Sandman
03-31-2009, 08:01 PM
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The number of travelers boarding U.S. airliners will plunge 7.8% in 2009, a drop matched only in the year following the 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, according to a U.S. government forecast out Tuesday.
The short-term forecast is downbeat for virtually every segment of the aviation business, the Federal Aviation Administration predicted. Major airlines are expected to bear the brunt of the decline, with a projected 8.8% drop that would return them to passenger levels last seen in 1995.
Regional airlines will see business drop 4.5%, taking them back to volumes they had four or five years ago, while air cargo is expected to slide 2.8%.
Travelers might initially benefit from low prices, industry insiders say. But those hoping to find plenty of vacant seats, easy flight availability and long-term bargains will be disappointed, they say. Airlines fighting to survive are cutting low-revenue flights, filling planes to capacity and eventually will increase rates.
This year's FAA forecast reflects the broader economic downturn. It's a marked departure from previous forecasts, which bullishly predicted that airline growth would stay steady even in the face of then-increasing fuel prices and economic uncertainty.
In 2008, the FAA predicted the number of airline passengers would surpass the 1 billion-per-year mark in 2016. Now that landmark won't be reached until 2021, five years later, the FAA said.
"I think business travel is down," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said. "I think leisure travel is down, and I think people are just deciding if they don't need to fly... if they can drive, that will be the alternative. But it's all as a result of a very lousy economy that all of us are facing."
I know alot of us aren't frequent fliers so this may affect us going into PAX. I've checked my flights recently and they should be safe, look like they are filling up nicely.
source (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/31/news/companies/Airlines/index.htm?postversion=2009033107)
The short-term forecast is downbeat for virtually every segment of the aviation business, the Federal Aviation Administration predicted. Major airlines are expected to bear the brunt of the decline, with a projected 8.8% drop that would return them to passenger levels last seen in 1995.
Regional airlines will see business drop 4.5%, taking them back to volumes they had four or five years ago, while air cargo is expected to slide 2.8%.
Travelers might initially benefit from low prices, industry insiders say. But those hoping to find plenty of vacant seats, easy flight availability and long-term bargains will be disappointed, they say. Airlines fighting to survive are cutting low-revenue flights, filling planes to capacity and eventually will increase rates.
This year's FAA forecast reflects the broader economic downturn. It's a marked departure from previous forecasts, which bullishly predicted that airline growth would stay steady even in the face of then-increasing fuel prices and economic uncertainty.
In 2008, the FAA predicted the number of airline passengers would surpass the 1 billion-per-year mark in 2016. Now that landmark won't be reached until 2021, five years later, the FAA said.
"I think business travel is down," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said. "I think leisure travel is down, and I think people are just deciding if they don't need to fly... if they can drive, that will be the alternative. But it's all as a result of a very lousy economy that all of us are facing."
I know alot of us aren't frequent fliers so this may affect us going into PAX. I've checked my flights recently and they should be safe, look like they are filling up nicely.
source (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/31/news/companies/Airlines/index.htm?postversion=2009033107)