwise have difficulty getting their message out. Which is not an unreasonable point. But I am continually surprised at how incompetent politicians are at phrasing reasonable points in ways that sound reasonable.

[Ink Asylum]

How about this guy? Another Republican Congressman's tweet: (http://twitter.com/johnculberson/status/2207933622)

Oppressed minorities includeHouseRepubs: We are using social media to expose repression such as last night's D clampdown shutting off amends

You can make a point without referencing an ongoing crisis which is vastly more dreadful than your current minority status in Congress.

[Ink Asylum]

Youtube does the right thing, too. (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/world/middleeast/18press.html?_r=2)

YouTube said it had relaxed its usual restrictions on violent videos to allow the images from Iran to reach the rest of the world.

“In general, we do not allow graphic or gratuitous violence on YouTube,” the company said in a statement. “However, we make exceptions for videos that have educational, documentary, or scientific value. The limitations being placed on mainstream media reporting from within Iran make it even more important that citizens in Iran be able to use YouTube to capture their experiences for the world to see.”

[BlackPete]

Another update:

18th of June - The protests show no signs of slowing down, and the fact that the government has been less violent so far and concentrating on discrediting the protesters instead shows that they are losing grip and painfully aware of all the attention given to what is happening right now, CNN notwithstanding. It's also a worrying step, because the moment they start feeling they are losing grip even more is the moment where they might begin to unleash brutal waves of violence again, much worse than what we've seen so far.

- There is a (so far) quiet march going on, where all the protesters are dressed in black and mourning those who have died so far. The crowds are estimated to be as big as they have been for the last few days, so that puts them between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000 in Tehran alone.

- The State TV has been turned into a full-blown anti-Revolution machine, constantly hammering on how evil the "thugs" who are smashing around private property are. Problem is that those thugs are in fact Basij dressed in green, but IRIB is reporting it as pro-Moussavi supporters. They have also been showing documentaries about the evils of the internet and how the US, UK and Israel are behind the protests. State Radio is not much better, with talking heads calling for the death of those evil thugs destabilizing the country at the behest of external forces. They have also issued false reports that Moussavi was "condeming the rioters".

- The Government has closed Iran to all foreign communication and coverage, according to many reports. It would also seem that the Iranian government has opened an account in the name of Ayatollah Khameini on Twitter. There are reports that senior aides to all reformist candidates have been arrested, but it has yet to be corroborated and this is not the first time we hear such reports.

- According to Reuters, Iranian prosecutors have warned of the death penalty for the rioters who are involved in violence. Islamic cleric have warned that not going to Friday's prayer service makes you worthy of the death penalty. It is unclear yet what isn't worthy of death penalty at this point if you protest against the regime.

- All the violence reported over Iran is now exclusively done by the Basij, Ansar and, if the rumours are true, Hizbullah and Hamas. The police have completely stopped participating in the repression of the population, and both the Army and IRG are standing still and not doing anything. This is good news, but the Basij are sadly not reducing the level of violence they are unleashing on the population, beating up everyone they can get their hands on. It continued all throughout the night and during the day, but due to the mass of people involved it seems that they are restraining themselves when it comes to the mass rallies, preferring to pick isolated targets.

- Universities have cancelled all exams all over the country, and a long list of rebel students was given to all universities and they have to report the students, who are to be arrested on sight.

- There have been a few confirmed cases of people threatened inside the United States for providing proxies for the revolution. Their details were available on the internet so they were passed around pro-Government forces. If you are helping this revolution, be careful to do so as anonymously as you can. It doesn't mean you are risking your life, but it could potentially result in harrassment or vandalism.

[BlackPete]

Iran Intelligence Ministry: We foiled foreign terrorists on election day. (http://televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=floater_blog&id=11373)

Terrorists from the US, UK, and Isreal.

[DoctorFinger]

Mousavi has been issued an ultimatum (http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/18/tomorrow-tiananmen-in-tehran/): stand with Khomeni at Friday prayers and accept the election results, or else. Looks like things are about to escalate.

[BlackPete]

It looks like Friday will be a big day for Iran. I'll be wearing green tomorrow for sure.

[BlackPete]

PK on Twitter: We have unconfirmed reports that there is dissent among commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Force

If true, this could be huge.

[DoctorFinger]

Supposedly they're arresting officers of the IRGC who weren't on board with the head smashing to come tomorrow.

[Lance Uppercut]

I've been wearing green shirts under my scrubs as often as my wardrobe lets me this week. It seems like a pointless way to support the protesters, but it's better than nothing.

[Slack3r78]

Wait, are you fucking kidding me? The House Republicans are seriously trying to compare their position to that of a people that have been brutally oppressed for the past 30 years?

And the GOP wonders why they've become fucking irrelevant.

[Generation ABXY]

I'll be wearing green tomorrow for sure.

Just out of curiosity, why exactly?

[Lance Uppercut]

mVzSm6ecB84

Attacks on protesters aren't limited to Tehran. This video was taken in the northern Iran city of Rasht, and it shows Basij punching and kicking a young woman.

[DoctorFinger]

Just out of curiosity, why exactly?Green is the color of Mousavi's movement. It's like the Orange revolution in the Ukraine a few years back.

[Generation ABXY]

Green is the color of Mousavi's movement. It's like the Orange revolution in the Ukraine a few years back.

Oh, sorry, I got that much. I just didn't understand the point of wearing it here...unless BlackPete is in Iran, in which case never mind.

[Serapth]

Oh, sorry, I got that much. I just didn't understand the point of wearing it here...unless BlackPete is in Iran, in which case never mind.

Show of international support, also makes it hard for their leaders to paint us as the great Satan when we are showing support but not meddling.

[BlackPete]

Mousavi also (apparently but tough to verify) appealed to international capital cities to wear green tomorrow as a sign of support.

On that note.... take that, Ahmandinejad:

http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/7426/twitter.jpg

[BlackPete]

Canada speaks up: (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gmm1DeJv2GVtjqXgpJT8YCE8rp-g)

OTTAWA (AFP) — Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon rejected on Thursday Tehran's urging that Ottawa "stay out" of Iran's internal politics.

Earlier, Canada was advised through its charge d'affaires in Tehran to "stay out of our politics," after having raised concerns over post-election tumult in Iran, Cannon told public broadcaster CBC.

"And we will not," he said. "We will continue to promote democracy. We will continue to challenge Iran on human rights.

[Jackel]

Canada speaks up: (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gmm1DeJv2GVtjqXgpJT8YCE8rp-g)
I'm pretty sure that the reason for this stand is Canada has had some issues with reporters (I'm sure Serapth can give you names) who were killed / tortured in Iran recently.

[BlackPete]

Are you referring to Zahra Kazemi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zahra_Kazemi)? That was in 2003, so while that didn't do wonders for Canadian/Iranian relations, I doubt that was why they decided to make a stand on the Iranian election issues. The other journalist you're probably thinking of was mentioned in the article I linked to, but Iran already released the journalist with an apology for the "misunderstanding":

On Monday, Canada called in Iran's top diplomat in Ottawa to explain the detention of Canadian journalist covering anti-government protests in Tehran.

Toronto's Globe and Mail newspaper said Iranian riot police had arrested one of its freelancers on Sunday, but released him after a few hours, telling him there had been a "terrible misunderstanding."

No, I think it's just because Canada has a pretty strong stance on human rights, and they've always waggled a finger at countries who like to give their civilians a beating now and then.

Plus Canada doesn't have the political baggage with Iran like the US does, so it's hard for the mullahs to paint Canada as the Great Satan.

[Jackel]

For some reason I thought there was one more recent, but I can't seem to find the article.

[Lance Uppercut]

Since Monday's rally, which I also participated in, I saw that every type of person in Tehran is participating in these rallies. Even women in chadors, wealthy people from north Tehran, but also poorer people from central and south Tehran.

It seems that people are unified. We want the cancellation of this election and a re-election.

I've never been politically active before if you mean in terms of an organized way, only in terms of staying informed and being interested in what's going on. I've never been in a protest before.

My reason to participate was first of all, just to be there. ... If I don't go, my space would be empty. I'm just an ordinary guy in Iran, so I felt it was my duty to make changes, step by step, to get a better future.

I used to feel alienated in Iran, like I wasn't part of things, but now I feel like everyone feels the way I do. I used to think it was just me and those around me who are fed up with this government, but now I see a lot of people are fed up with this system. So I think this is the first step toward reaching a full democracy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090618/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_protester_2

[BlackPete]

Uh oh... (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBVYqbjZgyxQ) I have a bad feeling about this:

Hundreds of thousands of supporters of the primary Iranian presidential challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, dispersed peacefully last night after gathering in central Tehran for a sixth day of demonstrations following the disputed June 12 election.

Khamenei will lead prayers at about 1 p.m. in Tehran in the presence of the Basij, the voluntary militia which has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, the group said in a statement on state-run Mehr news agency. The militia warned the defeated candidates to “explicitly dissociate themselves from the rioters.”

I really really really hope my fears are unfounded. But still... the Basij? Damn.

[ShivaX]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_IRAN_ELECTION?SITE=SCCHA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran's supreme leader sternly warned of a crackdown if protesters continue days of massive street rallies, escalating the government's showdown with demonstrators demanding a new presidential election.

In his first response to a week of protests of the disputed election, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said opposition leaders "will be held accountable for all the violence, bloodshed and rioting" if they do not halt the rallies.

Khamenei also said the balloting had not been rigged, and he sided with hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, offering no concessions to the opposition. He effectively ruled out any chance for a new vote, lauding the June 12 election as an expression of the people's will.


Not that suprising, though I think he underestimates the intelligence of the Iranian people with this:

Khamenei said the 11 million votes that separated Ahmadinejad from his top opponent, Mousavi, were proof that fraud did not occur.

"If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?" Khamenei asked.

Er... if it was fraud you'd be making up the numbers, so you can make up whatever number you wanted. I don't see the Iranian people buying this as an argument if they can count or understand the concept of lying.

[Ink Asylum]

"If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?" Khamenei asked.

Wow. That's pure, unadulterated arrogance right there.

[BlackPete]

Wow. That's pure, unadulterated arrogance right there.

This is Chewbacca. He's a wookie. WTF is he doing here? That doesn't make sense, therefore these allegations of fraud don't make sense.

QED.

[Narradisall]

This is Chewbacca. He's a wookie. WTF is he doing here? That doesn't make sense, therefore these allegations of fraud don't make sense.

QED.

My god..... he's using the Chewbacca defense! :eek:

[Khrymsyn]

Something tells me the situation in Iran is about to get darker...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090619/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election_297
The late-night cries of "Allahu Akbar!" and "Death to the Dictator!" throughout Tehran Friday are a direct challenge to the cleric who has ultimate authority under Iran's constitution. They come hours after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned opposition supporters to stop protesting the June 12 election they say was rigged in favor of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

I'd guess that means either
A) The uprising is put down forcefully, and fades away...
or, what I suspect may be more likely...
B) The uprising is attempted to be put down forcefully, creating martyrs and strenghtening the resolve of the people.

Times like these I truly feel insignificant on this planet. I just hope whatever turns out in the end, it improves the lives for the people over there in the long run. Also goes to show that sometimes violence is the only thing to finally solve an argument unfortunately.

[Ink Asylum]

http://www.theatlantic.com/images/issues/200906u/iranprotests.jpg

[Doogie2K]

Dr. Seuss does political commentary? Who knew?

[Narradisall]

I love Dr Seuss

[Lance Uppercut]

A number of street-savvy youth have taken to the streets to find and confront the basijis that are terrorizing innocent people.

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

The Basiji's are not.

These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.

Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis.

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/06/the_four_iran_s/

It's like The Warriors, but Iranian.

[Ink Asylum]

Dr. Seuss does political commentary? Who knew?

He really did:

http://www.lindasog.com/pics08/03/seuss5.jpg

http://orpheus.ucsd.edu/speccoll/dspolitic/pm/1942/20101cs.jpg

http://orpheus.ucsd.edu/speccoll/dspolitic/pm/1942/20626cs.jpg

http://www.thetalentshow.org/images/seuss-tax.gif

[Generation ABXY]

Dr. Seuss does political commentary? Who knew?

Everyone.

EDIT:

He really did:

Damn. Beat me to it.

[Doogie2K]

Everyone.

EDIT:



Damn. Beat me to it.

Clearly I didn't. Then again, I'm not familiar with 1940s American political cartooning, being a Canadian who grew up in the 1990s. ;)

[Wraith]

Found on slashdot (http://yro.slashdot.org/story/09/06/19/1737207/Man-Attacked-In-Ohio-For-Providing-Iran-Proxies):"electronicmaji is reporting on the Daily Kos that the individual known as ProtesterHelp (also to be found on twitter) was attacked in Ohio for providing network security for Twitterers in Iran, setting up private networks to provide secure proxies, calling for media networks to remove the Iranians Twitterers information from their broadcast, and providing counter-intelligence services (including Basiji and Army Locations) within the Twitter community. ProtesterHelp was allegedly attacked by a group of men while walking to class in Ohio. The men, who appeared to ProtesterHelp to be either Iranian or Lebanese, drove up besides him and threw rocks at him while shouting, 'Mousavi Fraud.' ProtesterHelp further reported that his personal information has been leaked, and is currently being spread both online and inside of Iran amongst the government."

[Ink Asylum]

Wow. That's scary shit.

[Generation ABXY]

Clearly I didn't. Then again, I'm not familiar with 1940s American political cartooning, being a Canadian who grew up in the 1990s. ;)

Yes, I really should have said, "everyone else." To point of fact, though, many of Seuss' works have some political commentary; I particularly like the story behind Horton Hears a Who.

[Narradisall]

Wow. That's scary shit.

Yea, "We're reasonable enough not to rig and election, but if you help our opposition WE'LL FUCKING HUNT YOU DOWN"

Whens the nuclear war again?

[DoctorFinger]

It's getting ugly today (http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/20/iranian-police-throwing-teargas-at-protestors-in-tehran/).

There was a bombing at Khomeni's mosque, which some are calling Iran's Reichstag Fire. The crowds are claiming that tear gas, water cannons and some sort of burning agent are being used on them. A quote from a blogger who has been following diligently. Anecdotally, after following them all week, I can tell you that the tone of Iranian twitterers is strikingly different from what it’s been before. Some are openly asking people to pray for them. The fear (http://twitter.com/StopAhmadi/statuses/2253820639) is palpable.

[J Arcane]

Apparently the "bombing" is a hoax:

Update (AP): A HuffPo reader reports that the news about a bombing at Khomeini’s shrine appears to be yet another regime lie:

“I’m watching state TV here in Dubai and they just did a report on the bombing at the mausoleum. There was NO DAMAGE. All they showed was a broken window saying the “terrorists” luckily blew themselves up outside the building before doing any damage inside. The “bombing” was clearly a fraud as there was NO DAMAGE done to the mausoleum other than a broken window they showed at the entrance of the building. It clearly looked like there was NO BOMBING, no explosion fragments or blood shown just one shattered window. Also a correction to my previous e-mail. The program said the youths had been talking to “friends” in the U.K. and the U.S. on the phone about causing destruction in Iran rather than actually going to the U.S. and being trained. Important difference but the subtext is the same. They’re clearly building a case for foreign interference i.e. the U.K and U.S.”

[torrefaction]

It's sad it's come to this, but amazing to see what appears to be the makings of a full blown revolution.

[Banacek]

Iran's Mousavi says ready for martyrdom-witness (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSHAF058781)

Also, there is video out there of a girl shot in the throat by the Basij. It's horrific and damning. Shipping in thugs to do the dirty work has pretty much guaranteed a full-blown revolution.

[Banacek]

The White House press release (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-from-the-President-on-Iran/)

[Slack3r78]

One thing that has struck me is the relatively important role women seem to be playing in the protests.

[Lance Uppercut]

One thing that has struck me is the relatively important role women seem to be playing in the protests.

What strikes me as interesting is that the women also have a unique form of protesting in putting on makeup and generally looking hot (if I understand correctly, there are rules against this in Iran).

[Narradisall]

What strikes me as interesting is that the women also have a unique form of protesting in putting on makeup and generally looking hot (if I understand correctly, there are rules against this in Iran).

That reminds me I saw a news broadcast where they interviewed some of the protestors, and the woman was wearing the full Iranian headgear while also wearing some stereotypical Ibiza beach babes HUGE sunglasses. It looked so weird and out of place.

[Generation ABXY]

Iran's Mousavi says ready for martyrdom-witness (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSHAF058781)

Also, there is video out there of a girl shot in the throat by the Basij. It's horrific and damning. Shipping in thugs to do the dirty work has pretty much guaranteed a full-blown revolution.

I have to say, that video of the woman was rather chilling indeed. I can't imagine people are just going to be hushed easily with such striking moments as that. Luckily, I hear some of the embassies over there are taking in wounded, which should give them some reprieve.

[Serapth]

That reminds me I saw a news broadcast where they interviewed some of the protestors, and the woman was wearing the full Iranian headgear while also wearing some stereotypical Ibiza beach babes HUGE sunglasses. It looked so weird and out of place.

You know, I would take a burkha over those stupid fucking glasses any day!!!

[Serapth]

Iran's Mousavi says ready for martyrdom-witness (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSHAF058781)

Also, there is video out there of a girl shot in the throat by the Basij. It's horrific and damning. Shipping in thugs to do the dirty work has pretty much guaranteed a full-blown revolution.

The funny part is, Mousavi is part of the system and rather a dick, by western ideals. I hope people don't go making him a saint, because I have a feeling he isn't. I really hope this movement isn't centered around him, because I don't think he is much of a leader.

Actually, I think we may have heard the last of him. The whole "readying for martyrdom" was posted on his face book page, not necessarily from him. He has been mum since the whole threats became targeted at him.

[Whunpo]

The funny part is, Mousavi is part of the system and rather a dick, by western ideals. I hope people don't go making him a saint, because I have a feeling he isn't. I really hope this movement isn't centered around him, because I don't think he is much of a leader.

I agree completely. When a political movement is too centered around one person, it can end up for the worst. Castro and Cuba, for instance.

[J Arcane]

I agree completely. When a political movement is too centered around one person, it can end up for the worst. Castro and Cuba, for instance.
Or Obama . . . ;)

[EternalGamer]

It's sad it's come to this, but amazing to see what appears to be the makings of a full blown revolution.

For the first time, I see the value of social networking sites to people in this situition. Information can no longer be limited or controlled. This is what revolution looks like in the age of technology.

[EternalGamer]

Or Obama . . . ;)

Awful lot of the people on the left see him as being a roadblock to real political change based upon some of his policy decisions during these first five months. So I'm not sure what "movement" you think he is leading and who is followers are. And he is getting almost as much heat these days on MSNBC as he is on Fox.

At any rate, no need to derail the the thread into an argument that will go nowhere...

[J Arcane]

Awful lot of the people on the left see him as being a roadblock to real political change based upon some of his policy decisions during these first five months. So I'm not sure what "movement" you think he is leading and who is followers are. And he is getting almost as much heat these days on MSNBC as he is on Fox.

At any rate, no need to derail the the thread into an argument that will go nowhere...
Well, of course, he's already been elected. Once they're in, they're in. Now they're stuck with him.

Sure looked a lot different half a year ago though, now didn't it?

[EternalGamer]

Well, of course, he's already been elected. Once they're in, they're in. Now they're stuck with him.

Sure looked a lot different half a year ago though, now didn't it?

I remain somewhat ambivalent on a number of issues as to what I think of his approach and I'm never going to agree with any politician 100%. I'll certainly give him a lot more time than five months before I judge whether or not his long term strategies are effective. I was simply pointing out that Obama isn't a leader of a "movement" whom everyone follows blindly and that even a lot of his supporters have serious criticisms. Whether you are talking about the environmental movement, the anti-war movement, or the gay rights movements, there are alot of "movements" full of people who voted for him but have criticisms of his actions thus far. They don't see him as the faultless leader of their movements just because they supported him over the alternative.

[Lance Uppercut]

Also, there is video out there of a girl shot in the throat by the Basij. It's horrific and damning. Shipping in thugs to do the dirty work has pretty much guaranteed a full-blown revolution.

That video was extremely hard to watch.

[EternalGamer]

First hand accounts courtesy of the Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124537040666029677.html

[Doogie2K]

I remain somewhat ambivalent on a number of issues as to what I think of his approach and I'm never going to agree with any politician 100%. I'll certainly give him a lot more time than five months before I judge whether or not his long term strategies are effective. I was simply pointing out that Obama isn't a leader of a "movement" whom everyone follows blindly and that even a lot of his supporters have serious criticisms. Whether you are talking about the environmental movement, the anti-war movement, or the gay rights movements, there are alot of "movements" full of people who voted for him but have criticisms of his actions thus far. They don't see him as the faultless leader of their movements just because they supported him over the alternative.

I think what J's saying is that the latter stages of the election in particular had a bit of a cult of personality feel to it, intentional or not. Just think of the iconic image that turned into an Internet meme.

Of course, now everyone has their agreements and disagreements. Once the euphoria of the election wore off, he became just another politician. But before that, everything was about Obama, and not so much Obama's policies.

[Sandman]

If other nations start getting involved this thing could turn into World War 3 easily.

[CES]

If other nations start getting involved this thing could turn into World War 3 easily.

Hyperbole much?

The UN lack the balls to even think about stepping in like that, not when they'll have everyone from the Saudi's to the Syrians screaming murder.

There's also the fact that there's multiple Coalition naval ships and thousands of soldiers well within striking range of Iran's western and southern sections are currently tied up with Iraq.

[Slack3r78]

Hyperbole much?

The UN lack the balls to even think about stepping in like that, not when they'll have everyone from the Saudi's to the Syrians screaming murder.

There's also the fact that there's multiple Coalition naval ships and thousands of soldiers well within striking range of Iran's western and southern sections are currently tied up with Iraq.

Land boundaries:
total: 5,440 kilometres (3,380 mi)
border countries: Afghanistan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan) 936 kilometres (582 mi), Armenia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia) 35 kilometres (22 mi), Azerbaijan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan)-proper 432 kilometres (268 mi), Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakhchivan) exclave 179 kilometres (111 mi), Iraq (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq) 1,458 kilometres (906 mi), Pakistan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) 909 kilometres (565 mi), Turkey (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey) 499 kilometres (310 mi), Turkmenistan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan) 992 kilometres (616 mi)

Hey, look, a bunch of countries that have fairly positive relations with the West.

Also, Iran is a Shia majority state in a Sunni dominated region.

Chances of internal Iranian strife turning into a widescale conflict? Slim.

[Lance Uppercut]

I'm hearing several things about a general strike planned in the next couple of days. This could very well be the straw that breaks the Iranian govt's back, especially if oil workers and shopkeepers will be involved. Especially the oil workers.

edit: In other related news, there's been quite a bit of unrest at the top, as the Assembly of Experts (an authority higher than Khameini's) are discussing ways to change the structure of power in the Iranian theocracy. Essentially, they want to squeeze Khameini out. No doubt this is in response to the family of the top cleric and leader of the Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, being arrested (and later released).

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/06/21/76567.html (possibly NSFW, as there are some graphic pictures of dead protesters in the article)

[BlackPete]

Tatsuma has a new update (http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4463219#c52122589)... things are pretty intense over there (to say the least):

21st of June.

Two major events happened today:

- Grand Ayatollah Montazeri went directly against Ayatollah Khamenei's wishes and declared a 3-day mourning period in Iran, while Khamenei had ordered mosques to avoid making ceremonies in the memory of the fallen victims of governmental violence.

- The Guardian Council admitted that in 50 cities, there were in fact more vote recorded than there are registered voters and said they were looking into the situation. Seeing as the GC is under direct control of Khamenei, this is very likely an attempt at damage control from people who have yet to grasp how deep the schism in Iran is. This could be an attempt to ultimately blame Ahmadinejad for the irregularities and throw him under the bus in order to save their skin, which would be a sign they don't fully realize yet what is happening.

- Aside from that, as expected there were clashes all over Iran, but subsided since the 20th. The Iranian Government went on the offensive, kicking out a BBC correspondent and attacking Western countries for what they see as meddling in Iranian internal affairs. Tomorrow Mousavi has called for a general strike all over Iran. It seems that business activity that the already paralyzed country will be stopped completely.

From the 19th to the 20th of June. post-Khamenei speech.

If anyone doubted this is a Revolution and that this was bigger than the election, there is no such doubt anymore. While Khameini directly called for them to stop, the population took the street more numerous than ever. This is direct defiance to the Supreme Leader. Here are the major events that happened between the end of Khamenei's speech and midnight on Saturday.

- Before the protest even began, heavily armed men were waiting for the dissidents, planning to prevent them from reaching the rally point. It didn't take long for the peaceful protests to turn into full-fledged riots. Security forces had also closed off the Tehran university to prevent students from leaving to protest or entering to take shelter. Basij, some security forces and what is suspected to be members of the Revolutionary Guard assaulted the protesters. The protesters fought back while chanting "Death to Khamenei" and "Down with Khamenei". The security forces used water cannons and tear gas to try and disperse the protesters. While the tear gas was partly successful, the water cannons were mostly useless, as they were quickly over ran by the protesters.

- A lot of eyewitnesses report that the Basij now fighting appear to be barely older than teenagers, most of them between 16 and 20, taking a real pleasure in the violence. Others report that up to hundreds of both security forces and Basij were injured in the last series of clashes. The Basij forces are using pvc tubes filled with concretes, bats, even knives and are assaulting people everywhere, down to metro stations.

- A bomb exploded at the Khomeini Shrine, killing one and injuring at least two. Most believe that the government is in fact behind it. Khamenei was a major figure of the previous Revolution, and they used a similar tactics then, destroying buildings and blaming it on the Shah in order to turn the population against him. The State television is of course blaming Mousavi for it and calling for a harsher treatment of the protesters. This is also very convenient for the Regime, has Mousavi said he would take refuge there if he feared for his safety, but now all access is blocked.

- In return, the harsher the treatment of protesters by the security forces, the harsher the rhetoric and reaction of the protesters. They are calling for the death of the regime, the death of Khamenei, the death of their oppressors and that they will avenge them. Once the gun shots started, the protesters went wild, beating down security forces and basij forces they caught to a pulp, while the Basij and security forces are showing absolutely no restraint, even less than they previously had.

- There are many reports that the security forces and Basij still ever present in hospitals and clinics. Basij are kidnapping some of those injured, while the security forces is identifying those participating in the protest. In order to arrest protesters, security forces raided the Khomeini Hospital in order to arrest injured protesters. There are rumours that Basij forces have hijacked ambulances and use them as a trap to brutally assault already injured protesters seeking help, or shoot at them. Iranian journalists, Reformist intellectuals and feminists are still being arrested and rounded up to prevent from reporting the news or reaching out.

- As the protests grew, extreme measures started to used by those trying to repress the Iranians asking for freedom. Gun shots were first fired in the air, but it did not take long for them to be fired at the protesters. A liquid was dropped from helicopters, creating severe skin burns on protesters. We are unsure what the liquid was. They are also openly opening fire on the crowds, 40 to 60 people at least were killed in a single day, and scores more injured according to protesters. There are also reports that Revolutionary Guard Helicopters dropped firearms crates to 500 Basij fighters, as they are more willing than government forces to use them on civilians.

- The protesters are fighting back, taking over anti-riot trucks and burning them, attacking Basij bases and burning another one to the ground. There are report that a security forces truck was actually blown up by the protesters. In many instances, government forces have been force to fled under the constant assault of the people. Another report mentioned a security forces post was burning as well.

- The Iran Fatemiyeh Hospital in Tehran has confirmed at least 40 dead as well as 200 injured. Other sources report that hundreds of security forces and hundreds of basij fighters were injured as well.

- At night the protesters joined each others on the roofs in Tehran, shouting "Allah-u Ackbar", "Margh Bar Khamenei" and chanting "I will welcome death, I will welcome death, but no subjugation, but no subjugation". None of the rhetoric is addressed to Ahmadinejad anymore, all of it is directed to Khamenei and the regime. Many of the popular chants throughout the day were "I will kill those who killed my brother/sister", "Death to the Government", "Death to Khamenei" and "Seyed Ali Pinoshe, Iran won't be Chile".

- China has been censoring all news coming from Iran. Obama's restraint has been useless, as the Iranian government has shown a video of him with a false translation where Obama declared his support for the protesters, and that they should keep on protesting.

- Mousavi gave a speech and declared that if he is arrested, then the whole nation should strike. He also told the people that he is ready for martyrdom.

- There are unconfirmed reports that the Army is now refusing to follow orders and will not attack the protesters. The newest strategy from the government seems to be arming the Basij, dressing them in riot gear, team them up with IRG soldiers, and try to prevent massive rallies and keep them localized instead, as they are easier to stop spreading.

Bolded part is mine. It's looking more and more likely that a strike will happen.

[Slack3r78]

In case you were wondering, shit just got real:

http://twitter.com/StopAhmadi/status/2281467910

Earlier in the day, there were several tweets saying that the government had been posting photos of protesters asking people to identify them. Guess that got turned the fuck around.

[diablopath]

http://www.hulu.com/watch/16771/saturday-night-live-digital-short-iran-so-far#s-p1-st-i1
For some comedic relief...

[Lance Uppercut]

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/371/aper.jpg

From a state-run paper. The headline reads, "$400 Million CIA Budget For Creating Riots After The Election."

[ShivaX]

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/371/aper.jpg

From a state-run paper. The headline reads, "$400 Million CIA Budget For Creating Riots After The Election."

Its only takes $400 Million to cause a revolt in a country? We've been doing this the wrong way for quite a while apparently.

[Generation ABXY]

Do you mean the U.S.'s CIA, or is that some organization over there?

[Khrymsyn]

Does you mean the U.S.'s CIA, or is that some organization over there?

Pretty sure it is referring to US CIA. The govt over there have been hinting stronger and stronger each day that the "West" is interfering and is the whole reason this is escalating.

[J Arcane]

Pretty sure it is referring to US CIA. The govt over there have been hinting stronger and stronger each day that the "West" is interfering and is the whole reason this is escalating.
The only way "the West" is interfering is by showing Iran's people what a free country looks like.

[ShivaX]

The only way "the West" is interfering is by showing Iran's people what a free country looks like.

And inventing the internet and complex cell phones.

Which is why I'm getting annoyed by the calls on the right for Obama to "do more" regarding Iran. Hes got the right idea. We fucked over things with the Shah and they aren't going to forget it. Hell they're accusing fucking France of interfering with things. I think the right choice is denouncing the violence and restriction of free speech and ignoring the whole election angle completely (and even then not saying too much).

Since that what all the Iranians seem to want us to do, it seems like a reasonable strategy.

[J Arcane]

And inventing the internet and complex cell phones.

Which is why I'm getting annoyed by the calls on the right for Obama to "do more" regarding Iran. Hes got the right idea. We fucked over things with the Shah and they aren't going to forget it. Hell they're accusing fucking France of interfering with things. I think the right choice is denouncing the violence and restriction of free speech and ignoring the whole election angle completely (and even then not saying too much).

Since that what all the Iranians seem to want us to do, it seems like a reasonable strategy.
It's all the rest of the West and the UN are going to do, and with us caught up in two bloody wars, we couldn't do anything more even if it WAS a good idea, which it most certainly isn't. We'd only fuck things up more, and give further fuel to the rest of the extremists in the Middle East.

[Serapth]

Bullshit, the West has its aggitators as well. Look at the above post from Tatsuma, with a body count much higher than any other source heard yet. The people of the west want this to get bloody and for the established regime to fail and it is extremely obvious in the reporting.

[Banacek]

Bullshit, the West has its aggitators as well. Look at the above post from Tatsuma, with a body count much higher than any other source heard yet. The people of the west want this to get bloody and for the established regime to fail and it is extremely obvious in the reporting.

I believe Tatsuma is Israeli, so his account should also be taken with a grain of salt. Somewhere out there is the truth, just be sure to know your sources.

[Slack3r78]

And inventing the internet and complex cell phones.

Which is why I'm getting annoyed by the calls on the right for Obama to "do more" regarding Iran. Hes got the right idea. We fucked over things with the Shah and they aren't going to forget it. Hell they're accusing fucking France of interfering with things. I think the right choice is denouncing the violence and restriction of free speech and ignoring the whole election angle completely (and even then not saying too much).

Since that what all the Iranians seem to want us to do, it seems like a reasonable strategy.
Khomeini and Company have been trying to manufacture quotes showing Obama is meddling for just that reason.

Pretty bad when the right wants Obama to behave in the same manner that the Ayatollah does.

[BlackPete]

Tatsuma is Isreali, so he's obviously biased in favor of the Revolution if only to get rid of the guy who said "Isreal should fade from the pages of time."

Still, he's been more or less objective in most of his reporting and his biases have been underlined so you can see where he's coming from. He's still doing a hell of a lot more than CNN or any other MSM outlet is doing, which is quite sad when you think about it.

[Serapth]

Pretty bad when the right wants Obama to behave in the same manner that the Ayatollah does.

The right are a bunch of fucking idiots with a strategy consisting of political pandering and saying whatever the opposite of what Obama says, regardless to how fucking stupid it makes them sound. That is, with a few exceptions, a very scarce few :(

[BlackPete]

I can't help but wonder if the GOP is simply telling Obama he should step up simply because it'd be the opposite of what he's currently doing, or if they're honestly and seriously THAT stupid and have no long-term thinking skills.

It could be both.

I refuse to consider a third option: They're warmongers who are just itching for a third war front.

[ShivaX]

I can't help but wonder if the GOP is simply telling Obama he should step up simply because it'd be the opposite of what he's currently doing, or if they're honestly and seriously THAT stupid and have no long-term thinking skills.

It could be both.

I refuse to consider a third option: They're warmongers who are just itching for a third war front.

Well considering their platform since the election has basically been "The opposite of whatever Obama says" I'm pretty sure thats what it is. Add in a pile of ignorance and stupidity for flavor (I'm betting most members of Congress don't even know what we did).

[Generation ABXY]

I don't really think we should get involved (but I'd say that about most things), but I am curious what makes Iran so different than some other pet issues on the left. I mean, I'm always hearing about how the U.S. needs to step in and do something regarding some of the other human rights issues in the world (usually some African country or another), but on this there seems to be a sort abject silence.

Why is that, exactly - is it just because intervention didn't work out so well in the past?

[BlackPete]

I don't really think we should get involved (but I'd say that about most things), but I am curious what makes Iran so different than some other pet issues on the left. I mean, I'm always hearing about how the U.S. needs to step in and do something regarding some of the other human rights issues in the world (usually some African country or another), but on this there seems to be a sort abject silence.

Why is that, exactly - is it just because intervention didn't work out so well in the past?

When it comes to Iran, the US has definitely been there done that, and fucked it up royally. This time they should stay the hell away.

I don't know about lefties in general, but in the case of Iraq, they were pretty consistent: Stay the hell out and don't invade countries. African countries such as the Congo, Sudan, Darfur, etc... I think it was partly to counter the Iraq bullshit excuse of, "Well we had to invade because Saddam was a really bad man who kills his own people..."

Of course, there will always be people who thinks the US needs to play the World Cop and step in everywhere to save the day. I call these people crackpots.

[ShivaX]

I don't really think we should get involved (but I'd say that about most things), but I am curious what makes Iran so different than some other pet issues on the left. I mean, I'm always hearing about how the U.S. needs to step in and do something regarding some of the other human rights issues in the world (usually some African country or another), but on this there seems to be a sort abject silence.

Why is that, exactly - is it just because intervention didn't work out so well in the past?

It really depends on the situation and the country. Direct intervention in Iran would only result in the entire nation turning against us and the hard liners winning, as well as it being seen as an attack on Islam by many. Add in their nuclear program and the like and it gets muddier.

Given our history with Iran its a fairly unique situation. Its not like we overthrew the democratic government of say Sudan, so wanting us to do something about Darfur is a different scenario. Plus so far we're only talking about a nation stifling free speech and assembly, which is so common that attempting to do anything about it is basically impossible.

And ultimately, we don't really know who won the election and likely never will. Siding with the Reformers would only give the hardliners the green light they need to link them to the US. Obama is on record as far as human rights go, hes just not taking sides on the election.

[Ox]

Actually, if you go back to what Obama was saying before the Republicans started bitching, he wasn't even denouncing the violence. He was saying violence against peaceful protestors was "of concern" to him. The State Department initially refused to condemn (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23778.html) violence against peaceful protestors. There's a middle ground between strict neutrality and acting like the protestors are US puppets, especially given that they are being painted as US puppets anyway. In previous examples of popular uprising against oppressive regimes, especially in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, the tepid US response (again, tepid because we didn't want to tarnish protestors as our puppets) was later said to be seriously demoralizing to the protestors, both the specific ones dying in the streets and the potential ones who despaired of ever interesting the world in their plight.

It's admittedly hard to strike a balance between not tarnishing the image of the protestors and not appearing to be indifferent to the carnage. It's precisely because that balance is difficult to strike that politicians disagree about what to do. Too bad none of them realize you guys are so much smarter than the rest of us.

I mean, Christ. Nobody's suggesting sending the 101st Airborne. We're discussing exactly what language the President should use in a speech. Denouncing any particular nuance as "stupid" is kind of hanging a big sign on yourself that says, "I shouldn't be allowed to have Big Boy conversations."

[BlackPete]

I mean, Christ. Nobody's suggesting sending the 101st Airborne. We're discussing exactly what language the President should use in a speech. Denouncing any particular nuance as "stupid" is kind of hanging a big sign on yourself that says, "I shouldn't be allowed to have Big Boy conversations."

Obama knew perfectly well that if he even gave anything stronger than a hint of siding with the protestors, then the regime will immediately capture that video and play it over and over on State TV (tm) as proof that the Great Evil Satan is directly interfering with Iran's business.

Of course, his caution ultimately turned out to be meaningless when they still took a video of him and twisted his words for State TV (tm) anyway.

[Serapth]

we still don't have solid facts, so I praise Obama for showing restraint up front. Besides there have been plenty of shows of us consolidary, why should the presidents rhetoric be required. At this point Obama could only present a scapegoat for an embattled regime, a point most non politically pandering candidates ( like Kissinger ) and in fact, most Iranians seem to agree with. The fact Iran is directing most political poison toward Great Britian show that Obama's restraint has removed a popular line of rhetoric fro
the ayotollahs arsenal

Actually, if you go back to what Obama was saying before the Republicans started bitching, he wasn't even denouncing the violence. He was saying violence against peaceful protestors was "of concern" to him. The State Department initially refused to condemn (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23778.html) violence against peaceful protestors. There's a middle ground between strict neutrality and acting like the protestors are US puppets, especially given that they are being painted as US puppets anyway. In previous examples of popular uprising against oppressive regimes, especially in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, the tepid US response (again, tepid because we didn't want to tarnish protestors as our puppets) was later said to be seriously demoralizing to the protestors, both the specific ones dying in the streets and the potential ones who despaired of ever interesting the world in their plight.

It's admittedly hard to strike a balance between not tarnishing the image of the protestors and not appearing to be indifferent to the carnage. It's precisely because that balance is difficult to strike that politicians disagree about what to do. Too bad none of them realize you guys are so much smarter than the rest of us.

I mean, Christ. Nobody's suggesting sending the 101st Airborne. We're discussing exactly what language the President should use in a speech. Denouncing any particular nuance as "stupid" is kind of hanging a big sign on yourself that says, "I shouldn't be allowed to have Big Boy conversations."

[BlackPete]

we still don't have solid facts, so I praise Obama for showing restraint up front. Besides there have been plenty of shows of us consolidary, why should the presidents rhetoric be required. At this point Obama could only present a scapegoat for an embattled regime, a point most non politically pandering candidates ( like Kissinger ) and in fact, most Iranians seem to agree with. The fact Iran is directing most political poison toward Great Britian show that Obama's restraint has removed a popular line of rhetoric fro
the ayotollahs arsenal

I also found it interesting that the regime is including France in their net of blame. The UK I can understand... but France? Now that's just a desperate move.

[J Arcane]

I also found it interesting that the regime is including France in their net of blame. The UK I can understand... but France? Now that's just a desperate move.
Internal conflict with it's many Middle Eastern immigrants had made France a very popular target when it comes to the Middle East.

Sarkozy's pro-UK/pro-US/pro-military stance can't exactly have helped France's image in that part of the world either.

[Lance Uppercut]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html

A 19-year-old was shot in the head by Basij. His family was then asked to pay $3000 as a "bullet fee." At the end of it all, they waived the fee, provided that they do not bury the man inside the city.

That's fucked up.

[BlackPete]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html

A 19-year-old was shot in the head by Basij. His family was then asked to pay $3000 as a "bullet fee." At the end of it all, they waived the fee, provided that they do not bury the man inside the city.

That's fucked up.

And they wonder why people are revolting against them.

[Generation ABXY]

That is one expensive bullet, I'll give 'em that. Really, everything else goes without saying.

[CES]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html

A 19-year-old was shot in the head by Basij. His family was then asked to pay $3000 as a "bullet fee." At the end of it all, they waived the fee, provided that they do not bury the man inside the city.

That's fucked up.

China used to do the exact same thing.

[Slack3r78]

I don't really think we should get involved (but I'd say that about most things), but I am curious what makes Iran so different than some other pet issues on the left. I mean, I'm always hearing about how the U.S. needs to step in and do something regarding some of the other human rights issues in the world (usually some African country or another), but on this there seems to be a sort abject silence.

Why is that, exactly - is it just because intervention didn't work out so well in the past?
We're not talking intevention in general, we're talking about intervention specifically in Iran. Iranians haven't forgotten Operation Ajax, which involved the US backed overthrow of Mossadiq's democratically elected government and the imposition of the Shah.

The Ayatollah would love to be able to paint the current protests as the US once again attempting to subvert the will of the Iranian people.

[Narradisall]

The Western leaders could just, you know, stay the hell out of the situation.

It's tiring to get blamed for everything, and yet they will insist on having to go on TV and get involved in some form or another, thus giving the Iranian leaders the material they need to blame us.

[CES]

The Western leaders could just, you know, stay the hell out of the situation.

It's tiring to get blamed for everything, and yet they will insist on having to go on TV and get involved in some form or another, thus giving the Iranian leaders the material they need to blame us.

By going on TV and saying that shooting civilians is a bad thing? They'd get all kinds of shit for not stating it. We just can't win.

Look, Iran doesn't need an excuse to bitch about the US (thanks to the 1979 revolution) or the UK (because we fucked the Ottomans up and stole Persia, gave part of it back then did it again in WWII)

[Ox]

Obama knew perfectly well that if he even gave anything stronger than a hint of siding with the protestors, then the regime will immediately capture that video and play it over and over on State TV (tm) as proof that the Great Evil Satan is directly interfering with Iran's business.

Of course, his caution ultimately turned out to be meaningless when they still took a video of him and twisted his words for State TV (tm) anyway.
And do you think that supports your argument or mine?

[Generation ABXY]

Yeah, it does put us in an interesting position. As they've tried to spin the blame on us anyway (as has been said), I can see why it is tempting to say, "Screw it, let's at least give 'em both barrels then."

[National Kato]

CNN was all over the 'Neda (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.woman.twitter/index.html)' story this morning.

[Narradisall]

By going on TV and saying that shooting civilians is a bad thing? They'd get all kinds of shit for not stating it. We just can't win.

Look, Iran doesn't need an excuse to bitch about the US (thanks to the 1979 revolution) or the UK (because we fucked the Ottomans up and stole Persia, gave part of it back then did it again in WWII)

True.

I just thought it might be worth trying a tactic we haven't used before, since we've tried getting involved before and look how well thats worked for us so far.

It seems the Irianians are getting the picture well enough themselves that the leadership hasn't always got their best interests at heart, especially if you oppose them. Us getting involved gives them a scapegoat to blame it on and divert it from them.

If we didn't get involved, what would they do? It'd probably end in civil war or fighting, which lets face it is probably what our governments would be happy to have.

[BlackPete]

And do you think that supports your argument or mine?

What argument? Obama tried to avoid giving the hardliners ammo, but they still made up their own ammo. It's just what happened.

[BlackPete]

It seems the Irianians are getting the picture well enough themselves that the leadership hasn't always got their best interests at heart, especially if you oppose them. Us getting involved gives them a scapegoat to blame it on and divert it from them.

This needs to be repeated again. And again. And again. And again.

And then it needs to be hammered in yet again. Slowly. Millimeter by millimeter.

The protesters are already protesting. The regime already knows they're being assholes by shooting at the protesters. It won't mean one flying fuck what Obama/Brown/Netanyhu/Sarkozy/etc. all say either way except to give the hardliners more propaganda ammo to try to deflect blame away from themselves.

Or put another way: If the US has another election dispute, how would you feel if China were to send in troops to "help you out"? Yeah, that's exactly how Iranians would feel about any physical foreign intervention.

[National Kato]

Democracy Now (http://www.democracynow.org/2009/6/22/after_a_day_of_deadly_protests) had Iranian American independent filmmaker and journalist Kouross Esmaeli on to discuss the situation in Iran and he commented on Obama's statements as well as John McCain's:


JUAN GONZALEZ: That was President Obama on Sunday. Kouross Esmaeli, Iranian American journalist and filmmaker, your response to the criticism of President Obama from the right, in terms of his inaction on the issue of the election in Iran?

KOUROSS ESMAELI: What is interesting about the criticisms that are coming from the right is that it’s been coming primarily from Senator John McCain. The Iranians know Senator John McCain as the man who sang “Bomb, bomb Iran” during the elections of last year. The man holds no credibility as far as supporting Iranians or seeming like he’s got the best interests of the Iranians at heart. And that, for Iranians and for this issue, that discredits him altogether and discredits this whole attack on President Obama.

President Obama’s stand, I think, has been the most sensible, and it’s amazing that the President of the United States is taking such a sensible stand. And that—everyone I’ve talked to in Iran has said the same thing, that we do not need any symbol of Western, especially American, interference in Iran’s internal politics. And the fact that America does not have diplomatic relations with Iran really ties its hand, as far as how far he can go in really supporting Iran. So the only thing they can do is to just scream as loud as they can, which will be immediately used by the Iranian authorities.

[ShivaX]

Democracy Now (http://www.democracynow.org/2009/6/22/after_a_day_of_deadly_protests) had Iranian American independent filmmaker and journalist Kouross Esmaeli on to discuss the situation in Iran and he commented on Obama's statements as well as John McCain's:

Well they're already substituting the UK and France for the US in their bullshit, but noone seems to be buying it. Hell the UK and them are kicking out each others diplomats.

[Generation ABXY]

Or put another way: If the US has another election dispute, how would you feel if China were to send in troops to "help you out"? Yeah, that's exactly how Iranians would feel about any physical foreign intervention.

To be fair, our election disputes rarely seem to involve the closure of media and communication outlets or people getting shot in the throat.

[Ox]

What argument? Obama tried to avoid giving the hardliners ammo, but they still made up their own ammo. It's just what happened.
Thus demonstrating: there's no advantage in trying to avoid giving the hardliners ammo. Q.E.D.

[Slack3r78]

Well they're already substituting the UK and France for the US in their bullshit, but noone seems to be buying it. Hell the UK and them are kicking out each others diplomats.
Well, the US has no formal diplomatic ties to Iran, and thus no diplomats to kick out of the country.

Thus demonstrating: there's no advantage in trying to avoid giving the hardliners ammo. Q.E.D.
Well, when one of the central complaints of the protesters is about the right to self-determination, it seems unwise to announce public support of any particular position.

[EternalGamer]

Yes, there is an advantage to avoiding giving the opposition ammo. At least it presents the opportunity for a different reaction from the regime and it is doing your part to attempt to ensure diplomatic relations. You can't help how the other guy reacts, but arguing that you should take a hardline from the very beginning forgoes the possibility of anything other than a completely antagonistic relationship.

In this case, it clearly isn't going to work out. But that doesn't mean you should jump straight to the Axis of Evil speech without leaving the door open for other approaches.

[Ox]

Well, when one of the central complaints of the protesters is about the right to self-determination, it seems unwise to announce public support of any particular position.
I hardly think endorsing a particular candidate negates a people's ability to exercise self-determination: remember how the entire fucking world felt the urge to talk about how we were idiots for re-electing Bush? What that tyranny?

But hey, don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that Obama should claim to be pro-Mousavi. This is partly for fear of tainting, but mainly because I suspect Mousavi would be almost as much of a prick as Ahmadinejad. Neither choice is actually good for us, so there's no reason to weigh in. I do think a simple statement that "shooting peaceful protestors is not cool, man" is the absolute minimum any decent human being or government could offer at this time. It took several days to drag that out of the Administration. And while I understand the fear of tainting, I think that is definitely overcautious and counterproductive.

[EternalGamer]

Obama got it right today in his press conference. The entire debate about how "strong" his language was and how it compares to what other people want is a pretty small minded debate to get caught up in in the midsts of such tragedy. I'm pretty certain the people fighting to be heard in Iran have bigger concerns than the exact temperature of the tone the Democratic President in the U.S. took versus the tone desired by some Republican opposition.

Whether he waggled is finger a little or resorted to chest thumping bellicosity, neither is likely to prevent the shooting of the protestors. The only possible effect that latter could have would be to strengthen the regimes' resolve.

Regardless, waiting until you see how things play out and figuring what role you might be able to play (sanctions, global pressure from the U.N., offering asylum etc.) seems a lot more important than the tone of voice in your initial reaction. It's moving your eye off of what is important and focusing instead on partisan bickering that doesn't amount to much of anything.

[Serapth]

I do think a simple statement that "shooting peaceful protestors is not cool, man" is the absolute minimum any decent human being or government could offer at this time. It took several days to drag that out of the Administration. And while I understand the fear of tainting, I think that is definitely overcautious and counterproductive.

Yes, but at the same time, in those initial days the source of news of those shootings was fucking Twitter. I am rather glad he waited for, you know, actual sources instead of what could have been an internet meme.

[BlackPete]

Thus demonstrating: there's no advantage in trying to avoid giving the hardliners ammo. Q.E.D.

Hindsight is a pretty valuable teacher.

Honestly though... what purpose would it really serve to have Obama do any saber rattling/finger wagging/angry letter writing? All it would do is make US citizens feel better about themselves.

Ahmandinnerjacket isn't going to say, "Uh oh we pissed off Obama, we'd better rethink this whole thing guys..."

[Serapth]

Hindsight is a pretty valuable teacher.

Honestly though... what purpose would it really serve to have Obama do any saber rattling/finger wagging/angry letter writing? All it would do is make US citizens feel better about themselves.

Ahmandinnerjacket isn't going to say, "Uh oh we pissed off Obama, we'd better rethink this whole thing guys..."

I think Jon Stewart said it best.

"This isn't fucking about us!"

[Ox]

The entire debate about how "strong" his language was and how it compares to what other people want is a pretty small minded debate to get caught up in in the midsts of such tragedy.
Which is why I barged into the thread talking about how everyone who disagreed with my preferred style was "stupid" and a "warmonger." Oh, wait.

Regardless, waiting until you see how things play out and figuring what role you might be able to play (sanctions, global pressure from the U.N., offering asylum etc.) seems a lot more important than the tone of voice in your initial reaction. It's moving your eye off of what is important and focusing instead on partisan bickering that doesn't amount to much of anything.
I was afraid I had come across as sanctimonious earlier. I realize now I was being too hard on myself.

Yes, but at the same time, in those initial days the source of news of those shootings was fucking Twitter. I am rather glad he waited for, you know, actual sources instead of what could have been an internet meme.
You think he hesitated because he wasn't sure if there was actual violence? I think that would have been reasonable, but that's not what actually happened. One hopes our intelligence assets in Iran were at least good enough to report whether the protests were being suppressed. Moreover, he was still refusing the condemn the violence after it was already being broadcast on CNN.
On Saturday, the White House was merely “monitoring” the situation, press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement. On Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden said he had “doubts” about the election. And on Monday, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the U.S. is “deeply troubled” by events in Iran but stopped short of condemning them.


“I haven’t used that word, ‘condemn,’” he told the State Department press corps. “We need to see how things unfold.”...

Earlier in the briefing, though, Kelly gave clearer expression to the administration’s dilemma: “We have to look at our own national interest too —nonproliferation is a very important priority in this administration ,” he said.

Now, judging purely from the Administration's own statement, it is not particularly motivated by caution about the facts on the ground. If anything, it is not even motivated by fear of tainting the protestors. It is motivated by the fact that Ahmadinejad is probably going to remain in power, and pissing him off is not in our own best interests.

Far be it from me to say that's an inappropriate motivation. I can't even say I disagree with it. But I guess pointing out that other factors weigh in the opposite direction makes me a stupid partisan bickerer.

[BlackPete]

Now, judging purely from the Administration's own statement, it is not particularly motivated by caution about the facts on the ground. If anything, it is not even motivated by fear of tainting the protestors. It is motivated by the fact that Ahmadinejad is probably going to remain in power, and pissing him off is not in our own best interests.

Far be it from me to say that's an inappropriate motivation. I can't even say I disagree with it. But I guess pointing out that other factors weigh in the opposite direction makes me a stupid partisan bickerer.

Go ahead and bash Obama for being a weak-kneed fool if it makes you feel better. It doesn't mean a damn thing to the Iranians either way.

Actually, there IS one interesting thing Obama could do to truly fuck up the regimes mind: Send them a fake video of Obama supporting Ahmandinejad. Let them play it on the State TV. Then let them try to reconcile the fact the US is now apparently supporting the regime while they're also the Great Satan.

[Ox]

Jesus fucking Christ. When you bother to read my posts, let me know. Until then, please stop trolling.

[BlackPete]

I understand what you're saying. I guess I just don't care enough about what the administration said or didn't say, or why they did or didn't say what they did or should've said or shouldn't have said. It's just bullshit in the end.

[Ox]

You obviously care enough to call everyone who disagrees with the President "stupid" and to suggest that I am calling him a "weak-kneed fool." So clearly you care about something. If not the substance of the issue, perhaps you're looking for an opportunity to insult others?

[BlackPete]

You obviously care enough to call everyone who disagrees with the President "stupid" and to suggest that I am calling him a "weak-kneed fool." So clearly you care about something. If not the substance of the issue, perhaps you're looking for an opportunity to insult others?

When did I say anyone who disagreed with the president are stupid? Hell where have I said that I cared what Obama thought or said? I simply said that he was trying to be cautious -- which he was. Which turned out to be useless, which it was. Aside from that, I don't give a damn about what Obama thinks.

Iran had an election that turned out to be bogus, and now the people are protesting/rioting/shooting at each other and dying. I care more about that than what Obama said or didn't say.

[Ox]

When did I say anyone who disagreed with the president are stupid?
I love trolls with shitty memories.
I can't help but wonder if the GOP is simply telling Obama he should step up simply because it'd be the opposite of what he's currently doing, or if they're honestly and seriously THAT stupid and have no long-term thinking skills.

[BlackPete]

I love trolls with shitty memories.

And how exactly does that translate to "disagreeing with the president is stupid"?

[Ox]

You're right, you leave open the possibility that I and the GOP are merely reflexively contrarian.

[BlackPete]

You're right, you leave open the possibility that I and the GOP are merely reflexively contrarian.

And is it really unfair to wonder if a large part of the GOP is reflexively contrarian? They themselves have admitted that they're trying to shake the image of being "The Party of No." In either case, I agree that was an inflammatory post on my part and I apologize for that. I am just irritated by people who insists on rushing in and getting involved in things they have no business in being part of.

Being stupid is trying to get into Iran's business. That's an equal opportunity stupidity regardless of whether it's an idea coming from a republican, democrat, libertarian, green party, marijuana, etc. To be redundant: The US trying to meddle in Iranian affairs is a stupid idea, period.

For these people, long-term thinking is a lost art, it seems.

[Generation ABXY]

Whether he waggled is finger a little or resorted to chest thumping bellicosity, neither is likely to prevent the shooting of the protestors. The only possible effect that latter could have would be to strengthen the regimes' resolve.

Really, that's the only possible outcome you can imagine?

Yes, but at the same time, in those initial days the source of news of those shootings was fucking Twitter. I am rather glad he waited for, you know, actual sources instead of what could have been an internet meme.

Yes, and at that point there was still the chance it was an evil Republican conspiracy, if memory serves.

As an aside, though, I willing to bet the government has much better sources than Twitter. At least, I hope so...if our president finds out from Kim Jong Il's MySpace that North Korea launched a missle at Hawaii, I'm going to be pissed.