Little Big Planet or Fable 2

[DeathtollWRX]

So, I just found out that Little Big Planet and Fable 2 will both ship the same day.

So which game will sell better?

Little Big Planet which has the most hype of any PS3 gaming coming out this year

-or-

Fable 2 with it's day 1 co-op patch and a fanbase from Fable 1.

[DeathtollWRX]

I voted for LPB even though the Xbox has a greater userbase I have a feeling LPB is going to sell just like Spore has but on the PS3.

I have Fable 2 preordered.

[bean]

LBP has more overall hype, but the PS3 is still expensive and has only 2/3 of the Xbox 360 user base. Plus, the Xbox 360 has just dropped down to mainstream pricing with a $200 version that will have it selling out this Xmas season.

If you look at game sells records, even Sony's "killer app" games sell millions less than Microsoft's biggest draws too, so even though I think LBP will sell well (and might even be a part of a bundle), unless the PS3 drops it's price, I think Fable 2 will beat this for sure. The main Xbox 360 "killer app" Gears of War 2 will probably sell twice as many.

My predictions:

Little Big Planet - 2.5 - 3 million copies sold
Fable 2 - 3 million - 3.5 million copies sold
Gears of War 2 - 5.5 to 6.5 million copies sold, 8 million if the multiplayer is fantastic and the CoD 4 folks migrate to it.

These numbers are for this year. I don't think LBP will stop selling and I'm thinking it will be a standard pack-in eventually, so I think by the end of the console generation it will sell more than Fable 2.

[Xerxes]

Original and interesting rarely leads to anything in the gaming industry. Probably sell more like Boom Blox.

[BLeeP]

LittleBigPlanet may be my game of choice, but Fable II has a whole train full of hype heading in and out of public station at all times. I already hear people talking about it in the streets, and I think the fancy new commercials are only going to push that further. I'm sure Fable II will sell tons very quickly.

[DeathtollWRX]

Original and interesting rarely leads to anything in the gaming industry. Probably sell more like Boom Blox.

Well Spore is interesting and Original
The Sims was original and interesting
I also feel that Sim City was also interesting and original

Okay so those games are rare compared to the eleventy billion me too titles out there. ( was just arguing to argue )

What's a Boom Blox?

I'm thinking Gears of War 2 will outsell Gears 1 in the same time frame simply because It's coming out at the right time (Gears is still popular but people are ready for more.)

It might replace Halo 3 as my multiplayer game of choice.

[BLeeP]

What's a Boom Blox?

This is a Boom Blox:

http://wiimedia.ign.com/wii/image/article/866/866487/boom-blox-20080415012807295_640w.jpg

Wii Game.

[Iron Past]

Hard to say. I'm going with LittleBigPlanet. I don't have a PS3, so I don't keep up as well as I should, but I don't think Sony has anything bigger coming out this holiday, that appeals to such a wide userbase.

[NoName]

I'm going with LBP for over the life of the two games.

If you look at just week 1, it might be Fable 2.

[KingGorilla]

I'm going with LBP for over the life of the two games.

If you look at just week 1, it might be Fable 2.

That is what I was thinking. LBP has legs. I don't doubt Fable will sell well. But I am leery as to why it is being released in the same time as Fallout and Gears on the same platform. Little Big Planet has less competition.

[menage]

I don't really care. I will buy both.

2 games on 2 different systems, not really comparable. Fable 2 has more competition though, wish they released it right about now.

[roboninja]

I voted LBP for the simple reason that Sony needs it to sell more. They will market the fuck out of Sackboy.

[Crowe]

I'm going with Fable 2.

[Haemorrhage]

Our scientific poll (now at 11 a piece) proves that they will sell exactly the same amount.

[Virtual Machine]

I've got a feeling it's gonna be Fable 2. There's just a much larger built in fan base.

[itchyeyes]

LBP may have quite a bit of hype, but I don't think it will sell nearly as many copies as Fable 2. Fable 2 is an established franchise in a broadly appealing genre on a platform with about 50% more potential customers. LBP is a new IP with an unproven (to the masses) game mechanic on a console with fewer potential customers. I know people want to think that these things hinge on qualities like innovation and originality, but that's rarely the case.

[Karak]

I think LBP looks really cool. But right now it's just not as popular as I think people pretend it is. I could be wrong. But when talking to the few people I know who have PS3's. If they follow news and such they know about it and want it. If they don't or just have it mostly for Blu-Ray its not even on their map. Whether this is poor marketing or not enough marketing its still a problem. I think this will be a good indicator of who bought the PS3 for what reason actually.

[Xydarc]

LBP's gameplay and creation tools will outsell Fable II's "we got it right this time. really. no, really."

[itchyeyes]

I think LBP looks really cool. But right now it's just not as popular as I think people pretend it is. I could be wrong. But when talking to the few people I know who have PS3's. If they follow news and such they know about it and want it. If they don't or just have it mostly for Blu-Ray its not even on their map. Whether this is poor marketing or not enough marketing its still a problem. I think this will be a good indicator of who bought the PS3 for what reason actually.
This hits the nail on the head. I think most of the time, those of use "in the know" vastly over-estimate just how many people actually follow upcoming releases, particularly those that are new and innovative like LBP. While LBP may be all the buzz right now on gaming sites, I don't think I know a single person in real life who's ever so much as mentioned it to me.

[crazyD]

This hits the nail on the head. I think most of the time, those of use "in the know" vastly over-estimate just how many people actually follow upcoming releases, particularly those that are new and innovative like LBP. While LBP may be all the buzz right now on gaming sites, I don't think I know a single person in real life who's ever so much as mentioned it to me.

I dunno, LBP is getting mainstream media coverage. Beta codes were even given out on the USA Today website. And anecdotal evidence means absolutely nothing.

[itchyeyes]

And anecdotal evidence means absolutely nothing.
I know, I wasn't trying to suggest that my experience can be extrapolated to a larger population. I was just using it to illustrate my point that us forum-going gaming enthusiasts have a slightly skewed view of what's currently popular with the broader audience.

[Karak]

I dunno, LBP is getting mainstream media coverage. Beta codes were even given out on the USA Today website. And anecdotal evidence means absolutely nothing.

You are right of course. However, anecdotal does mean something despite our dislike of it. With my tentative excitement concerning it and hearing or seeing blank stares I didn't see much in the way of normal casual users. Also USA today is not read by a random PS3 owner I would assume(That's a guess just so you know).

I think thats the small problem. There is a splintering of the PS3 market due to it's duel use. Hardcore who knows everything and is a gamer or a forum user, Blu-ray owners who want it for Blu-ray, and then people who got it because of loyalty.

Sony needs to figure out a way to get everyone involved. And the problem is, the moment you start showing little people running around it gets compared to a goofy 2d game or a Mii(And yes it looks AMAZING). And even though it is a Mii or a random 2d game, a casual gamer would not investigate this.

So the hardcore player may not buy it if the core game isn't good.
But may buy it if they like creating content.
A casual gamer may not buy it because it doesn't look as next gen as Ratchet(because they don't use forums or investigate)
A Blu-ray owner doesn't get it because...well
That is a LOT of splintering. Obviously you can adjust this any way for any game but...

Basically I am worried Sony can not have it both ways.

[crazyD]

You are right of course. However, anecdotal does mean something despite our dislike of it. With my tentative excitement concerning it and hearing or seeing blank stares I didn't see much in the way of normal casual users. Also USA today is not read by a random PS3 owner I would assume(That's a guess just so you know).

All that anecdotal evidence means is that the people you spoke to do not know about it. While I don't have details, I am positive your sample size is way too small to mean anything at all.

Mainstream press is covering it, and it is all over the gaming news. What more are you asking for?

[Karak]

All that anecdotal evidence means is that the people you spoke to do not know about it. While I don't have details, I am positive your sample size is way too small to mean anything at all.

Mainstream press is covering it, and it is all over the gaming news. What more are you asking for?

I think your taking this as an attack. It is no such thing.

This is the kind of thing I am also hearing on forums across the board(I frequent 7). In addition my brother works at Gamestop and my friends all work at games stores. Again, this is just what I am seeing. And since its people I actually talk to and what they are seeing and hearing I just took that at the small face value it is. And they work at the tale end of the business and basically state. Many people don't know about it when they push it while others seem to know everything about it.
Also there is a tangible difference between a forum user and the random person on the street and an even larger difference with a person who reads USA today(Thats not really fair to you since it was a single example and I am sure you have collected many...I am just saying). This difference which we all talk about in these forums for hours on end and is mirrored in every forum about games ever. You can't have it both ways and say there is a difference oh but when it comes to Little Big Planet there isn't.

You basically have;
A kiddy looking game
that is amazingly awesome and detailed
Selling on a system that is the most expensive
with a large splintering of its users as Blu-ray watchers only
Another splintering that is just loyal who may or may not like that kind of game
And another splintering who just like games.

I am interested in how Sony fares. This is not an attack on you or USA Today or even an arguement. I am simply stating facts that everyone knows about the splintered group that own the PS3 and am very interested in how this will all play out.
I am sorry if it doesn't agree with you.

[Dukefrukem]

I plan on buying both actually.

[Karak]

I plan on buying both actually.

As do I.
Space Marine's here I come.

[SilentScreams]

Well, people hated on the original Fable, and LBP has all the hype, so I went for LBP.

[crazyD]

I am sorry if it doesn't agree with you.

You are sorry if what doesn't agree with me? A collection of anecdotal evidence based on stories from friends who work at game stores? I'm not really convinced what one will sell better, which is why I abstained from voting, but I think LBP will have a really good run.

[Dukefrukem]

Or how about it won best game at both E3 07 and 08.... enough to get hype pretty high wouldn't you say?

[Karak]

You are sorry if what doesn't agree with me? A collection of anecdotal evidence based on stories from friends who work at game stores? I'm not really convinced what one will sell better, which is why I abstained from voting, but I think LBP will have a really good run.
Ok it obviously doesnt. :) You win the internetz.

[Karak]

Or how about it won best game at both E3 07 and 08.... enough to get hype pretty high wouldn't you say?
I wouldn't say. But it appears some would.
On the other hand awards sadly do not mean sales :(

[bapenguin]

LBP simply has a broader appeal.

[itchyeyes]

LBP simply has a broader appeal.
While the tone of LBP is more family friendly and broadly appealing than Fable, I really think that the creation concepts are going to hold it back. People are intimidated by things they don't understand, and for a lot of people a game about making games sounds pretty complicated. Fable 2 by contrast is a known quantity. Not only are people pretty comfortable with action/RPG's as a genre, the original Fable has already introduced a lot of people to just what the game is about.

[Karak]

While the tone of LBP is more family friendly and broadly appealing than Fable, I really think that the creation concepts are going to hold it back. People are intimidated by things they don't understand, and for a lot of people a game about making games sounds pretty complicated.
Or they have no clue whatsoever that you can even create anything.

[itchyeyes]

Or they have no clue whatsoever that you can even creat anything.
Good point. Would that work for or against LBP sales? I'm not really sure. On the one hand people wouldn't be so intimidated by it, on the other hand though they're not seeing half of what Sony's trying to sell them.

[JayVe]

I have trouble explaining LBP to people. When I try to explain Fable, people 'get it'. Adventure? Marriage? Dog? House? Kid? Good? Evil? Yeah, people can relate and understand. When you start saying Sackboy, editor, physics, create... people get the 'deer in the headlights' look.

Even though I'm psyched for both, and LBP looks like a ton of creative fun, Mrs. Kamalot watches the videos and simply scratches her head. Show her a video of Fable (especially the dog) and she wants to play... now.

[Johan]

Is there a 50 Cent game released on the same day? That one will win...

[JayVe]

Is there a 50 Cent game released on the same day? That one will win...

Ugh. I weep for humanity sometimes.

[Widgetcraft]

No idea which will sell better, I'll be buying Fable 2. But damn... LBP is really tempting, I think I would buy a PS3 for that game alone. But I don't have an infinite stream of cash, and I'm wanting to buy a camera that would cost about as much as a PS3 + two games...

[Gorvi]

I have trouble explaining LBP to people. When I try to explain Fable, people 'get it'. Adventure? Marriage? Dog? House? Kid? Good? Evil? Yeah, people can relate and understand. When you start saying Sackboy, editor, physics, create... people get the 'deer in the headlights' look.

Even though I'm psyched for both, and LBP looks like a ton of creative fun, Mrs. Kamalot watches the videos and simply scratches her head. Show her a video of Fable (especially the dog) and she wants to play... now.
Are you actually serious? Who the hell would have trouble understanding what LBP is? It's a 2D platformer that, while including a complete game on the disc, offers a robust level creator that allows you to upload and share your own levels and play the levels of others. How is that hard to comprehend?

[Karak]

I have trouble explaining LBP to people. When I try to explain Fable, people 'get it'. Adventure? Marriage? Dog? House? Kid? Good? Evil? Yeah, people can relate and understand. When you start saying Sackboy, editor, physics, create... people get the 'deer in the headlights' look.


I have no trouble explaing LBP as long as I firmly stick to the game itself. Creation tools and such are alien to alot of people. Some of us forget that. But the fact is many people just don't get it yet.
I try to explain it as just saying you can make a level like lego's. It works, until you meet the ass who says. "I hate those lego games"
I actually had someone say that:(

[JayVe]

Are you actually serious? Who the hell would have trouble understanding what LBP is? It's a 2D platformer that, while including a complete game on the disc, offers a robust level creator that allows you to upload and share your own levels and play the levels of others. How is that hard to comprehend?

Maybe people don't have a lot of experience with 'games that make games'. As itchyeyes stated... "People are intimidated by things they don't understand, and for a lot of people a game about making games sounds pretty complicated. Fable 2 by contrast is a known quantity. Not only are people pretty comfortable with action/RPG's as a genre, the original Fable has already introduced a lot of people to just what the game is about."

This hits the nail right on the head. People buying games aren't typically the people who are interested in creating things. Typically, they are consumers who destroy things in games. You'd be amazed at the number of people who are completely intimidated by any type of creativity.

[Wraith]

If we're talking first week, first month, then who knows. But I think long-term, Fable II will probably sell more copies, if only because it's a more traditional game, with an established IP, and the 360 has a larger install base.

[Gorvi]

Maybe people don't have a lot of experience with 'games that make games'. As itchyeyes stated... "People are intimidated by things they don't understand, and for a lot of people a game about making games sounds pretty complicated. Fable 2 by contrast is a known quantity. Not only are people pretty comfortable with action/RPG's as a genre, the original Fable has already introduced a lot of people to just what the game is about."

This hits the nail right on the head. People buying games aren't typically the people who are interested in creating things. Typically, they are consumers who destroy things in games. You'd be amazed at the number of people who are completely intimidated by any type of creativity.
And therein lies what you're not understanding: while you can create your own levels in LBP in no way do you have to. There's a full 12-15 hour game on the disc from the very beginning (w/o searching for all the extras) and you're going to have a ton of user created levels to download if/when you need more. You get a full experience out of it without ever playing around with the level editor. If you want to, that's great, but you don't need to.

[Karak]

Maybe people don't have a lot of experience with 'games that make games'. As itchyeyes stated... "People are intimidated by things they don't understand, and for a lot of people a game about making games sounds pretty complicated. Fable 2 by contrast is a known quantity. Not only are people pretty comfortable with action/RPG's as a genre, the original Fable has already introduced a lot of people to just what the game is about."

This hits the nail right on the head. People buying games aren't typically the people who are interested in creating things. Typically, they are consumers who destroy things in games. You'd be amazed at the number of people who are completely intimidated by any type of creativity.

I think what people are not understanding is that almost NONE of the true talk about LBP has been about the original levels. Its "go create this, go make this, see I can make a fucking AWESOME scientific calculator"
People would be even more apt to be engaged if they REALLY started just digging into it now as a 2d scroller with something to offer. But it's either creativity engine or somewhat unknown 2d side scroller. And that is a tough sell.
Edit: And again many people argue from insider knowledge. Not realizing that joe down the street may not want a 2d scroller when its been SLAMMED into their head that those belong on Xbox Arcade or something else or are last gen. I mean we all know the difference but at least for the people I am talking to that's the issue.

[Norse]

And therein lies what you're not understanding: while you can create your own levels in LBP in no way do you have to. There's a full 12-15 hour game on the disc from the very beginning (w/o searching for all the extras) and you're going to have a ton of user created levels to download if/when you need more. You get a full experience out of it without ever playing around with the level editor. If you want to, that's great, but you don't need to.

I can see how someone could have problem understanding why LBP is anything special. As a platformer it isn't that special IMHO. The creating and sharing is what's special, and casual gamers might not 'get' it.

LBP is overhyped IMHO, but I'll get a few hours of fun out of it I guess.

[JayVe]

And therein lies what you're not understanding: while you can create your own levels in LBP in no way do you have to. There's a full 12-15 hour game on the disc from the very beginning (w/o searching for all the extras) and you're going to have a ton of user created levels to download if/when you need more. You get a full experience out of it without ever playing around with the level editor. If you want to, that's great, but you don't need to.

Are people going to buy LBP just for the game itself and not the editor? Again, I showed the Play video to the Mrs. last night, and she STILL can't get it. Maybe it is how the videos are presented. Show her a video of Fable, and she's sold. Of course, all anecdotal evidence.

Straight-up platformers haven't been huge sellers recently outside of a small titles like Mario Galaxy, have they? How difficult is it to convince people they need another cute platformer? No, LBP's real differentiator is the whole package. The charm lies in the freedom to play with the world. To sell it is a macrame platformer is like selling someone a music studio cause it comes with a library of CDs. :rolleyes:

[JayVe]

IEdit: And again many people argue from insider knowledge. Not realizing that joe down the street may not want a 2d scroller when its been SLAMMED into their head that those belong on Xbox Arcade or something else or are last gen. I mean we all know the difference but at least for the people I am talking to that's the issue.

Yup yup. You and I are in total agreement... but you type faster than I do. :D

[crazyD]

Forget the creation then, just explain that anyone in the world can make levels that you can play on.

[Karak]

Forget the creation then, just explain that anyone in the world can make levels that you can play on.

That's what I do. Break it down to the lowest common point and move from there. I don't mention 2D, I just say a game where you can make levels VERY VERY easily and they will look good.
I fear it does nothing, but in the end I also don't care. Those people who would get into it just to make a level with a sagging set of balls you bounce across vagina land don't warrent being in the game anyway.

[JayVe]

Forget the creation then, just explain that anyone in the world can make levels that you can play on.

Great idea. A 2D platformer where you can download unlimited levels created by other people online. :D instead of selling it as a creation studio, sell it as a bottemless cup of platforming fun.

[darkbase]

I want both games more than any other this year, maybe even more than any game in the last few years.

[Gorvi]

Are people going to buy LBP just for the game itself and not the editor? Again, I showed the Play video to the Mrs. last night, and she STILL can't get it. Maybe it is how the videos are presented. Show her a video of Fable, and she's sold. Of course, all anecdotal evidence.
Why wouldn't they buy it for just the game? It's a damn fun game by itself, if you can't tell by the impressions people have put up, both around the internet and here. I don't mean to insult your wife, but if she doesn't "get it", I think that might be a her problem, not the game.
Straight-up platformers haven't been huge sellers recently outside of a small titles like Mario Galaxy, have they? How difficult is it to convince people they need another cute platformer? No, LBP's real differentiator is the whole package. The charm lies in the freedom to play with the world. To sell it is a macrame platformer is like selling someone a music studio cause it comes with a library of CDs. :rolleyes:
Your right on that, but who's to say they can't sell again? Heck, to use your own logic in regards to Fable, what was the last big action RPG that was a major seller that wasn't called Zelda?

Again, there's nothing wrong with getting LBP as a straight up platformer with tons of DLC, it's a damn fun game even if you only take it as that.

[Yeti2005]

I could see Fable 2 initially selling more copies but I bet LBP has a longer "tail". I'm also willing to bet Sony will start bundling LBP with controllers and/or consoles so I don't know if that counts. In the end I don't really care because I'm getting both :)

[JayVe]

Your right on that, but who's to say they can't sell again? Heck, to use your own logic in regards to Fable, what was the last big action RPG that was a major seller that wasn't called Zelda?

Mass Effect
Kingdom Hearts (I and II)
Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance
Infinite Undiscovery
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Oblivion
Tales of Symphonia (& other Tales entries)
Monster Hunter
The World Ends With You
Star Ocean

Uh, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. :rolleyes:

[Gorvi]

Mass Effect
Kingdom Hearts (I and II)
Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance
Infinite Undiscovery
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Oblivion
Tales of Symphonia (& other Tales entries)
Monster Hunter

Uh, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. :rolleyes:
Bleh, with that point you're right, though I'd question the "major seller" status of a few of those.

[violent]

I was very excited for Fable 2 at some point, then I played the first. Not that this answers the original question just that the only logic I could put into said question is which one I'm looking forward to most. That's Little Big Planet. Also, considering all the bundles (I believe it's 6) that are planned with LBP, the extra incentive will push sales which negates purchases based purely on want. Eh, it doesn't matter. I just hope both turn out to be above average titles.

[fitbabits]

Fable II will sell more for the following reasons:

Brand recognition, both the Fable name and Peter Molyneaux.
Larger install base of Xbox 360s over PS3s.

[violent]

Fable II will sell more for the following reasons:

Brand recognition, both the Fable name and Peter Molyneaux.
Larger install base of Xbox 360s over PS3s.

I used to tout brand recognition as a major selling point but HD-DVD proved my otherwise on that.

[Gorvi]

Fable II will sell more for the following reasons:

Brand recognition, both the Fable name and Peter Molyneaux.
That there could be a positive or negative, depending on who you talk to. A lot of people were very disappointed with the first game.
Larger install base of Xbox 360s over PS3s.
That, though, is a very valid point, and the main reason I think it would happen.

[Yeti2005]

I wonder what game released this holiday will sell the most overall. Gears 2? Prince of Persia (multiplatform will help)?

[Gorvi]

I wonder what game released this holiday will sell the most overall. Gears 2? Prince of Persia (multiplatform will help)?
My guess would be the new Call of Duty. I doubt the masses will know or care that it's a different dev.

[Widgetcraft]

I was very excited for Fable 2 at some point, then I played the first. Not that this answers the original question just that the only logic I could put into said question is which one I'm looking forward to most. That's Little Big Planet. Also, considering all the bundles (I believe it's 6) that are planned with LBP, the extra incentive will push sales which negates purchases based purely on want. Eh, it doesn't matter. I just hope both turn out to be above average titles.

There are bundles? Tell me of these bundles.

[JayVe]

My guess would be the new Call of Duty. I doubt the masses will know or care that it's a different dev.

I think you are right on the money with this one. In the end, Fable and LBP will be outsold by Guitar Hero and Call of Duty. :(

[violent]

There are bundles? Tell me of these bundles.

Of what's been announced, 3 PS3 bundles and 3 Dualshock 3 bundles. Let me try and locate a link for you.

[JayVe]

Of what's been announced, 3 PS3 bundles and 3 Dualshock 3 bundles. Let me try and locate a link for you.

Waitwaitwait... a DualShock3 bundle? As in... Wii Play? Buy the game and get the controller for $10?

[violent]

Waitwaitwait... a DualShock3 bundle? As in... Wii Play? Buy the game and get the controller for $10?

I want to say it'll be $10 but I doubt it. I assume there will be a savings but not as great as the Wiimote. Again, let me locate a proper source.

Here ya go: http://kotaku.com/5060939/littlebigplanet-gets-dualshock-3-bundles-too

[JayVe]

I want to say it'll be $10 but I doubt it. I assume there will be a savings but not as great as the Wiimote. Again, let me locate a proper source.

Here ya go: http://kotaku.com/5060939/littlebigplanet-gets-dualshock-3-bundles-too

...oh shit

This
changes
everything
.

[crazyD]

I want to say it'll be $10 but I doubt it. I assume there will be a savings but not as great as the Wiimote. Again, let me locate a proper source.

Here ya go: http://kotaku.com/5060939/littlebigplanet-gets-dualshock-3-bundles-too

Damnit, and I just bought a second dual shock. Wonder when this will hit?

[Deadend]

I think Fable 2 will sell more units this year, but LBP will sell slow and steady and get word of mouth. As it's a game aimed at the Mass Market... but the Mass Market does not know about it.

Fable 1 (including the LC) sold fairly well and was a pretty fun hack-slash game.

Fable 2 may be the hack-slash game people want.

[Wraith]

Here ya go: http://kotaku.com/5060939/littlebigplanet-gets-dualshock-3-bundles-tooYou wouldn't believe how long Japanese gaming publication photographers took pictures of this box at Sony's booth. It was like hours. Don't ask why we timed it. You'll find out later.I guess that's another thing to consider... whether LBP will sell big in Japan. Fable II most certainly won't.

[Widgetcraft]

I want to say it'll be $10 but I doubt it. I assume there will be a savings but not as great as the Wiimote. Again, let me locate a proper source.

Here ya go: http://kotaku.com/5060939/littlebigplanet-gets-dualshock-3-bundles-too

I would certainly be interested in a LBP/PS3/DS3 bundle.

[violent]

I guess that's another thing to consider... whether LBP will sell big in Japan. Fable II most certainly won't.

That's kinda why I haven't actually voted. While I know it's all in fun, there are too many factors for me to be able to make an educated guess without sweating over graphs and diagrams. I'm obsessive like that.

[Variable Gear]

I voted for LBP, because I think a lot of people got burned by the original Fable.

I'm not sure if those people are willing to give Fable 2 a chance.

[DangerousDaze]

Both games are hyped to hell, but I get the feeling that LBP will deliver surprises whereas Fable will deliver disappointment.

[bean]

Let me add that I only think it will be a close race if LBP actually delivers, which is looking more and more likely based on the videos and the endorsement of Tycho from Penny Arcade. Fable 2, on the other hand, is pretty much a sure thing.

[violent]

Fable 2, on the other hand, is pretty much a sure thing.

How you figure?

EDIT: I actually know where you're coming from but I think the flak the first Fable got should be taken into account.

[DeathtollWRX]

I think people are right... Fable will sell more at the begining and maybe LBP will catch up... but will people buy PS3 for LPB? I really doubt that... especially since it's a totally new IP.. LPB2 will probably sell like crazy.

I have a feeling Gears 2 will be the number one selling game on X360 for this year. It has the wow factor of the first.

[Xerxes]

I guess that's another thing to consider... whether LBP will sell big in Japan. Fable II most certainly won't.

Who gives a fuck when it will do excellent in America and Europe. LBP just seems so niche. It seems like a game gamers will get. Not Joe Blow. If I explained both games to someone, Fable 2 would still probably be there choice.

[violent]

Who gives a fuck when it will do excellent in America and Europe. LBP just seems so niche. It seems like a game gamers will get. Not Joe Blow. If I explained both games to someone, Fable 2 would still probably be there choice.

Why worry about Europe when you don't care about Japan?

[Spectre-7]

The Sims was original and interesting

Well, not really all that original. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Computer_People) :)

[crazyD]

Who gives a fuck when it will do excellent in America and Europe. LBP just seems so niche. It seems like a game gamers will get. Not Joe Blow. If I explained both games to someone, Fable 2 would still probably be there choice.

Really? LBP sounds way more like something casuals will get behind to me. I can't imagine a sequel to the much derided Fable selling a system to anyone, but I can see Oprah playing LBP and convincing many to buy.

[DeathtollWRX]

Hrmm I'm a little surprised that Fable is losing this poll. I did vote for LBP though but I thought I was in the minority. I should have stated for the first six months on the poll. If Fable pulls ahead early I don't think LBP will catch up. Fable didn't seem to be so popular when it first came out but I remember when people started chatting about it everyone started to give it a chance.

Gotta love speculation!

[violent]

Fable didn't seem to be so popular when it first came out but I remember when people started chatting about it everyone started to give it a chance.

Thing is that this time around people do know about Fable and unfortunately that's not always a good thing. LBP is the new guy.

Personally, I voted for LBP. Simply because it is the new guy. I've played the beta and there is enormous potential there. It's because of the kind of game it is that I see it as a system seller and a consistent seller. Fable 2 is going to be Fable 2 a year from now. LBP should still be delivering content (ideally). There are way too many factors to make this an educated guess but if I had to toss something together, that'd be it.

[Deadend]

Fable was REALLLY popular with the semi casual audience.

It faded from the hardcore as fast as we saw how small the game was, but there are alot of people who loved it.

[Xerxes]

Really? LBP sounds way more like something casuals will get behind to me. I can't imagine a sequel to the much derided Fable selling a system to anyone, but I can see Oprah playing LBP and convincing many to buy.
Game isn't derided in my view. Also, Oprah doesn't give two shits about gaming last I checked. :rolleyes:

[Xerxes]

Why worry about Europe when you don't care about Japan?
It's 2 markets strongly instead of 3 markets mediocre like. You guys would probably swear up and down the next game made by the guy who made Ico is going to sell more than Fable. Some things just aren't going to happen. This isn't God of War 3. :o

[Squidbot]

I've pre ordered LBP for Mrs TheSquid as a birthday present (Alongside the PS3 I bought her), so I'm hoping she will return the favour and buy us Fable II, as it really is brilliant. Beats Fallout 3 in my book, although that is pretty ace too.

[violent]

It's 2 markets strongly instead of 3 markets mediocre like. You guys would probably swear up and down the next game made by the guy who made Ico is going to sell more than Fable. Some things just aren't going to happen. This isn't God of War 3. :o

Well considering that this thread is just for speculation, I think there should be a little consistency. We either discuss worldwide sales or a particular regions sales. Not regions that may support our decisions. Although I think Europe will be a big LBP supporter.

[Widgetcraft]

It's 2 markets strongly instead of 3 markets mediocre like. You guys would probably swear up and down the next game made by the guy who made Ico is going to sell more than Fable. Some things just aren't going to happen. This isn't God of War 3. :o

You may be undervaluing the marketing that Sony is putting behind Little Big Planet. I'm not saying that you are, and I think I voted Fable 2... but it could easily swing the other way. You also have to remember that the 360 is getting a lot of shit in a very short amount of time; I'm not trying to knock Sony, but they don't have a whole lot going on that is going to get people's attention like Microsoft's fall line-up. That's more money being split upon the games on the 360 platform, where-as Little Big Planet will get a larger portion of the PS3 customer base.

[Mr.Green]

Well since Sony has LBP/Controller bundles it will probably boost up sales significantly, and the hype machine behind it has been insane. On the other hand the 360 has a larger install base...

Tough one. I went with Fable 2 because that's the one I'm getting but I wouldn't bet on it.

After playing with the beta I can make you one prediction though. Regardless of how many copies LBP sells, 90% of those will be played about as much as Wii Fit. It's beautiful and stylish, but as a game it's extremely shallow and gets boring quick. Of course if you're interested in creating levels it's another story but I doubt that much people really are.

[Squidbot]

Well since Sony has LBP/Controller bundles

What? Is this a U.S. thing, as I'm going to be needing a second controller for LBP.

[bean]

Heretic Machine - I think LBP will do well, but not for those reasons. Everyone I know who owns a PS3 either also owns an Xbox 360 or they are "bros" who only want to play Guitar Hero, Call of Duty 4, or sports games. There are undoubtedly exceptions and it isn't a scientific poll, but my bet is that the trend holds true.

Plus, Fallout 3 and Saint's Row 2 ares coming to both the Xbox 360 and the PS3. The Xbox 360 gets more exclusives that are "killer apps", but there are a fair number of them that are multiplatform, so it isn't a sure thing for either game.

[violent]

What? Is this a U.S. thing, as I'm going to be needing a second controller for LBP.

I posted the link on the page before this.

[OldJadedGamer]

Sales only? Fable Two by a mile, just due to user base alone. Which one am I getting out of the two? LBP.

[Xerxes]

Wasn't Fable 1 like the third most sold game on Xbox behind the Halo games? See being that established is why I think it'll go just as far. I think those folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely.

[KingGorilla]

I think it was the third most sold Microsoft game. That can't be right either because a lot of MechAssault got sold as well.

I do not think it could have been top 3 when you compare it to third parties. Rainbow Six sold a lot of copies, as did Madden.

[violent]

Wasn't Fable 1 like the third most sold game on Xbox behind the Halo games? See being that established is why I think it'll go just as far. I think those folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely.

I know a lot of the hardcore that were disappointed by the first. Also, Molyneux's antics have been increasingly tiresome. As for hype? I actually got hyped for the first one after I bought the Pub Games which in turn got me ramped up for Fable 2. I bought the Original on XBLA and I played it twice. The game just doesn't do it for me. Fable 2 has dropped of the radar for me as a result.

Point is that while I agree that Fable 2 will sell a lot, I don't think it's going to be this blind, massive sales mogul that it could have once been. Hell, considering the way things have actually turned out, it would be a shame to see so many people once again fall for Peter's over-promises.

If--and that's a big if--Fable 2 turns out to be a marvel of a game then they deserve to be an insane seller. The way the cards currently lie though, I think people should be wary.

[KingGorilla]

Here is an interresting bit to consider. If LBP is offered as a download, would it in fact sell more, but no one would see it because it is off of the NPD radar?

What I see happening to Fable 2 is just what happened to Halo 2, I see a but load of copies getting sold, and then rotting on store shelves.

[violent]

Here is an interresting bit to consider. If LBP is offered as a download, would it in fact sell more, but no one would see it because it is off of the NPD radar?

What I see happening to Fable 2 is just what happened to Halo 2, I see a but load of copies getting sold, and then rotting on store shelves.

It's precisely why these types of threads never end well. We just don't have all the facts. It's a rehash of every single "PC Gaming is Dying" thread which completely neglects DD transactions.

[JayVe]

Well since Sony has LBP/Controller bundles it will probably boost up sales sign
I think the affordable, reasonably priced, controller bundle is game changing for sales of LBP... especially since LBP is a game people WANT, unlike Wii Play.
After playing with the [LBP] beta I can make you one prediction though. Regardless of how many copies LBP sells, 90% of those will be played about as much as Wii Fit. It's beautiful and stylish, but as a game it's extremely shallow and gets boring quick..
I was a bit afraid of this myself. The game has potential, but if the gaming industry has taught me anything it is that possible potential is rarely realized. I suppose it comes back to 'a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush'.

[JayVe]

I think those folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely.
Exactly right... which also may happen to Little Big Planet. If LBP does not meet the ever-increasing levels of hype, the title could face a serious backlash. We'll see. Personally, I can't wait for LBP and will probably trade in my SIXAXIS for a LBP controller bundle, provided the price is right.

[KingGorilla]

I think those folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely.

There is also the trend that sequels do not sell as well as the originals. And I have to say that what Fable 1 had going for it was that early September release. As we get closer and closer to the Holiday Rush, it will just get swallowed up.

If you were to look at it as an Xbox only owner. Where would Fable rank among Gears of War, Fallout, Left 4 Dead, Dead Space. That is not to mention Rock Band and Guitar Hero.

And then you look at games with just pure name pull: Tomb Raider is coming out in November, that is a big name in the main stream, Call of Duty is another one.

Peter Molyneux can jocky for the "non Gamer" who plays games. But are they more apt to pick up the titles I just mentioned, or Fable?

[JayVe]

There is also the trend that sequels do not sell as well as the originals.

Is that truly the case? I can think of a number of instances where it isn't. You may be right, but outside of a number of instances I'm not aware of any across-the-board trend.

If sequels USUALLY sell less, wouldn't game developers make more original IPs to try and capture the larger sales of original titles? Like I said, I haven't done an analysis of general trends (or by genre or by platform), but the industry creates a LOT of sequels. If what you say is true, why would they?

[KingGorilla]

Sells less is not the same as sells poorly. Franchises are what they all strive for. If you can get a bunch of dedicated suckers the way Mario or Dynsaty Warriors has, then everything is a known quantity. Marketing departments like easily predictable and stable products.

[OldJadedGamer]

I really doubt LBP will pass 200k in it's first month on NPD. There is just way too much competition this year for gaming dollars and I think LBP is too expensive for it's target audience. Think about it, you have to spend at a minimum $460 just to see the title screen.

Will it sell to existing PS3 users... yes. Will it bring in new users, that's to be seen.

[Xerxes]

Hell, considering the way things have actually turned out, it would be a shame to see so many people once again fall for Peter's over-promises.
That's the thing. He didn't promise shit he didn't show. This time he's acting like a total pussy. I feel bad for the guy. If he was an american he'd what of disregarded you and you wouldn't have cared either way. Remember when cliffy brushed off people win asked about fighting Brumacks is in the first game.

Exactly right... which also may happen to Little Big Planet. If LBP does not meet the ever-increasing levels of hype, the title could face a serious backlash. We'll see. Personally, I can't wait for LBP and will probably trade in my SIXAXIS for a LBP controller bundle, provided the price is right.
I think LBP might do gang busters. I don't want to knock it. It's just little guy taking on a titan only works well in the comic books.

There is also the trend that sequels do not sell as well as the originals. And I have to say that what Fable 1 had going for it was that early September release. As we get closer and closer to the Holiday Rush, it will just get swallowed up.
Not always true.

If you were to look at it as an Xbox only owner. Where would Fable rank among Gears of War, Fallout, Left 4 Dead, Dead Space. That is not to mention Rock Band and Guitar Hero.
Probably right behind Gears. Dead Space is multiplatform so all around it might do well. Fallout is more or less Oblivion with guns. Elder Scrolls carry about the same weight in name as Fallout. I say look for a similar selling pattern. Again being on multiplatform helps. L4D will be on steam so we may never no.

[Widgetcraft]

Wasn't Fable 1 like the third most sold game on Xbox behind the Halo games? See being that established is why I think it'll go just as far. I think those folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely.

I hate how a mediocre game can use "too much hype build-up" as a way to negate negative feedback. The game was simple, boring, and uninteresting. The aging system was basically tacked on, and from what I've heard from people who played it extensively, it was nothing but a hassle. Never mind the horrible level design; Pete likes hallways about as much as Bioware, judging by the original Fable.

Now, I'm looking forward to Fable 2 because they seemed to have corrected most of the problems with the first one, judging by gameplay videos, and I have no doubt that many of the people who played the original will be moving over to the new one, but I wouldn't hope for a ton of non-core gamers hopping on board just because of the name. A lot of them are going to be buying Fallout 3, and may not feel like spending money on both. The game should have legs though, as long as MS keeps reminding people that it's there, and keeps it on the shelves of major stores (like a Halo game would be).

[Gorvi]

After playing with the beta I can make you one prediction though. Regardless of how many copies LBP sells, 90% of those will be played about as much as Wii Fit. It's beautiful and stylish, but as a game it's extremely shallow and gets boring quick. Of course if you're interested in creating levels it's another story but I doubt that much people really are.
This just in: Mr. Green hates fun. ;)

[violent]

That's the thing. He didn't promise shit he didn't show. This time he's acting like a total pussy. I feel bad for the guy. If he was an american he'd what of disregarded you and you wouldn't have cared either way. Remember when cliffy brushed off people win asked about fighting Brumacks is in the first game.

You lost me there. All I'm saying is that Molyneux is known for overpromising and underdelivering. He is playing the pussy now by keeping his mouth shut but things like the last minute loss of co-op isn't helping his cause. Granted, he claims it'll be available day 1 but if I believed him blindly wouldn't I be setting myself up for a case of unlearned lesson? Molyneux has lost a lot of credibility in my book. That's not to say his game won't be any good just that it's not a given as it once would have been.

[udabenshen]

I think lbp is going to be a pretty big hit, and honestly it is much more unique to this holiday season than fable. I really think that fable 2 is going to end up being crushed under the weight of fallout 3 anyways, if my preorder list is any indication (i know its not.)

[Xerxes]

I think lbp is going to be a pretty big hit, and honestly it is much more unique to this holiday season than fable. I really think that fable 2 is going to end up being crushed under the weight of fallout 3 anyways, if my preorder list is any indication (i know its not.)
Joe Sixpack console is far more likely to be familiar with Fable than Fallout. That was PC gaming thing from a long time ago. Well it might do good with the "bros" crowd. What does a fallout preorder come with as opposed to Fable 2.

You lost me there. All I'm saying is that Molyneux is known for overpromising and underdelivering. He is playing the pussy now by keeping his mouth shut but things like the last minute loss of co-op isn't helping his cause. Granted, he claims it'll be available day 1 but if I believed him blindly wouldn't I be setting myself up for a case of unlearned lesson? Molyneux has lost a lot of credibility in my book. That's not to say his game won't be any good just that it's not a given as it once would have been.
Meh. I've never been burned like you by Molyneux I figure.

I hate how a mediocre game can use "too much hype build-up" as a way to negate negative feedback. The game was simple, boring, and uninteresting. The aging system was basically tacked on, and from what I've heard from people who played it extensively, it was nothing but a hassle. Never mind the horrible level design; Pete likes hallways about as much as Bioware, judging by the original Fable.
I don't agree with you negative opinions of Fable. Friends?

[Widgetcraft]

I don't agree with you negative opinions of Fable. Friends?

I don't care if you liked Fable or not, but don't try to pass off my criticisms as nothing more than the result of over-hyping. I was never excited for it to begin with; I'm not sure how anyone could have been, after Black & White.

[crazyD]

Joe Sixpack console is far more likely to be familiar with Fable than Fallout. That was PC gaming thing from a long time ago. Well it might do good with the "bros" crowd. What does a fallout preorder come with as opposed to Fable 2.

I got a bottle opener with my Fallout 3 pre-order.

[Xerxes]

I don't care if you liked Fable or not, but don't try to pass off my criticisms as nothing more than the result of over-hyping. I was never excited for it to begin with; I'm not sure how anyone could have been, after Black & White.

And I don't care if you didn't like it.

I think ALOT of folks whining about the first game only represent a small hardcore audience. People who followed the hype too closely. But doesn't apply to everyone in the world.
Sounds better? Added a little wiggle room for you to hate the game for reasons out side of most folks seem to be complain about.

The premise for Black and White didn't even sound inviting to me.

[Rogue_hunter]

If we're talking anecdotes, all of my non-gamer friends asked me if I saw Little Big Planet at PAX. Among these same people, Peter Molyneax means nothing.
Among hardcore gamers, his name is 50/50, so that's not guaranteed that Fable 2 will sell like people think it will. Hell, at PAX, they only had 2 demo units, and those were sort of in an awkward spot at the MS booth. Little Big Planet held up the walkway right in front of it because it was on a big screen.

Like bap said, LBP has more of a broad appeal, even discounting the creation stuff. People seem to see Sackboy and fall in love. Not to say that Fable 2 won't sell. It will just sell to the hardcore, which is what I think it should try to sell to.

[SilentScreams]

I'll always buy Peter Molyneux games simply because he's not afraid to try and break the mold and try something new. Even if it fails, at least he tried something new. I'll always support that. If nobody tried anything new, we'd all still be playing Space Invaders.

[JayVe]

I got a bottle opener with my Fallout 3 pre-order.

Are you serious? Where can I get one?

[pseudopseudo]

Here's how I break it down:

Even with the hype, Little Big Planet is an original IP.

Fable 2 has a built-in fanbase, in addition to anyone who'll be playing the series for the first time.

With that in mind, I think Fable 2 will sell better, even though I'll be buying LBP and not Fable 2.

[Rogue_hunter]

Are you serious? Where can I get one?

Best Buy pre-order. GameStop gives you a soundtrack cd (3 tracks, not a real soundtrack) and poster.

Bottle opener > fake soundtrack and poster

[Mr.Green]

This just in: Mr. Green hates fun. ;)

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h276/DianneOnly/tease.gif

[Xerxes]

Here's how I break it down:

Even with the hype, Little Big Planet is an original IP.

Fable 2 has a built-in fanbase, in addition to anyone who'll be playing the series for the first time.

With that in mind, I think Fable 2 will sell better, even though I'll be buying LBP and not Fable 2.

I'll go broke buying both.

[crazyD]

Best Buy pre-order. GameStop gives you a soundtrack cd (3 tracks, not a real soundtrack) and poster.

Bottle opener > fake soundtrack and poster

Not only that, but it's a Nuka Cola bottle opener! With a magnet!

[Sl1pstream]

I voted LBP for the simple reason that Sony needs it to sell more. They will market the fuck out of Sackboy.

After which half of their customer base will go "OMG KIDDY" and ignore what is probably the best game on the PS3. At least in Europe.

[Shieldmaiden]

I'm gonna go for Fable 2. I just don't think that the average PS3 owner is going to go for it. If it was released in a couple of years when the PS3 is down in price and EVERYONE has one, then it would be a big seller ("Aww, look at the cute little puppet/doll thing!") At the moment, the FIFA/Gran Turisimo/Final Fantasy crowd are not going to go for a 2D side scrolling platformer.

[pseudopseudo]

At the moment, the FIFA/Gran Turisimo/Final Fantasy crowd are not going to go for a 2D side scrolling platformer.

I get what you mean, but LBP isn't as 2D as everyone seems to think. Part of the game mechanic that keeps the platforming interesting is the ability to jump forward and backwards in the field of depth.

[Shieldmaiden]

I didn't actually know that, but the point still stands.

[pseudopseudo]

I didn't actually know that, but the point still stands.

I get you. Although pigeonholing PS3 owners into "the FIFA/Gran Turisimo (sic)/Final Fantasy crowd" is kind of off. Is that really what you think the majority of PS3 owners have their system for? :D

[Shieldmaiden]

From a UK perspective, yes. I worked in games retail for years and that is exactly what most PS3 owners have bought it for. That and Singstar, though I don't think it's cheap enough for most of that market to have ditched their PS2s just yet.

To me, LBP looks like the first game that makes a PS3 worth buying (as someone with a 360 and a decent PC,) but I know I'm certainly not in the majority over here.

[pseudopseudo]

From a UK perspective, yes. I worked in games retail for years and that is exactly what most PS3 owners have bought it for. That and Singstar, though I don't think it's cheap enough for most of that market to have ditched their PS2s just yet.

To me, LBP looks like the first game that makes a PS3 worth buying (as someone with a 360 and a decent PC,) but I know I'm certainly not in the majority over here.

Far enough. Most everyone I know bought the PS3 for either a.) Ratchet & Clank, b.) Uncharted or eventually c.) Metal Gear Solid 4.

Also... Singstar is garbage. :)

[Shieldmaiden]

That's the thing. I don't know anyone with a PS3. Virtually everyone I know is a cash-strapped gamer who can't afford multiple full-price consoles and already has a 360, or just stuck with the PC. My more casual gaming friends haven't migrated beyond a PS2.

[Xerxes]

I just wanted to say fuck Fallout 3. I'll just wait for Fallout: GotY version. Take that Bethesda. Being predictable will get you nothing. ^_^

[SilentScreams]

I just wanted to say fuck Fallout 3. I'll just wait for Fallout: GotY version. Take that Bethesda. Being predictable will get you nothing. ^_^

Dude, the Fallout thread is that-a-way. :D