Beginning of the End for Nintendo

[Dukefrukem]

The fad is over... no one wants a Wii anymore... Was a good run. (looking for my post last year that predicted this (and by end I don't mean the end of the company.. just the end of the run))

After three years of record earnings, the mighty house that Mario built is reporting a net loss of ¥2.01 billion ($25 million) in the fiscal first half ending 30 September versus a profit of ¥69.49 billion a year earlier. In addition to the adverse affects suffered under a strong yen, Nintendo's sales for the first half of its fiscal year were down 35 percent to ¥363.16 billion due to lower demand for its Wii console. According to the Wall Street Journal, this represents Nintendo's first net loss in the fiscal first half in the last seven years. The future outlook is pretty grim too with Nintendo forecasting an annual profit drop to the lowest level in six years as Wii console sales decline for the second year in a row

[Gorvi]

I wouldn't say the sky is falling, but yeah, sales are dropping off. This gives them even more reason to push the 3DS like crazy next year.

[civil]

Holy shit! Who would have predicted that sales of x object would decline after x amount of time?!

Surely we have the reincarnation of the Oracle of Delphi among us.

[Dukefrukem]

Holy shit! Who would have predicted that sales of x object would decline after x amount of time?!

Surely we have the reincarnation of the Oracle of Delphi among us.

Surely you're not saying that public corporations with shareholders plan for and are okay with revue falling and growth stopping?

[Zero]

Well shit, if that's the case, I predict that 360 and PS3 sales will lower this coming January from the previous month.

[Chris_D]

Nintendo is becoming increasing irrelevant for me so I don't really care how they're going. There's just so much else going on in the gaming space that the days of me sending any money their way is almost at an end.

[Philonious]

I wonder if this means anything for Kinect and Move? If people are getting tired of the whole motion control thing Microsoft and Sony could be a little late to the fad.

[hunterx280]

It's funny, I've got my Wii, I like my Wii, but I RARELY buy games for it. The last game I bought was New Super Mario Bros. Wii. I've been interested in a quite a few but the fact is, I rarely buy games at the $50 price point. Nintendo games rarely get more than one play through and I just don't feel like I can warrant spending that much money on something I only a play a few times.

I do still play Super Smash Bros. Brawl quite frequently though. That was worth every penny and more.

[destoo]

Beginning of the end for the Wii. Nintendo is definitely far from "the end".

[Darkmatter]

Not suprising considering everyone owns one now. 2 each in Japan.

Time for the HD Wii or the Wiii?

[TheKeck]

I'm honestly surprised at how long consoles continue to sell. I mean... I have my Wii. It's not like I'm ever going to buy another one.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Y'know, they can still drop the price to $100 if they feel like it.

But yeah, the main problem was the fact that they released virtually nothing for two years. Iwata even said this. This Christmas is actually pretty good, and I'll probably be picking up 3 or 4 titles from it in the long run.

edit:

Also, a single half a year down is not even slightly unusual for any company ever. They've lost momentum, but they're going to get it back come 3DS time.

[Urizen]

Surely you're not saying that public corporations with shareholders plan for and are okay with revue falling and growth stopping?

Yes, they are. Because it's inevitable. It's like two years ago with Starbucks, when they announced they wouldn't be able to maintain their predicted growth rate, and they were canceling expansion and rolling back on a couple hundred locations.

Are you fucking kidding me? Where else could Starbucks expand to? they are already on every street corner, and in every bookstore, supermarket and convenience store. Not to mention, they have a kiosk at every 100 yards in every aorport around the world. Of course it's growth of rate is going to slow at some point. That's why you've started to see and hear Starbucks ads on TV and the radio over the last couple years.

I'm surprised by the self-congratulatory tone of your posts here. I expect better. But if you want a pat on the back, then good job, Nostradamus.

[Gorvi]

Constant growth is near impossible, especially for things like the Wii and DS that sold so high for so long. The only real negative in that article is Nintendo actually posting a loss for the first time in 7 years. Of course, that begs the question, where the hell is their money going? Did the produce far more Wiis and DSs than they were selling? It sure as hell isn't going into game development and it's not like they're losing money on the Wii and DS. 3DS R&D I guess?

[TheFlyingOrc]

It sure as hell isn't going into game development and it's not like they're losing money on the Wii and DS. 3DS R&D I guess?

R&D + marketing, plus Nintendo is invested in lots of companies and could lose money if they do poorly. They can also get burned pretty easily by exchange rates.

But it's OK, Duke cheers on Sony, who fell from Wii-levels to "ooh boy I hope we reach second place!", while Wii sales going from "Astounding" to simply "good" means that it's the beginning of the end. At least I wear my biases on my sleeve.

[Vermillion]

Maybe they should have taken the Microsoft approach, in planned obsolecense through red ring. Then people can keep rebuying new versions of the console every other year just replace the broken ones? :)

[Zero]

Constant growth is near impossible, especially for things like the Wii and DS that sold so high for so long. The only real negative in that article is Nintendo actually posting a loss for the first time in 7 years. Of course, that begs the question, where the hell is their money going? Did the produce far more Wiis and DSs than they were selling? It sure as hell isn't going into game development and it's not like they're losing money on the Wii and DS. 3DS R&D I guess?

Actually that's a good point. Doesn't Nintendo typically post lower profits or losses in the period before a major hardware launch?

[Dukefrukem]

I wonder if this means anything for Kinect and Move? If people are getting tired of the whole motion control thing Microsoft and Sony could be a little late to the fad.

Not the case since the 360 and PS3 do so much more than the Wii.

[Troggles]

Not the case since the 360 and PS3 do so much more than the Wii.

How does the fact that the 360 and PS3 have other features mean that motion controlled gaming isn't just a fad?

[Dukefrukem]

Yes, they are. Because it's inevitable. It's like two years ago with Starbucks, when they announced they wouldn't be able to maintain their predicted growth rate, and they were canceling expansion and rolling back on a couple hundred locations.

Are you fucking kidding me? Where else could Starbucks expand to? they are already on every street corner, and in every bookstore, supermarket and convenience store. Not to mention, they have a kiosk at every 100 yards in every aorport around the world. Of course it's growth of rate is going to slow at some point. That's why you've started to see and hear Starbucks ads on TV and the radio over the last couple years.

I'm surprised by the self-congratulatory tone of your posts here. I expect better. But if you want a pat on the back, then good job, Nostradamus.

This is how businesses work, especially public ones. Investors & shareholders are NOT happy if a business is not growing. They want their return on investment. If a company announces they cannot "grow" anymore, that would send their stock price tumbling. It's up to the CEO to decide how to grow the company. There is never a point where a company says: "Well that's it, we can't grow anymore". This is basic accounting.

[Dukefrukem]

How does the fact that the 360 and PS3 have other features mean that motion controlled gaming isn't just a fad?

Because that was the platform that the entire Wii was based on. We're talking about Nintendo here. We're not talking about the addition of a feature for two other consoles. Sony and Microsoft will only see growth from here out because they are adding something that didn't exist in the first place.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Because that was the platform that the entire Wii was based on. We're talking about Nintendo here. We're not talking about the addition of a feature for two other consoles. Sony and Microsoft will only see growth from here out because they are adding something that didn't exist in the first place.

Yes. It is impossible for Nintendo to innovate. It literally cannot be done.

Haha your level of cognitive dissonance is astounding.

[burger]

Holy shit! Who would have predicted that sales of x object would decline after x amount of time?!

Surely we have the reincarnation of the Oracle of Delphi among us.

I was gonna type a response pointing out the sales and profit trends of Nintendo's competition and how this contrasts with Nintendo's forecasting, console life-cycle expectations, etc but then decided that some people's Reality Distortion Fields are simply impenetrable without first assembling a squad of Rebel Commandos and having them blow up the field generator on the nearby forest moon.

That just sounds like a lot of work at 9am. :p

[burger]

Yes. It is impossible for Nintendo to innovate. It literally cannot be done.

Haha your level of cognitive dissonance is astounding.

Correct...they can always duct tape a 3rd GameCube together, create yet another Mario based game and call it the Wii 2.0.

Innovation is their middle name. :cool:

[Ink Asylum]

Yes. It is impossible for Nintendo to innovate. It literally cannot be done.

Haha your level of cognitive dissonance is astounding.

They certainly aren't about to release an innovative new handheld console.

[Dukefrukem]

They certainly aren't about to release an innovative new handheld console.

And who knows, maybe they had to delay the release of the 3DS initially and expected it to come out in the fall of this year when they were initially forecasting their strategy... That would have certainly changed their Income Statement.

[burger]

They certainly aren't about to release an innovative new handheld console.

You're probably being sarcastic but given that EVERYTHING is going 3D now after Avatar I wouldn't say the 3DS is all that innovative. Nintendo simply needed a catchy gimmick to deflect attention from the MILLIONS of iPhone and Android owners.

[Gorvi]

They certainly aren't about to release an innovative new handheld console.
Is the 3DS really that innovative? Maybe I'm looking at it from the wrong angle, but isn't it using tech that was already used in some Japanese phones coupled with what essentially amounts to more powerful DS hardware with a wide-screen display? I'm not saying it won't be a good console, not in the least, but I think calling it innovative is a bit of a stretch.

EDIT: I mean, if we're going to call the 3DS innovative then we should be calling the PS3 and 3DTVs innovative as well. I wouldn't say that about either.

[Zero]

This is how businesses work, especially public ones. Investors & shareholders are NOT happy if a business is not growing. They want their return on investment. If a company announces they cannot "grow" anymore, that would send their stock price tumbling. It's up to the CEO to decide how to grow the company. There is never a point where a company says: "Well that's it, we can't grow anymore". This is basic accounting.

So I guess that 3DS release date and price announcement a couple of weeks was a major coincidence then? You do realize that Wii isn't the company, right? It's Nintendo. Nintendo, which, coincidentally, happens to produce moderately successful portables.

[Ink Asylum]

You're probably being sarcastic but given that EVERYTHING is going 3D now after Avatar I wouldn't say the 3DS is all that innovative. Nintendo simply needed a catchy gimmick to deflect attention from the MILLIONS of iPhone and Android owners.

It's 3D in a console without needing glasses. It's not a dramatic leap forward but it's a big innovation in gaming, especially handheld systems. The need for 3D glasses is one of the biggest factors holding back universal adoption of 3D tech.

[Zero]

Is the 3DS really that innovative? Maybe I'm looking at it from the wrong angle, but isn't it using tech that was already used in some Japanese phones coupled with what essentially amounts to more powerful DS hardware with a wide-screen display? I'm not saying it won't be a good console, not in the least, but I think calling it innovative is a bit of a stretch.

EDIT: I mean, if we're going to call the 3DS innovative then we should be calling the PS3 and 3DTVs innovative as well. I wouldn't say that about either.

It depends on whether you think innovation is black and white or has shades of gray. If it's the former then yes, the 3DS is an innovative handheld gaming device, 3DTV's are bringing new tech to television viewing, and the PS3 does uh... ding when there's stuff. Otherwise, they aren't very innovative so much as they're slapping older tech onto new items.

[muddi900]

You're probably being sarcastic but given that EVERYTHING is going 3D now after Avatar I wouldn't say the 3DS is all that innovative. Nintendo simply needed a catchy gimmick to deflect attention from the MILLIONS of iPhone and Android owners.

Because 3D in theaters is without glasses. :cool:


Nintendo survived the Gamecube, they'll survive this.

[Troggles]

Innovation isn't exactly Nintendo's shtick. They didn't create motion controlled gaming, they just exploited it very well. They didn't create 3D tech, but it certainly looks like they're going to exploit it quite well, too.

[Dukefrukem]

So I guess that 3DS release date and price announcement a couple of weeks was a major coincidence then? You do realize that Wii isn't the company, right? It's Nintendo. Nintendo, which, coincidentally, happens to produce moderately successful portables.

Anyone can go to Nintendo.com and see for themselves.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2010/101028e.pdf

At this time last year, they went from $1.36 Billion in Income to $600 Million. ($850 million to $24 million Net income) Do you think the 3DS is going to balance that out?? Who knows it may.. but what do you think?

These numbers are crazy.

[JayVe]

Is the Wii really that innovative? Maybe I'm looking at it from the wrong angle, but isn't it using tech that was already used in children's toys coupled with what essentially amounts to more powerful GameCube hardware with a IR pointer? I'm not saying it won't be a good console, not in the least, but I think calling it innovative is a bit of a stretch.

[Gorvi]

Is the Wii really that innovative? Maybe I'm looking at it from the wrong angle, but isn't it using tech that was already used in children's toys coupled with what essentially amounts to more powerful GameCube hardware with a IR pointer? I'm not saying it won't be a good console, not in the least, but I think calling it innovative is a bit of a stretch.
Wow, your passive aggressive attacks are getting better! Yeah.

The Wii was an innovation as it's not something we've seen in gaming in any real way. 3D, on the other hand, not only isn't new (remember Rad Racer?) but from what everyone has been saying ever since the PS3's 3D capabilities were announced, adds absolutely nothing to the gaming experience.

[Dukefrukem]

Is the Wii really that innovative?

I think so. But it was more of a business decision than innovation right? (lil bit of both) They pounced on a fad and rode the wave for four years. It took 4 years for the other two players to realize Nintendo was banking on 100% of the market... There's no way that Sony and Microsoft will cash in like Nintendo because the market is diluted now..., but it will definitely add another dimension of gaming that wasn't available before... esp with the addition of HD.

[JayVe]

Definitions of innovative
advanced: ahead of the times; "the advanced teaching methods"; "had advanced views on the subject"; "a forward-looking corporation"

producing something like nothing done or experienced or created before; "stylistically innovative works"; "innovative members of the artistic community"; "a mind so innovational, so original"

Innovation is a new way of doing something or "new stuff that is made useful". It may refer to incremental and emergent or radical and revolutionary changes in thinking, products, processes, or organizations.

Sounds like Nintendo and the 3DS are quite innovative according to the definitions (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&defl=en&q=define:innovative&sa=X&ei=f6bJTLCdOsGAlAfKsLXeAQ&ved=0CBYQkAE) returned by Google.

Just because the 3D tech existed, does not mean that is has been used in this fashion before. This new application, is innovative.

[Urizen]

Innovation isn't exactly Nintendo's shtick.

D-Pad. Shoulder buttons. Force feedback. The trigger button. Analog Stick. Wireless controllers. Motion control. Maybe Nintendo didn't invent these things directly like Graham Bell gave birth to the telephone, but the specific application Nintendo developed for each of these technologies, before their competitors, is innovative.

This is evidenced by the fact that competitors have incorporated all these features and made them standard. I don't know what else qualifies as 'innovative' except blazing a path within an industry only to see competitors scramble to copy them.

And historically, Nintendo's innovation in software is in a completely different league.

[Gorvi]

By that very broad definition a very large number of products could be called innovative. I'm not going to argue, though, it's a matter of opinion. If you want to call it innovative, good for you.

[Ink Asylum]

Innovation isn't exactly Nintendo's shtick. They didn't create motion controlled gaming, they just exploited it very well. They didn't create 3D tech, but it certainly looks like they're going to exploit it quite well, too.

What? Seriously? Nintendo has been one, if not the most, innovative companies in the history of video games. From hardware to software they've produced countless ideas and genres that are now foundations of the gaming industry and endlessly copied. They defined the modern video game controller with the NES, after all. Every generation of Nintendo hardware attempts something innovative and different. They're not all successful, but you cannot deny the risks they take.

Innovation does not always equal invention. Nintendo didn't invent motion control but they did innovate it into a full game system experience. They aren't inventing 3D but they are innovating the delivery into something that's cheaper, more interesting, and less of a hassle than current 3D offerings.

To call that exploitation is casting a huge negative light on what Nintendo does, especially in regards to motion control. Before the Wii released no one believed that it would be a success. They weren't copying something that was already popular. They incorporated motion control, not because it was a sure thing they could exploit, but because they believed modern controllers were too intimidating to non-gamers. They wanted to return to something more like the NES gamepad, which anyone could pick up and use to intuitively control on screen action. They approached the Wii's development by doing something very different than they or the other big gaming companies had attempted for a long time. I don't see how that can't be called innovative.

[Dukefrukem]

It's definitely innovative. Innovators Dilemma proves this. The Wii was a disruptive technology that serves a niche audience and grew into mainstream market. During the niche market, it gathers 100% of the market revenue until it's competitors release products of their own. Once that happens, the original company needs to find a way to balance out the under-cutters with something new, otherwise the company will roll over. The 3DS and HD Wii seem to be Nintendo's answer.

[CES]

Anyone can go to Nintendo.com and see for themselves.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2010/101028e.pdf

At this time last year, they went from $1.36 Billion in Income to $600 Million. ($850 million to $24 million Net income) Do you think the 3DS is going to balance that out?? Who knows it may.. but what do you think?

These numbers are crazy.

I suspect that Nintendo knew about this long before now given their newly rediscovered emphasis on IP that hasn't been used in half a decade and a new portable hardware iteration that isn't just tweaking the existing model.

[Ink Asylum]

I think so. But it was more of a business decision than innovation right? (lil bit of both) They pounced on a fad and rode the wave for four years. It took 4 years for the other two players to realize Nintendo was banking on 100% of the market... There's no way that Sony and Microsoft will cash in like Nintendo because the market is diluted now..., but it will definitely add another dimension of gaming that wasn't available before... esp with the addition of HD.

How do you pounce on a fad that wasn't a fad before you made it one?

Nintendo started the motion gaming fad. You cannot pounce on yourself. It's the Kinect and Move that are now trying to pounce on and ride Nintendo's wave.

To call it a business decisions overlooks the fact that it was a very risky one, as I just explained. The Wii was mocked and derided upon being revealed at E3 and nearly everyone in the gaming industry was convinced it would be a huge flop. They broke away from what had become the traditional console structure and took a huge risk. If the Wii had flopped after the Gamecube it's possible Nintendo would be turning into another Sega.

[Narradisall]

Duke,

I think at this point unless they diversify, then yes, Nintendo can't 'grow' a ton more where they are. The end of the Wii era was predictable. Nintendo can't extend their gen like the PS3 and 360 are, so they have to either move to a next gen or watch sales decline.

Personally, I never bought a Wii, never want one and was baffled by how many people I know bought one and like 3 games, then never touched them again after a few months.

I will be interested to see where Nintendo go next, they do have to move on now though.

Innovation or Diversity are their best options.

[TheFlyingOrc]

To call it a business decisions overlooks the fact that it was a very risky one, as I just explained. The Wii was mocked and derided upon being revealed at E3 and nearly everyone in the gaming industry was convinced it would be a huge flop. They broke away from what had become the traditional console structure and took a huge risk. If the Wii had flopped after the Gamecube it's possible Nintendo would be turning into another Sega.
Nintendo literally takes the most risks out of any game company I can think of. Sometimes they don't pay off, but seriously - are we going to pretend that if someone does something, and everyone else copies it, that they weren't innovative?

Also, the 3DS has a lot more features other than just the 3D. It's a unique package.

And, though you may not CARE about the genre, and some idiot will spin these into "THESE ALREADY EXISTED" even though not really - Wii Sports, Brain Age, Wii Fit, and Nintendogs are all more or less new genres, or at least radical new takes on existing genres. But, of course, casual genres don't count (even though every genre starts as a casual genre).

[JayVe]

D-Pad. Shoulder buttons. Force feedback. The trigger button. Analog Stick. Wireless controllers. Motion control.

Ya see, all these things existed outside gaming. One could argue that it was inevitable that they would be introduced into gaming at some point with or without Nintendo.

Would they? Who knows! Nintendo has been too busy innovating.

[Gorvi]

Nintendo literally takes the most risks out of any game company I can think of. Sometimes they don't pay off, but seriously - are we going to pretend that if someone does something, and everyone else copies it, that they weren't innovative?

Also, the 3DS has a lot more features other than just the 3D. It's a unique package.

And, though you may not CARE about the genre, and some idiot will spin these into "THESE ALREADY EXISTED" even though not really - Wii Sports, Brain Age, Wii Fit, and Nintendogs are all more or less new genres, or at least radical new takes on existing genres. But, of course, casual genres don't count (even though every genre starts as a casual genre).
Nintendo is an incredibly innovative company historically. Urizen pointed out a number of their innovations over the past 25 years, and he's right. I personally just don't see the 3DS as one of them. It's a matter of perspective, but I guess I see the 3DS as more of a natural progression as opposed to innovation. I'm not trying to be caustic, it's just an opinion, of others disagree then great.

And I think you're right about most of those games aside from Nintendogs. It's a virtual pet game, those have been around for a long, long time. The interface was new considering it utilized the touch screen on the DS, but that's it. With Nintendogs they did what they do so well with many games: take existing ideas and implement them in ways that are incredibly user friendly and appealing to the masses.

[OldJadedGamer]

Meh, Nintendo has never posted a yearly loss ever.... ever. The company has always made a profit year in and year out. This is just a quarter as they ramp up for a new system launch.

The fiscal year ends March 31st for them and by then, the 3DS will have launched worldwide giving them more than enough money to post a profit for the 2010 year and they can save a Wii HD or Wii 2 for 2011 once they see how Move and Kinect sell.

This article (and thread) means nothing in the larger picture.

[TheFlyingOrc]

And I think you're right about most of those games aside from Nintendogs. It's a virtual pet game, those have been around for a long, long time. The interface was new considering it utilized the touch screen on the DS, but that's it. With Nintendogs they did what they do so well with many games: take existing ideas and implement them in ways that are incredibly user friendly and appealing to the masses.
The way it was done seemed pretty radical and different, but I'll give you a pass there. :)

I do wish Nintendo were creating more "Pikmin" new genres and less "Wii Fit" new genres.

[JayVe]

And I think you're right about most of those games aside from Nintendogs. It's a virtual pet game, those have been around for a long, long time. The interface was new considering it utilized the touch screen on the DS, but that's it.
And yanno, the microphone. You can teach your dog his own name. Do lots of games already have you teaching them custom verbal commands with a system that works?

Nintendogs is a brilliant innovation.

[Gorvi]

The way it was done seemed pretty radical and different, but I'll give you a pass there. :)

I do wish Nintendo were creating more "Pikmin" new genres and less "Wii Fit" new genres.
As do I. They still make great games and obviously have great designers, but damn, it feels like they're wasted on some of what they put out. It makes financial sense, though.
And yanno, the microphone. You can teach your dog his own name. Do lots of games already have you teaching them custom verbal commands with a system that works?

Nintendogs is a brilliant innovation.
Seaman? :p

[OldJadedGamer]

And yanno, the microphone. You can teach your dog his own name. Do lots of games already have you teaching them custom verbal commands with a system that works?

Nintendogs is a brilliant innovation.

As Gorvi pointed out, Seaman did this. Nintendogs didn't do anything new but it was the first game that I had to pick up a piece of shit in.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Seaman? :p
Well, you certainly can't argue that THAT game wasn't innovative.

[Gorvi]

Well, you certainly can't argue that THAT game wasn't innovative.
Are you kidding? That game was just riding the wave of voice controlled virtual fish/frog-man games that were so popular in the late 90s. It was nuts.





Seaman was fucking awesome, the fact that Seaman 2 never made it over here is a crime against humanity.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Are you kidding? That game was just riding the wave of voice controlled virtual fish/frog-man games that were so popular in the late 90s. It was nuts.

Yeah, it really sucked when they got the feature film and Saturday morning cartoon show going "Seaman: Back in Action!" Soon all the kids had Seaman backpacks and T-shirts, were playing the Seaman Trading Card Game, and they opened that big "Seaman Superstore" in NYC. I was like "kids, it's just a virtual pet simulator for a talking fishman!" But they just ignored me and kept talking about their favorite.

[Gorvi]

The worst part of the Seaman craze was the Seaman TV show with all of those cameos from The Backstreet Boys, Shaq, and the cast of Friends. Seriously, that was going too far. And the annoying cracked up baby Seaman they added in the 3rd season? Don't get me started.

[Hawkzombie]

I have sex with women.

Has nothing to do with the argument, but I felt it appropriate to mention.

[Zero]

I went and saw Seaman: The Tour. He was real outta shape by that point though and the cocaine addiction wasn't helping so it was pretty sad.

[Generation ABXY]

I have sex with women.

Has nothing to do with the argument, but I felt it appropriate to mention.

It does remind me of an old Seaman ad, though...

[TheFlyingOrc]

I went and saw Seaman: The Tour. He was real outta shape by that point though and the cocaine addiction wasn't helping so it was pretty sad.

Well, that's barely his fault. Cocaine is the fuel that DRIVES the Folk/Rap/Polka music industry.

Me? I just think that Seaman flavored Doritos were about the worst idea ever, but my school cafeteria bought them anyway. UGH! Just because they have the INCREDIBLY POPULAR game character on them doesn't mean they taste good. But stupid kids bought them anyway. Sheeple, the lot of them.

[burger]

What? Seriously? Nintendo has been one, if not the most, innovative companies in the history of video games.

I guess...my first thought is of the Sony CD add on that they passed on.

To me it's always been Nintendo's competition that innovates....Nintendo simply has great IP. Modern consoles owe more to the PC than anything Nintendo ever did.

[Widgetcraft]

The future outlook is pretty grim

Yeah, having an upcoming handheld that is going to slap the Wii's shit in terms of sales is a pretty grim prospect. Unless it gets fucked by it's high price, of course.

[Ink Asylum]

I guess...my first thought is of the Sony CD add on that they passed on.

To me it's always been Nintendo's competition that innovates....Nintendo simply has great IP. Modern consoles owe more to the PC than anything Nintendo ever did.

They don't always make the best calls, but they have had far more success than failure. Even though the missed the boat on which storage medium would be superior in the N64/PSX era, they still innovated in that generation with the analog control stick and rumble features of their controller, let alone defining the 3D platformer with Super Mario 64.

I simply don't see how you can stack the innovations of Nintendo against those of the competition and not see how much more Nintendo has done for gaming. The only place where they lag behind in innovation is in online play. I will gladly recognize that Microsoft and Sony have done more in those fields. But when it comes to the foundation of video games and how we interact with them Nintendo has continually pushed the industry in new directions.

[TheFlyingOrc]

To me it's always been Nintendo's competition that innovates....Nintendo simply has great IP. Modern consoles owe more to the PC than anything Nintendo ever did.
Well, this would be true if they hadn't been the first company to include the d-pad, analog sticks, shoulder buttons, rumble, touchscreens, bluetooth wireless controllers, or motion controls in their console. Hell, the DS "when it closes every game pauses" is brilliant.

The level of denial it takes to pretend Nintendo doesn't innovate is astounding. Yes, they foolishly held onto the cart format into the N64 era (the main reason they haven't been dominant 100% of the time since 1985).

They also hate the internet for some weird reason.

[Dukefrukem]

Yeah, having an upcoming handheld that is going to slap the Wii's shit in terms of sales is a pretty grim prospect. Unless it gets fucked by it's high price, of course.

That's from Nintendo's forecast. So... Nintendo is saying they're expecting a profit drop.....

[Gorvi]

Well, this would be true if they hadn't been the first company to include the d-pad, analog sticks, shoulder buttons, rumble, touchscreens, bluetooth wireless controllers, or motion controls in their console. Hell, the DS "when it closes every game pauses" is brilliant.

The level of denial it takes to pretend Nintendo doesn't innovate is astounding. Yes, they foolishly held onto the cart format into the N64 era (the main reason they haven't been dominant 100% of the time since 1985).

They also hate the internet for some weird reason.
Actually the PS3 and Wii came out at about the same time and both have Bluetooth controllers (and motion, but I'm not even remotely going to pretend that they're the same thing), but otherwise you're right. Oh, and the PSP did the DS's sleep mode in a very similar way (flick the switch instead of close the lid as the PSP has no lid) and the PSP's is arguably better as it works regardless of what's running, where as the DS's doesn't work for GBA games.

Otherwise, yeah, Nintendo has hardly been a follower in most ways. For better or worse they tend to blaze their own path with hardware. Sometimes they're successful, sometimes they're not, but they rarely play the role of the follower.

[Narradisall]

I guess Nintendo will just have to wade through a slightly smaller pile of money, past money mountain, through the diamond waterfall and over the field of gold to reach their atms full of a little less money than last year.

Fuck, their DOOMED.

PS: I do think they need to be doing something with their console market within a year though.

[Ink Asylum]

Actually the PS3 and Wii came out at about the same time and both have Bluetooth controllers (and motion, but I'm not even remotely going to pretend that they're the same thing), but otherwise you're right.

Nintendo released the Wavebird wireless controller for the Gamecube.

Glancing at the Wavebird entry on Wikipedia, there's this paragraph:

Nintendo had been attempting to create a reliable wireless controller since the early Famicom era. Its first attempt was for the AVS (Advanced Video System), the precursor to the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) which included two wireless controllers but was never released. The next attempt was an infrared (IR) adapter called the NES Satellite, for the NES. Released in 1989, it used the aforementioned IR to extend the length of up to four wired controllers, which would plug themselves into the base of the unit. The base could then be positioned anywhere within a certain range of the NES without the need for a cable. However, the extension base still needed a direct line of sight with the NES console, a problem also present on third-party wireless IR controllers. Infrared has significant limitations; one being that it is line of sight only; there had to be a clear space between the IR port and the controller. Radio Frequency controllers were not possible in the late 1980s as the early digital RF links were bulky and used too much power to be useful in battery-powered devices.

Nintendo was attempting to make wireless controllers since the NES days. They've always been attempting to innovate video game hardware, and they've suceeded more often than any other gaming company. Flip over an NES and pull off a cover and there's an unused port on the bottom that they were planning to use for some kind of online networking that was never completed.

[Gorvi]

Nintendo released the Wavebird wireless controller for the Gamecube.
That wasn't Bluetooth, it was RF.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Actually the PS3 and Wii came out at about the same time and both have Bluetooth controllers (and motion, but I'm not even remotely going to pretend that they're the same thing), but otherwise you're right. Oh, and the PSP did the DS's sleep mode in a very similar way (flick the switch instead of close the lid as the PSP has no lid) and the PSP's is arguably better as it works regardless of what's running, where as the DS's doesn't work for GBA games.

Whoops. I was talking about the Wavebird, which I forgot was over RF, not Bluetooth. They were the first company to produce wireless, non line-of-sight controllers to a significant extent. Also, I expect that the DS's limit on that functionality is actually a limitation of the GBA, not the DS.

Nintendo has made 2 major mistakes since becoming a primarily videogaming company:

1.Betrayal of Sony/Embracing Phillips and the continuing use of cartridges from 1996-2001. This is actually a bunch of smaller mistakes, but they're interrelated.

2.Lack of non-super-casual games through 2007-2009 - It really appears they are trying to correct this, but seriously - the Wii has no Star Fox, no Pikmin, no unique Zelda, and no new IPs that aren't really novelties. This is a huge part of the reason for their downturn (they kept up no momentum and it's become almost impossible to reclaim it if the hardcore aren't watching their release list at all)

And a 3rd, debatable one:

LOL Internet - Nintendo hates the internet and it must be destroyed. They have saved about a bajillion dollars by not sinking money into infrastructure and R&D here, so maybe not a disaster financially, but it sucks.

The common thread here? It isn't Nintendo being behind the curve on innovation - they're simply steadfast in their belief that these things, at the time, weren't in their best financial interest. I think they were wrong every time, but it wasn't because they lacked creativity.

[Ink Asylum]

That wasn't Bluetooth, it was RF.

Well, that's a mistake on Orc's part, but the type of tech doesn't matter as much as the user experience of a wireless controller.

[Dukefrukem]

I guess Nintendo will just have to wade through a slightly smaller pile of money, past money mountain, through the diamond waterfall and over the field of gold to reach their atms full of a little less money than last year.

Fuck, their DOOMED.

PS: I do think they need to be doing something with their console market within a year though.

Again, this is not how corporations think or work. You cannot sit on your pile of money while your operating expenses remain constant. Your assets decrease and your retained earnings go bye bye. Less R.E. = less dividends = people very very upset.. as in the people investing to keep the company working and MAKING money. The market, investors and shareholder do not approve of this and it will hurt them.

[Ink Asylum]

LOL Internet - Nintendo hates the internet and it must be destroyed. They have saved about a bajillion dollars by not sinking money into infrastructure and R&D here, so maybe not a disaster financially, but it sucks.


The online handicap is largely a cultural one. The use of the internet and online gaming in Japan is very different than it is in America, where PC gaming had fostered online games for a very long time. It's why Microsoft was the first company to institute an online console gaming service that worked really well.

Nintendo needs to hire some Western online gaming talent to start making real decisions for how online services should work for the Wii's successor.

[burger]

They don't always make the best calls, but they have had far more success than failure. Even though the missed the boat on which storage medium would be superior in the N64/PSX era, they still innovated in that generation with the analog control stick and rumble features of their controller, let alone defining the 3D platformer with Super Mario 64.

I simply don't see how you can stack the innovations of Nintendo against those of the competition and not see how much more Nintendo has done for gaming. The only place where they lag behind in innovation is in online play. I will gladly recognize that Microsoft and Sony have done more in those fields. But when it comes to the foundation of video games and how we interact with them Nintendo has continually pushed the industry in new directions.

Modern consoles have optical drives, hard drives, GPU's, ethernet, etc. Those all came from the PC or consoles like the PSX, 3D0, XBox, etc.

I think Nintendo has always been the company that sticks with the proven formula. They use the same IP over and over and other than the Wii their hardware has never been as cutting edge as their competition.

The level of denial it takes to pretend Nintendo doesn't innovate is astounding. .

Not as much as their competition...I'm not giving out prizes for 2nd or 3rd place. As fas as I'm concerned Nintendo lost with the SNES, N64 and GameCube. The Wii has certainly sold a lot but I couldn't care less about twirling around a controller while playing the same played out Mario and Zelda games.

I grew up a PC gamer and it was Sony and MS that recognized the strengths of that platform. The PS3 and 360 are glorified PC's...the Wii is just a rebadged GameCube with a gimmick that doesn't appeal to me. I give the innovation award to MS and Sony for the last 15 years.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Again, this is not how corporations think or work. You cannot sit on your pile of money while your operating expenses remain constant. Your assets decrease and your retained earnings go bye bye. Less R.E. = less dividends = people very very upset.. as in the people investing to keep the company working and MAKING money. The market, investors and shareholder do not approve of this and it will hurt them.

Yes, it is a negative thing for them to have decreased. We all agree on that. Nobody here is stupid enough to think that diminished Wii sales and lower profits are a good thing for Nintendo.

However, this thread is titled "Beginning of the End for Nintendo". This is a ridiculously hyperbolic statement.

Again, Nintendo is THE SECOND LARGEST COMPANY IN JAPAN. Saying that a not good (I can't even call it bad) half a year is going to sink them is absolutely ridiculous on its face.

[Ink Asylum]

Personally, I believe controls and gameplay innovations do more to define video gaming than the storage and processing power of hardware, but to each their own.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Modern consoles have optical drives, hard drives, GPU's, ethernet, etc. Those all came from the PC or consoles like the PSX, 3D0, XBox, etc.

Those are not anywhere as key to the console experience as controllers, although they are all very important.

I think Nintendo has always been the company that sticks with the proven formula. They use the same IP over and over and other than the Wii their hardware has never been as cutting edge as their competition.
The N64 was a more powerful device than the PS1 (although with some heavy space limitations due to cartridges - shapes were way better, textures/sound/cutscences were worse). The Gamecube was a more powerful device than the PS2. The Genesis and the SNES were close to equal.

[burger]

The N64 was a more powerful device than the PS1 (although with some heavy space limitations due to cartridges - shapes were way better, textures/sound/cutscences were worse). The Gamecube was a more powerful device than the PS2. The Genesis and the SNES were close to equal.

Processing power is but one attribute. The NeoGeo obliterated the SNES and Genesis but no one sits around saying it defined that generation.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Processing power is but one attribute. The NeoGeo obliterated the SNES and Genesis but no one sits around saying it defined that generation.

You said "Nintendo has always had less cutting edge hardware than the competition" which just isn't true, unless you bring in the dark horse candidate that lost tons of money. Yes, it was less powerful and less feature-heavy than NeoGeo or the Xbox, but neither of those were "the competition" from their point of view.

[OldJadedGamer]

Yes, it is a negative thing for them to have decreased. We all agree on that. Nobody here is stupid enough to think that diminished Wii sales and lower profits are a good thing for Nintendo.

However, this thread is titled "Beginning of the End for Nintendo". This is a ridiculously hyperbolic statement.

Again, Nintendo is THE SECOND LARGEST COMPANY IN JAPAN. Saying that a not good (I can't even call it bad) half a year is going to sink them is absolutely ridiculous on its face.

Add to the fact that Nintendo has never in the history of their company posted a yearly loss. Some quarters may have dipped here and there but again, year in and year out from the entire time the company has existed... they've made a profit.

The "beginning of the end" is a laughable comment especially compared to every other gaming company out there. Not a single one can match Nintendo's profitability over the decades.

[TheFlyingOrc]

The "beginning of the end" is a laughable comment especially compared to every other gaming company out there. Not a single one can match Nintendo's profitability over the decades.

no u don't understand if nintendo has a bad half a year all their investors will immediately sell 100% of their stock and nobody will buy it and they will go bankrupt in 20 minutes.

[OldJadedGamer]

no u don't understand if nintendo has a bad half a year all their investors will immediately sell 100% of their stock and nobody will buy it and they will go bankrupt in 20 minutes.

If investors ditched 100% of their stock at the first bad quarter then Sony would have been bankrupt right after the launch of the PS3.

[Ravenlock]

Look, I'm really just in here to tell you folks that if you don't have a copy of Kirby's Epic Yarn yet, you should get one, because it's one of the best games of the year on any platform.

Nintendo will be fine. Will they remain king of the hill indefinitely? Of course not, nobody does. But back in the Gamecube era people were publicly (and gleefully) predicting that Nintendo was out of the console game for good, and then the Wii owned the fucking house for 4 years. If it's time for them to cool a bit, I'm sure they'll manage.

[Narradisall]

Again, this is not how corporations think or work. You cannot sit on your pile of money while your operating expenses remain constant. Your assets decrease and your retained earnings go bye bye. Less R.E. = less dividends = people very very upset.. as in the people investing to keep the company working and MAKING money. The market, investors and shareholder do not approve of this and it will hurt them.

You took that seriously? I would have listened had it not been for my Ruby encrusted headphones.

So, they posted a loss? Big deal. Will investors be happy? No. Will they dump incredibly profitable long term stock because of one yearly loss, be it the first? Not if they have much sense. They'll be pushing Nintendo to show some sort of 5 year plan for where they aim to take the company, but the idea that Nintendo is on it's way out is just laughable.

Again, as I said, they should be doing something with their console market soon, or diversifying. The Wii will near it's end sooner than the 360 and PS3 which both have decided to extend their life cycles with motion control systems.

I'd only be concerned for Nintendo if they decide to wait for the other two to go next gen rather than be their first. If anything, they should be pushing a next gen in 2 years or so, in order to curb the 360 and PS3 extended life cycles.

[Dukefrukem]

I should make a thread today entitled... "Definitely Not the Beginning of the End for Microsoft"... anyone see their earnings? damn!

[Dukefrukem]

You took that seriously? I would have listened had it not been for my Ruby encrusted headphones.

So, they posted a loss? Big deal. Will investors be happy? No. Will they dump incredibly profitable long term stock because of one yearly loss, be it the first? Not if they have much sense. They'll be pushing Nintendo to show some sort of 5 year plan for where they aim to take the company, but the idea that Nintendo is on it's way out is just laughable.

Again, as I said, they should be doing something with their console market soon, or diversifying. The Wii will near it's end sooner than the 360 and PS3 which both have decided to extend their life cycles with motion control systems.

I'd only be concerned for Nintendo if they decide to wait for the other two to go next gen rather than be their first. If anything, they should be pushing a next gen in 2 years or so, in order to curb the 360 and PS3 extended life cycles.

I don't know why I'm discussing this then if you're just gonna make hyperbolas and skirt around the reason for this thread.

[Dukefrukem]

Add to the fact that Nintendo has never in the history of their company posted a yearly loss. Some quarters may have dipped here and there but again, year in and year out from the entire time the company has existed... they've made a profit.

The "beginning of the end" is a laughable comment especially compared to every other gaming company out there. Not a single one can match Nintendo's profitability over the decades.

You can tell your boy TFO that if he read my first post that I clearly stated that it wasn't the end of Nintendo. This thread was made to discuss the declining Wii sales and the company is now gonna feel repercussions for their decisions. The thread title was merely a ploy to get people in here... If i had made a thread entitled: "Nintendo posts XXXX" it would have been ignored.

[Gorvi]

You can tell your boy TFO that if he read my first post that I clearly stated that it wasn't the end of Nintendo. This thread was made to discuss the declining Wii sales and the company is now gonna feel repercussions for their decisions. The thread title was merely a ploy to get people in here... If i had made a thread entitled: "Nintendo posts XXXX" it would have been ignored.
Take out one of those X's and then you've got a post. ;)

[Dukefrukem]

Take out one of those X's and then you've got a post. ;)

LOL :p

[Chris_D]

Nintendo can post my XXX.

[boratika]

Of course, that begs the question, where the hell is their money going? Did the produce far more Wiis and DSs than they were selling? It sure as hell isn't going into game development and it's not like they're losing money on the Wii and DS. 3DS R&D I guess?

Well, one major factor is the relative strength of the Yen and the pitiful state of the USD. For a Japanese company doing a lot of business in the US, that's a serious blow to earnings. And it comes at an already rough time. Not so much where their money is going, rather why less is coming to them.

Hell, the DS "when it closes every game pauses" is brilliant.

It is brilliant.

[Chris_D]

They should automatically adjust all their retail prices to reflect the value of the yen versus the dollar. For example, multiply by ~1.2. 360 and PS3 games are already $60 anyway. Get with the program Nintendo!

[muddi900]

I am sorry, are people splooging overDS sleep mode? Because that was expected.

Wait, wasnt that feature in the GBA sp

[Gorvi]

I am sorry, are people splooging overDS sleep mode? Because that was expected.

Wait, wasnt that feature in the GBA sp
Some games had it built in, but it wasn't a feature of the actual hardware. Sleep mode in the DS and PSP has been a big feature for me. Simply being able to stop and start at a moment's notice is big when you've got kids. :)

[Chris_D]

I remember being annoyed that sleep mode didn't work for GBA games on the DS. That caught me out a few times (coming back to it and finding the battery dead).

[Suave Peanut]

It really is the currency that's a big problem. Looking at the document linked earlier (http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2010/101028e.pdf), last year Nintendo posted a loss of 664 million yen due to foreign exchange losses. This year, that number jumped to 62,175 million yen. That's like a 9000% increase, dude. They lost about as much money from this as they spent on advertising and R&D combined.

And if you look at the last page, not every region is seeing this huge sales decline. In the United States, Wii hardware sales are up 2.5% over the same period last year. It's totally unfair to declare that "no one wants a Wii anymore."

[boratika]

And if you look at the last page, not every region is seeing this huge sales decline. In the United States, Wii hardware sales are up 2.5% over the same period last year. It's totally unfair to declare that "no one wants a Wii anymore."

Yeah, but if your currency is worth nothing, so are you :p

[Telefrog]

1. Not surprising that Wii sales are declining sharply. There's only so many opportunities for sale in the casual console gaming vertical. This audience buys one or two games and they're done, unlike core gamers that can be counted on for sustained sales.

2. Nintendo will continue to make piles of money.

[Mike Kelehan]

Yeah, really not worried about them. They're about to launch the 3DS, which is going to sell like nobody's business... and this time, they're pricing it in such a way that they'll be able to profit from its demand, rather than just the eBayers.

[Narradisall]

I don't know why I'm discussing this then if you're just gonna make hyperbolas and skirt around the reason for this thread.

I had to laugh. At calling my post hyperbole with a thread title like that?

Begining of the end of the Wii, perhaps, but I believe I already covered them needing to move towards a next gen in the posts you didn't need to discuss. ;)

[Panthera]

Just a point for a lot of people in this thread - innovation does not necessarily mean the actual production of a specific technology. A chip is nothing without the device implementation.

[Panthera]

That wasn't Bluetooth, it was RF.

It wasn't pasta, it was durum wheat.

[Gorvi]

It wasn't pasta, it was durum wheat.
It also wasn't the first wireless controller, just the first put out by a first party. The Wavebird is a great controller, don't get me wrong, but we've had wireless controllers for years.

[TheFlyingOrc]

You can tell your boy TFO that if he read my first post that I clearly stated that it wasn't the end of Nintendo. This thread was made to discuss the declining Wii sales and the company is now gonna feel repercussions for their decisions. The thread title was merely a ploy to get people in here... If i had made a thread entitled: "Nintendo posts XXXX" it would have been ignored.

LOL @ "your boy TFO".

Dude, if you're poor at expressing yourself through text (hint: you are) you don't get to get mad at someone for poorly interpreting you. Although it would have been far less ridiculous to title the thread "the beginning of the end of the Wii", although still ridiculous.

And, of course, make sure to accuse other posters of hyperbole for responding to what you actually say.

[Panthera]

It also wasn't the first wireless controller, just the first put out by a first party. The Wavebird is a great controller, don't get me wrong, but we've had wireless controllers for years.

Just pointing out that making the distinction there is kind of pointless, since they're both RF technologies.

[JayVe]

I think what we may be seeing with the decline in Wii sales, is the end of the beginning for Nintendo.

[Karmakin]

Beginning of the end? Nah. It's just a transition into the next phase, which will be the 3DS.

[Panthera]

Beginning of the end? Nah. It's just a transition into the next phase, which will be the 3DS.

You might want to reread that post.

[boratika]

It also wasn't the first wireless controller, just the first put out by a first party. The Wavebird is a great controller, don't get me wrong, but we've had wireless controllers for years.

It certainly wasn't even the first RF controller, (as opposed to IR.) Oh no, they were beaten by a fair margin (http://www.atarimuseum.com/videogames/consoles/2600/2600rc.html). The thing about the wavebird was that it was the first wireless controller actually worth a damn. (There seems to be some parallels to draw here with analogue directional inputs :D) The main reason being, that this was one technology* Nintendo jumped on, pretty much as soon as it existed, to the point where, even though the wavebird was announced and a prototype demoed at the same time as the Gamecube itself, it was still implausible for them to release it until a year after the Gamecube itself was.

[edit]*by which I mean that there was pretty big advances in integrated circuits for IR communications in the late 1990s/early 2000s as evidenced by the sudden drop in size of phones from bricks and things like Bluetooth suddenly became a real (and practical) thing around that time.

[Dukefrukem]

I had to laugh. At calling my post hyperbole with a thread title like that?

Begining of the end of the Wii, perhaps, but I believe I already covered them needing to move towards a next gen in the posts you didn't need to discuss. ;)

Again... read the fucking first post. Everyone keeps attacking the thread title but how about the content I provided in the first 5 posts?

[Mr. Murphy]

I don't feel like reading a thread when the entire thing is based on a silly, spurious, hyperbolic statement.

[Dukefrukem]

I don't feel like reading a thread when the entire thing is based on a silly, spurious, hyperbolic statement.

Yet you'll post in one. :cool:

[Gorvi]

I don't feel like reading a thread when the entire thing is based on a silly, spurious, hyperbolic statement.
I have absolutely no idea why your post reminded me of this:


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FBPpiM_jxSI/S3JuGq7bY0I/AAAAAAAAAlU/aCo3FSLSFqY/s400/cartoon_harp_n_accordion.jpg

[Mr. Murphy]

Yet you'll post in one. :cool:

You seemed curious why people were attacking your thread title and not the thread content; I gave you my reason. Just trying to help a brother out! :D

I have a drastic problem with sensationalist media, and headlining your thread as you did when in the post itself you say "That's not what I meant, I just meant the Wii" is a pretty good example of sensationalist media. You can't honestly expect anyone to take you seriously when the very first sentence (the thread title) is contradicted by your second sentence.

It's all good tho. Just saying, since you asked, why myself (and I assume others) would give this particular conversation a pass.

[Dukefrukem]

You seemed curious why people were attacking your thread title and not the thread content; I gave you my reason. Just trying to help a brother out! :D

I have a drastic problem with sensationalist media, and headlining your thread as you did when in the post itself you say "That's not what I meant, I just meant the Wii" is a pretty good example of sensationalist media. You can't honestly expect anyone to take you seriously when the very first sentence (the thread title) is contradicted by your second sentence.

It's all good tho. Just saying, since you asked, why myself (and I assume others) would give this particular conversation a pass.

I understand, most of the time people read (at least) the first post. There's been a ton of threads around here with thread titles to draw people in and the first two words are: "just kidding"...

[Narradisall]

Again... read the fucking first post. Everyone keeps attacking the thread title but how about the content I provided in the first 5 posts?

I did. Something you seem to have skimmed over in my own posts where I have mentioned that Nintendo need to be moving onto their next gen, or pushing something new out. Heck, I even posted "Begining of the end of the Wii" in my last post. That should have given you a hint that I read the context. So don't accuse me of lacking reading comprehension.

So don't get uppity. Just chill.

Just to clarify, in case you still think I missed the point...

First post
I think at this point unless they diversify, then yes, Nintendo can't 'grow' a ton more where they are. The end of the Wii era was predictable. Nintendo can't extend their gen like the PS3 and 360 are, so they have to either move to a next gen or watch sales decline.[/B]

Second Post
PS: I do think they need to be doing something with their console market within a year though.

Third post.
Again, as I said, they should be doing something with their console market soon, or diversifying. The Wii will near it's end sooner than the 360 and PS3 which both have decided to extend their life cycles with motion control systems.

So, still think I ignored the issue of the Wii lifecycle being at its end? Or did you just miss my three separate posts where I highlighted the exact issue you were discussing and my opinions on where they should go with it?

[Wasson_]

I have absolutely no idea why your post reminded me of this:


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FBPpiM_jxSI/S3JuGq7bY0I/AAAAAAAAAlU/aCo3FSLSFqY/s400/cartoon_harp_n_accordion.jpg

I like to imagine a world were Gary Larsen was / is actually Tom Servo from MST3K...the humor just matches perfectly.

[Akela]

Beginning of the end for the Wii. Nintendo is definitely far from "the end".

This. /10char

[Vasanni]

All I pray is that the fine tradition of gaming is carried on through controllers. When I'm home from work and tired I just want to lie down on the couch and play something. Not sit dead center of my tv sitting up to swing a wiimote, or move my arms or the ice cream cone. Call me lazy for it, but the dust covered stack of wii games that I'd love to play but can't stand the controls for are a testament to it.

[TheKeck]

All I pray is that the fine tradition of gaming is carried on through controllers. When I'm home from work and tired I just want to lie down on the couch and play something. Not sit dead center of my tv sitting up to swing a wiimote, or move my arms or the ice cream cone. Call me lazy for it, but the dust covered stack of wii games that I'd love to play but can't stand the controls for are a testament to it.
There's not a Wii game I can't play sitting on my couch. :)

[Vigil80]

Waggle sucks, is the point. :)

[TheFlyingOrc]

Waggle sucks, is the point. :)

Agreed, but pointing is actually pretty sweet.

[muddi900]

Kirby's Canvas Curse.


Fuck I need to buy that game!

[Yeti2005]

Waggle sucks, is the point. :)

Sony just spent a boat load creating higher quality waggle so there's obviously some demand out there for it.

[Gorvi]

Kirby's Canvas Curse.


Fuck I need to buy that game!
You absolutely do, it's a fantastic use of the touch screen.

[Ravenlock]

Waggle sucks, is the point. :)

Original grade waggle sucked a lot of the time, but not always - games like Mercury Meltdown Revolution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_Meltdown_Revolution) actually used the accelerometer to great effect, and The Godfather: Blackhand Edition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Godfather:_The_Game#Wii) was a great implementation of motion control fighting.

WiiMotionPlus-grade waggle is actually very good. Both Red Steel 2 and Tiger Woods '10 use it very well and do things with it that I consider much more effective than they'd be with standard dual analog controls. And I still love the swordfighting and archery in Wii Sports Resort.

And as TFO points out, pointing has always been and still is awesome.

Kirby's Canvas Curse.

Fuck I need to buy that game!

Yeah you do. Also Kirby's Epic Yarn. Because it's wonderful.

[Vigil80]

Sony just spent a boat load creating higher quality waggle so there's obviously some demand out there for it.
Nah. They (hopefully) graduated to something like honest to goodness motion control, or a high grade of Orc's "pointing."

It remains to be seen how successful it is now that it's an iteration and not a "revolution," anyway, which can also be said of the WiiMotionPlus. It's folly to suggest that Nintendo's success was based entirely on the merits of their waggle technology.

[MagGnome]

Constant growth is near impossible, especially for things like the Wii and DS that sold so high for so long. The only real negative in that article is Nintendo actually posting a loss for the first time in 7 years. Of course, that begs the question, where the hell is their money going? Did the produce far more Wiis and DSs than they were selling? It sure as hell isn't going into game development and it's not like they're losing money on the Wii and DS. 3DS R&D I guess?

In the United States, growth is expected to continue forever. Obviously this is impossible, but unfortunately that's the reality we live in. It's the basis for a lot of problems with our economy, but I won't get into those here.

As for the rest of your post, I'm somewhat baffled by this loss as well. Nintendo losing money at this point seems a little silly to me, so someone must not have planned well for the inevitable decline in Wii sales. Maybe now they'll actually put some real effort back into game development. I can dream, right? Sadly, they'll likely just port Animal Crossing to the 3DS...and we'll get the same damn game for the fifth time. :/

[MagGnome]

D-Pad. Shoulder buttons. Force feedback. The trigger button. Analog Stick. Wireless controllers. Motion control. Maybe Nintendo didn't invent these things directly like Graham Bell gave birth to the telephone, but the specific application Nintendo developed for each of these technologies, before their competitors, is innovative.

I really hate to jump into silly arguments about "innovation", but most of those things were already in use for gaming on the PC and some less-popular console systems.

[boratika]

I really hate to jump into silly arguments about "innovation", but most of those things were already in use for gaming on the PC and some less-popular console systems.

Examples ?

[MagGnome]

Examples ?

I'm not going to take the time to dig around online for links to very specific examples. Suffice it to say that there were many PC controllers that had force feedback, triggers, wireless, etc. I'm pretty sure that there were controllers out with shoulder buttons as well.

[Vigil80]

I'll vouch for that. Come on, flight sticks and steering wheels are a PC tradition. I'm pretty sure Logitech, Saitek, or a similar company had figured out analog and triggers.

[Urizen]

I really hate to jump into silly arguments about "innovation", but most of those things were already in use for gaming on the PC and some less-popular console systems.

I really hate to jump into sily arguments about "semantics", but you didn't read or understand my post.

[MagGnome]

How could I reply to your post if I didn't read it?

The very notion is absurd.

[Panthera]

I'm not going to take the time to dig around online for links to very specific examples. Suffice it to say that there were many PC controllers that had force feedback, triggers, wireless, etc. I'm pretty sure that there were controllers out with shoulder buttons as well.

I'm pretty sure PC gamepads were all made in imitation of console ones after the fact. Do you have any examples to the contrary?

[Ravenlock]

I don't think you're going to find anything on the PC that wasn't a joystick preceding the Famicom/NES (1983), so in the strictest terms, yes, I think PC gamepads would have followed console ones. As for where the joystick first showed up, I don't know whether the Atari 2600 (1977) came before or after a PC joystick but it certainly seems likely that Atari had it first.

As for the existence of a PC "gamepad" with an analog stick before the N64, triggers before the SNES, or force feedback before the rumble pack (which was also N64, incidentally), I have no idea. I'd be curious to see examples if they do exist.

[Gorvi]

According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analog_stick#History) it looks like the Saturn may have had the first analog stick as the N64's stick was still technically digital:
In 1982 Atari released their first controller with a potentiometer-based analog stick for their Atari 5200 home console. However, the non-centering joystick design proved to be ungainly and unreliable, alienating many consumers at the time. During that same year, General Consumer Electronics introduced the Vectrex, a vector graphics based system which used a self-centering analog stick, a precursor to the modern design. For many years, consoles ignored analog technology, instead using the digital D-pad. It was not until the emergence of 3D gameplay that the analog stick was brought back for widespread use.

On 26 April, 1996[2], Sony released a potentiometer-based analog joystick for use in Flight-Simulation games. The Sony Dual Analog FlightStick featured twin analog sticks and was used in games such as "Descent" to provide a much greater degree of freedom than the typical digital joysticks of the day.

Initially announced for release on April 21, 1996, Nintendo released their Nintendo 64 controller on June 24, 1996[3]. The new controller included a thumb-operated control stick which, while a digital stick[4] (the stick operated on the same principles as a mechanical computer mouse), still allowed for a varying levels of movement and near-360-degree control, translating into far more precise movements than were possible with a D-pad.
The optional Sega Saturn analog controller that came packaged with some copies of Nights into Dreams...

On July 5, 1996, Sega released Nights into Dreams... for their Saturn console in Japan; bundled with it was the Saturn 3D control pad which featured an analog pad intended to give the player more fluid control over that game's flight-based gameplay. The controller would also serve as a basis for the Dreamcast controller.

On April 25, 1997[2], Sony released a similar analog stick, based on the same potentiometer technology that was used in the larger Dual Analog Flightstick. The Sony Dual Analog controller featured rumble, three modes of analog (Flightstick, Full Analog and Analog-Off), and dual plastic concave thumbsticks, while Nintendo and Sega's controllers only had a single stick.

On November 20, 1997[2], Sony released their third analog controller to the market: the DualShock. The controller featured similar twin analog sticks to the Dual Analog, although they featured convex rubber tips rather than concave plastic ones. Sony also removed the third analog (flightstick) mode and added two new buttons, L3 and R3, under the thumbsticks, which could be used by pressing down on the sticks.

In 1999, Sony's Ape Escape became the first major video game to require the use of two analog sticks.

In the console generations that followed, all major video game console controllers have included two analog sticks, with the exception of the Dreamcast and Nintendo's non-classic Wii controllers. Other exceptions to this dual-stick rule are Sony's PlayStation Portable and Nintendo's 3DS handheld game consoles, which both feature only a single small flat analog stick.

[quidmonkey]

Agreed, but pointing is actually pretty sweet.

I don't mind the waggle, it's the IR I don't care for. Having to point at the screen? No thanks, it's tiring. Mouse > IR.

[JayVe]

Mouse > IR > Joystick Reticule

I'd rather FPS with a pointer than a joystick, although each control option has games for which it is best suited.

[Generation ABXY]

For what it's worth, I much prefer the IR pointer to a mouse (but then, I've also only ever been an occasional PC gamer). To each their own, of course, though.

[Chris_D]

I find the IR pointer to be a pain in the ass. Having to keep my hand steady, trying to find the screen... also, with the pointers of 3 other players flying around, urgh...

[JayVe]

I just realized that not all 'mice' are created equal.

I tried playing Starcraft on someone's laptop using their touchpad. Touchpad <> mouse! There are advantages/disadvantages to each control scheme. The Wii's IR pointing has a number of advantages compared to mice and joysticks. But mice and joysticks have their own advantages. Trackpads are good at some things, but not everything.

[TheFlyingOrc]

I don't mind the waggle, it's the IR I don't care for. Having to point at the screen? No thanks, it's tiring. Mouse > IR.

Oh, I don't prefer it to mouse, but I don't find it that inconvenient.

[Ravenlock]

Have never understood the "tiring" complaint for the IR pointer. I just rest my arm on my leg or the arm of my chair, and that gives me plenty of range of motion for everything I need to do as far as pointing and shooting goes. It's no more arm strain than resting my arm on my desk to move my mouse.

Anyhow, GoldenEye on the Wii is pretty good you guys. I made a thread about it (http://www.colonyofgamers.com/cogforums/showthread.php?t=20404). If you have a Wii and like shooting stuff, consider picking it up.

[burger]

Have never understood the "tiring" complaint for the IR pointer. I just rest my arm on my leg or the arm of my chair, and that gives me plenty of range of motion for everything I need to do as far as pointing and shooting goes. It's no more arm strain than resting my arm on my desk to move my mouse.

At that point why even use a pointer then? Might as well just use a mouse. I don't think that's what Nintendo had in mind.

[Panthera]

At that point why even use a pointer then? Might as well just use a mouse. I don't think that's what Nintendo had in mind.

A mouse isn't as comfortable on a couch. I don't think Nintendo had arm strain in mind.

[TheFlyingOrc]

At that point why even use a pointer then? Might as well just use a mouse. I don't think that's what Nintendo had in mind.

A mouse does not work well without a slightly raised platform in front of you. They're just awful to operate if they're near your waist.

[burger]

A mouse isn't as comfortable on a couch. I don't think Nintendo had arm strain in mind.

The point I was making is that Nintendo envisioned the user making realistic arm motions with the wiimote.

Notice how every ad for it shows people standing in their living rooms making large swinging motions with their arms. They don't show some lazy COG member sitting in his recliner flicking his wrist. :p


A mouse does not work well without a slightly raised platform in front of you. They're just awful to operate if they're near your waist.

I think most people would agree with you...I personally use a mouse in this way every day in my home theater but I concede that it took some getting use to and it's not for everyone.

[Xerxes]

I keep thinking they are on a good streak. And with move and kinect coming out WAY stronger than I would of imagined, now would be a good time for a tiny price drop. Nintendo says fuck that noise. I don't get it. <shrug>

[Ravenlock]

The point I was making is that Nintendo envisioned the user making realistic arm motions with the wiimote.

Notice how every ad for it shows people standing in their living rooms making large swinging motions with their arms. They don't show some lazy COG member sitting in his recliner flicking his wrist. :p

Because they're advertising to idiots who aren't thinking about the fact that diving behind your couch as though someone were actually shooting at you - in addition to making no sense - is probably really tiring. ;)

To your original point, of course I would rather use a mouse. Which is why I play most FPS games on the PC by choice. But if I'm stuck on a console I would much rather use IR than dual-analog. I'm just saying that I don't see "arm strain" as a valid knock against the IR controls when it's essentially completely optional.

[muddi900]

Apparently gamers are little princesses who do not know how to use the wiimote. Or they belong in some puritanical cult that has forbidden the use of game controllers in ways unintended by the manufacturer. They also believe that discomfort is key in game controller design.

I would like to point pout though, the wii pointer is NOT as accurate as an analog stick in most cases. At best it is just as good, but never better. To me, there is only one 'real' game that actually uses the pointer correctly; Meteroid. Yes there are plenty of 'me too' FPS ports that do the control scheme right, but they aren't very good otherwise.

[Panthera]

The point I was making is that Nintendo envisioned the user making realistic arm motions with the wiimote.

Notice how every ad for it shows people standing in their living rooms making large swinging motions with their arms. They don't show some lazy COG member sitting in his recliner flicking his wrist. :p

That's because we're talking about the pointer, not the 'waggle'.

[Ravenlock]

I would like to point pout though, the wii pointer is NOT as accurate as an analog stick in most cases. At best it is just as good, but never better. To me, there is only one 'real' game that actually uses the pointer correctly; Meteroid. Yes there are plenty of 'me too' FPS ports that do the control scheme right, but they aren't very good otherwise.

As I've said repeatedly, having played it on all three major systems (PC, Wii and 360), my preference for Call of Duty: World at War is the same order: PC > Wii > 360. I found playing it on the Wii to be far more precise and enjoyable than playing it with dual analog controls. Obviously CoD: WAW isn't a sterling example of a great FPS, but it controlled well with the Wiimote.

[TheFlyingOrc]

I would like to point pout though, the wii pointer is NOT as accurate as an analog stick in most cases. At best it is just as good, but never better. To me, there is only one 'real' game that actually uses the pointer correctly; Meteroid. Yes there are plenty of 'me too' FPS ports that do the control scheme right, but they aren't very good otherwise.
Just disagree. I think it's roughly as accurate and FAR quicker than a stick.

[RandoM51]

Just disagree. I think it's roughly as accurate and FAR quicker than a stick.

The speed is a game problem, not a hardware problem. There is no reason an analog stick couldn't be mapped to cover the entire screen within its axis of motion. If the game supports sensitivity adjustments for the sticks you can probably do it yourself.

When configured that way it should be faster than a wii-mote.

Accuracy is a wash, after all, you can hit any pixel with any device. It isn't like either of these have an MoA grouping for where the cursor goes vs. where you wanted it to go. The lack of return-to-center behavior for a wii-mote throws people off at first but you get used to it. That is software and not hardware too.

Apples and oranges anyway unless you're working with the same game on both systems and at the same resolution.

[Ravenlock]

Agree with all of that, but having played PC and console games my whole life I still find it far more intuitive and pleasurable to quickly aim and shoot at stuff with a Wiimote than I do with an analog stick. Obviously that's a matter of preference and not an empirical measurement.

But it isn't speculation to say that dual analog players can't maneuver and respond with the same speed and accuracy as KB+mouse players can. That's been tried and the results have been consistent as far as I've ever heard. I suspect the Wiimote would have some of the same advantages, if ever anything was to pit them against each other. Of course, that's unlikely to ever happen, so anecdotal evidence is all we'll have. Anecdotally, when it's well implemented I both perform better and have more fun in an FPS with the Wiimote than I do with dual analog.

[Chris_D]

Well I guess Golden Eye players can go head to head with Wiimote vs Classic controller? Although I think the autoaim is different for each.

[Ravenlock]

Hrm - that's true, and would I guess be the most valid comparison we're going to get. I wonder if the online play tracks who's using which control method. When my Wii is back from the shop, I'll check and let you know.

I can tell you that both do a snap-to-target when you aim down the sights, though the sensitivity of it is probably tweaked for each method (and can be further customized by the user).

[Dukefrukem]

Profits down 46% (http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/27/nintendo-q3-profits-down-46-percent-slashes-console-sales-proje/)

[TheFlyingOrc]

Profits down 46% (http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/27/nintendo-q3-profits-down-46-percent-slashes-console-sales-proje/)

oh no what will they do now that they are still making way more than the other two manufacturers!!!!

They're still outselling the competition, and they were hurt by a strong yen. Also, they still made a profit, they just aren't the runaway success they were, AND that article mentioned an increase in software sales.

[RandoM51]

Did anybody expect the Wii---or any console for that matter---to last forever?

Crying doom and gloom after such an awesome run seems like sour grapes to me.

[Ink Asylum]

Not surprising. Their two systems are either at the end of their life cycle or near to it. With the 3DS dropping in two month I think those numbers will jump very soon.

[Bone]

It's a real shame when the Nintendo Mint is cranking out only half the raw money it was printing before!

They're gonna be OK, they'll just have to buck up and line their mattresses with a little less cash. Seriously... profits are still being measured with the word Billion, with Wii and DS sales in Millions (both consoles I would have expected to have saturated the market already).

[MagGnome]

Has the Wii sold more than the PS2?

[burger]

Has the Wii sold more than the PS2?

Nope...the Wii has sold 70 million.

The PS2 was well over 140 million.

[OldJadedGamer]

Has the Wii sold more than the PS2?

Not yet, but the DS did.

Did anybody expect the Wii---or any console for that matter---to last forever?

Crying doom and gloom after such an awesome run seems like sour grapes to me.

Normal console cycles are 5 years and the Wii is about 4 1/2 so this sounds about right. Considering the system was sold for a profit since the day it launched, it's been a great system for them.

[JayVe]

Has the Wii sold more than the PS2?

No, but the Wii has sold more in its 4 & 1/2 years on the market than the PS2 sold in its first 4 & 1/2 years on the market.

[burger]

Normal console cycles are 5 years and the Wii is about 4 1/2 so this sounds about right. Considering the system was sold for a profit since the day it launched, it's been a great system for them.

Neither MS nor Sony are looking to launch a new console anytime soon. They've decided to go with Kinect and Move to extend the life of this generation.

What is Nintendo going to do? Have they announced a new console? A new version of the Wii? Wii HD?

I don't think Nintendo is going to be satisfied with doing well for the first half of this generation. What about the remainder? Both MS and Sony have brought new life to their consoles.

[MagGnome]

I'm surprised the Wii hasn't hit 100,000,000 yet, given all the talk about how it "expanded the gaming market".

[Dukefrukem]

Neither MS nor Sony are looking to launch a new console anytime soon. They've decided to go with Kinect and Move to extend the life of this generation.

What is Nintendo going to do? Have they announced a new console? A new version of the Wii? Wii HD?

I don't think Nintendo is going to be satisfied with doing well for the first half of this generation. What about the remainder? Both MS and Sony have brought new life to their consoles.

They did actually announce plans for a Wii HD

[OldJadedGamer]

Neither MS nor Sony are looking to launch a new console anytime soon. They've decided to go with Kinect and Move to extend the life of this generation.

What is Nintendo going to do? Have they announced a new console? A new version of the Wii? Wii HD?

I don't think Nintendo is going to be satisfied with doing well for the first half of this generation. What about the remainder? Both MS and Sony have brought new life to their consoles.

Nintendo has way beyond proven that what their competitors do has zero effect on them.

[TheFlyingOrc]

They did actually announce plans for a Wii HD

I'm fairly certain this isn't true.

Most people are speculating that Nintendo's next system will come earlier than the other guys. I'd estimate that they'll get somewhere around the numbers of the PS2 in the long term, but a lack of quality software in years 2 and 3 kept them from really growing their market at the rate you'd expect given their awesome early numbers.

Wiis are still selling like crazy, they just aren't selling like SUPER crazy. The next console will need to strike back hard at Kinect, because I think Microsoft is slowly going to take the casual market if they don't.

[boratika]

Well, looks as if they haven't changed their annual operating profit forecast from where they put it in September, so, I won't shed a tear for them just yet.

I'm surprised the Wii hasn't hit 100,000,000 yet, given all the talk about how it "expanded the gaming market".

The earnings report that the engadget article is talking about puts the number of Wii sold up to December 31st at 84.64million and their (now revised down) estimate for this year is 16million, so they reckon they can crack the 100million mark this year.

[JayVe]

I'm surprised the Wii hasn't hit 100,000,000 yet, given all the talk about how it "expanded the gaming market".

The Wii did expand the gaming market. My parents and siblings purchased a Wii. They haven't owned a system since Colecovision. They didn't buy a 360 or PS3.

They are part of the expanded market. Expanded means 'outside the people who typically buy these devices'. The people who usually buy home consoles, got a 360 or PS3. The expanded audience purchased Wiis.

Expanded market does not mean, 'more than the other guy'. It means 'different audience.'

[TheFlyingOrc]

The Wii did expand the gaming market. My parents and siblings purchased a Wii. They haven't owned a system since Colecovision. They didn't buy a 360 or PS3.

They are part of the expanded market. Expanded means 'outside the people who typically buy these devices'. The people who usually buy home consoles, got a 360 or PS3. The expanded audience purchased Wiis.

Expanded market does not mean, 'more than the other guy'. It means 'different audience.'

The sum total of consoles sold this generation is way, WAAAAY higher than the previous generation at the same point. Last gen was PS2: 144, Gamecube 22, Xbox 24, for a total of 190 million (200 if you wanna count the dreamcast).

This one is a little over 5 years in, and you've got 84.4 million for the Wii, 51 million for the 360, and 46.9 for the PS3. 182 million already, and the increased numbers aren't coming from Sony. We'll have more consoles sold overall in about 6 months. In a GREATLY reduced amount of time.

[JayVe]

The sum total of consoles sold this generation is way, WAAAAY higher than the previous generation at the same point. Last gen was PS2: 144, Gamecube 22, Xbox 24, for a total of 190 million (200 if you wanna count the dreamcast).

This one is a little over 5 years in, and you've got 84.4 million for the Wii, 51 million for the 360, and 46.9 for the PS3. 182 million already, and the increased numbers aren't coming from Sony. We'll have more consoles sold overall in about 6 months. In a GREATLY reduced amount of time.

Sounds like an expanded audience to me! :D

[TheFlyingOrc]

Sounds like an expanded audience to me! :D

I'm expanding right now just thinking about it!

[burger]

Expanded market does not mean, 'more than the other guy'. It means 'different audience.'

Actually expand means to enlarge or increase. I don't know what dictionary you've been using! :p

[JayVe]

Actually expand means to enlarge or increase. I don't know what dictionary you've been using! :p

:D Touche!

In business terms, you have expanded the customer base to customers that would otherwise not have normally purchased your product. It is not an 'increased audience', with more people buying the same thing... but expanded to reach across different demographic lines.

There are MORE people buying games now than there were last generation. They may not be buying the same types of games, or in the same quantity... but they are buying. This includes things like iPhone games and Cooking Mama.

[burger]

:D Touche!

In business terms, you have expanded the customer base to customers that would otherwise not have normally purchased your product. It is not an 'increased audience', with more people buying the same thing... but expanded to reach across different demographic lines.

There are MORE people buying games now than there were last generation. They may not be buying the same types of games, or in the same quantity... but they are buying. This includes things like iPhone games and Cooking Mama.

There is no reputable business school on the planet that teachers its students that to "expand" means to "change".

Expand means just that...to expand. Nintendo has not expanded the number of owners. What it has expanded though are POTENTIAL customers. No longer are they limited to just gamers buying their product. The problem though is that in their attempt to expand the range of potential customers they lost some of the hardcore gamers and simply replaced them with casual gamers.

In other words they have a larger cross section buying their stuff but they didn't manager to expand the install base because they had to make trade offs in the appeal.

[Widgetcraft]

For the record, so far as I know, the market has always been "expanding." The video game industry is still relatively new. The Atari 2600 was released about 35 or so years ago.

[CES]

For the record, so far as I know, the market has always been "expanding." The video game industry is still relatively new. The Atari 2600 was released about 35 or so years ago.

Except for Atari causing the market to implode in the early 80's through rampant stupidity, yes, it's always been expanding. Largely thanks to Nintendo too, the NES made gaming popular again and the SNES/Genesis wars were a thing of legend.

Nintendo are a confusing company though, they've innovated and pioneered some of the most fundamental hardware in gaming but their software/IP is always accused of stagnation.

[Narradisall]

I'm still hoping they have an ace up their sleave with the next gen. As Sony and MS are going to go strong for another 2 years or so with the Move and Kinect, if Nintendo don't kick out something awesome in that time they will be in trouble.

Plus having a more powerful, improved Wii2 out in a year or so will push Sony and MS to jump to the next gen asap, since I imagine the suits will think it the way to go, and nintendo could push them into a new gen earlier and less prepaired.

Ofc as a gamer I'm happy in this gen for another few years, but if I were Nintendo I'd be working towards the next gen ahead of the other 2.

[Dukefrukem]

For the record, so far as I know, the market has always been "expanding." The video game industry is still relatively new. The Atari 2600 was released about 35 or so years ago.

What's your point with this statement? The cell phone industry didn't hit mainstream until 2000 (11 years ago) and it's what? 10 times the size of the video game industry?

Expanding as a "business" is completely different than expanding as an "industry".

[JayVe]

Plus having a more powerful, improved Wii2 out in a year or so will push Sony and MS to jump to the next gen asap, since I imagine the suits will think it the way to go, and nintendo could push them into a new gen earlier and less prepaired.
Gotta know when to hold 'em... know when to fold 'em. Nintendo's track record as a card game maker comes full circle. You are right, Nintendo could push the other two to release consoles sooner than they like. Wii2 could have something amazing up its sleeve.

Then again, we may just see a race to the bottom for the next few years. Wii can still drop in price, becoming the $99 powerhouse. I know Kinect is selling like gangbusters. I'm not so sure how healthy Move sales are.

Edit: A new SuperWii that plays all your old Wii games in HD would be a great way to get people to upgrade. Your old library will be seen as an investment. It would get people to purchase a new system, likely delaying the purchase of a competitor's system. It will also leverage on the millions of people who already have Wii and further entrench Nintendo as the home console to displace. Like you said above, it could also force the competition to move earlier than they are ready.

[Gorvi]

I don't think a Wii HD would really push MS or Sony to release a new console. I doubt Nintendo would technologically leapfrog the PS3 or 360, which could easily both go for another 3 years. The big deal with the Wii was because it was unique, not it's graphics. I think they may have a hard time with their next console finding a unique selling point now that the competition both have motion controls.

[MagGnome]

A new Wii could up-res the old Wii games, but it could not really make them HD, per se. The textures and models can't change that much.

[Yeti2005]

I don't think a Wii HD would really push MS or Sony to release a new console.

I agree but for some reason I really wouldn't mind a Wii HD (unless the Dolphin emulator on PS3 gets finished).

[OldJadedGamer]

A new Wii could up-res the old Wii games, but it could not really make them HD, per se. The textures and models can't change that much.

Right, look at how the port of Dead Space Extraction looks on PS3 and that's what it will more than likely be like.

[Gorvi]

I agree but for some reason I really wouldn't mind a Wii HD (unless the Dolphin emulator on PS3 gets finished).
Oh, I'd like it, but I don't think the market that the Wii has carved out for itself will really buy into the whole "this is the Wii but just a bit prettier" pitch. Unless they're able to price it very low, that is. You can already buy a bare bones 360 for $200, so if Nintendo were to come out with a similar level of tech you would assume they could do it for around that price point, but is that enough to get the masses to go out and get a new machine?
Right, look at how the port of Dead Space Extraction looks on PS3 and that's what it will more than likely be like.
It would probably be closer to compare it to what upscaled PS2 games looked like on the older model PS3s, I'm pretty sure they reworked at least some of the assets for Extraction.

[Ravenlock]

A new Wii could up-res the old Wii games, but it could not really make them HD, per se. The textures and models can't change that much.

While this is true, take a look at some screenshots of the Dolphin emulator running some of the prettier Wii games at high resolution.

They look pretty damned good. ;)

[JayVe]

While this is true, take a look at some screenshots of the Dolphin emulator running some of the prettier Wii games at high resolution.

They look pretty damned good. ;)

Yes. Yes they do (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1144081).

http://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pG6h76_ywyjkxyNPsM5c2lQuXYDhhBZky_HiLE5RpbydSmnF GdLfHLs9z1jfye8c8HLY0mhfzVAWY_lYejj6xzQ/Metroid%20Prime%203%2004.jpg
http://i47.tinypic.com/dyvkzt.jpg

Even GameCube games look great running in HD.

http://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pSI8etZKO_1lB6sJSr8lpGKkQIdUH1AxDxBAt6Z4OQqtMWxU HlId0fELE4k7xrfmSacUSyvGJM6mdv5lib0J-vw/Zelda%20WW%2022.jpg

[Chris_D]

Cross twitter post:

The only way to play Last Story? RT @NickRoxNRX Last Story on Dolphin: The graphics will make you say "wow". http://bit.ly/fQBYMy

[Widgetcraft]

What's your point with this statement? The cell phone industry didn't hit mainstream until 2000 (11 years ago) and it's what? 10 times the size of the video game industry?

Expanding as a "business" is completely different than expanding as an "industry".

Well, I'm going to have to claim ignorance on the second part of your post, because I have no idea as to the difference or how it is relevant to this post. What I do know is that people were using increased overall sales numbers for game consoles from one generation to another as evidence of the Wii expanding the market, when in reality we always see an increase in overall sales for game consoles from one generation to another because the industry is still new and growing rapidly.

[Gorvi]

While this is true, take a look at some screenshots of the Dolphin emulator running some of the prettier Wii games at high resolution.

They look pretty damned good. ;)
Now I'm about as technically incompetent as you can get with this kind of thing, but I seem to remember a discussion when talking about the PSP Phone potentially running PSP games that emulation can be incredibly difficult and resource intensive, even on more powerful hardware. While you may be able to do some crazy upscaling on a nice PC emulator where you've got more power, doing that on a console could be significantly more difficult, especially when trying to do it across an entire library of games.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Well, I'm going to have to claim ignorance on the second part of your post, because I have no idea as to the difference or how it is relevant to this post. What I do know is that people were using increased overall sales numbers for game consoles from one generation to another as evidence of the Wii expanding the market, when in reality we always see an increase in overall sales for game consoles from one generation to another because the industry is still new and growing rapidly.

The difference is huge, though. Wiis could still very easily outsell the PS2 - remember, they're at $200. On top of this, the other two have already outsold the second and 3rd place of last generation. Remove Nintendo from the equation, and, even with the increased sales you'd get of 360s and PS3s, this generation would have seen a huge drop in overall console sales. The growth factor is Nintendo.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Now I'm about as technically incompetent as you can get with this kind of thing, but I seem to remember a discussion when talking about the PSP Phone potentially running PSP games that emulation can be incredibly difficult and resource intensive, even on more powerful hardware. While you may be able to do some crazy upscaling on a nice PC emulator where you've got more power, doing that on a console could be significantly more difficult, especially when trying to do it across an entire library of games.

It is more expensive on your hardware - you basically have to do extra work for every single thing you do. However, the Wii is so weak compared to just-released hardware that the strain will be easily overcome.

Part of the problem with doing this on the PSP Phone is that you wanna conserve your battery. Not a problem on a home console.

[JayVe]

It is more expensive on your hardware - you basically have to do extra work for every single thing you do. However, the Wii is so weak compared to just-released hardware that the strain will be easily overcome.
Also, the Wii 2 wouldn't have to 'emulate' the Wii. In the same way you can run an old PC game on newer, more-powerful hardware, and increase the resolution... a Wii Plus could simply be a faster version of the Wii, able to run original Wii games at a higher resolution.

[Chris_D]

I'm pretty confident that's all it will be. That model has worked very well for Nintendo this gen.

[TheFlyingOrc]

I'm pretty confident that's all it will be. That model has worked very well for Nintendo this gen.

I'm not convinced - mostly because, while still doing well, Nintendo has lost momentum, and they know it. An HD upgrade to the Wii won't really get them very far - but something as "different" as the Wii was when it came out could really, really move some hardware.

I could see it possibly going that route, but I suspect Nintendo has something much bigger in store.

[Dorkandproudofit]

I'm not convinced - mostly because, while still doing well, Nintendo has lost momentum, and they know it. An HD upgrade to the Wii won't really get them very far - but something as "different" as the Wii was when it came out could really, really move some hardware.

I could see it possibly going that route, but I suspect Nintendo has something much bigger in store.

Maybe they should go back to the days when they actually made good games on a regular basis instead of every five years. :p

[Dukefrukem]

whoops (http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2011/09/13/nintendo-shares-fall.aspx)

[TheFlyingOrc]

whoops (http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2011/09/13/nintendo-shares-fall.aspx)

You don't really understand how business works, do you?

[CES]

How about the fact that Nintendo shares are up by 2 over the last month on the pink sheets? (and FWIW, the pink sheets are some of the most iffy trade lists around.) They took a whack at the start of August but they're still only just below EA in share price. Don't get me wrong, now is the absolute wrong time to invest in Nintendo as they've seen share prices cut in half in the last year which could be down to market saturation with no viable new product.

The article is useless (5% drop on which market? 5% drop to what price, exactly?) and the people who take it for gospel are worse than useless, they're idiots.

Edit: FWB is similar in pattern (1 year drop by 50%) but interestingly it's at 115.00 versus a 52 week low of 98.54 so keep calm, it's not the end of days for one of the three Console Titans.

[Wilkz07]

no panic, no panic. should look at the drop in sales as 'everyone who wanted a wii, has a wii'. Looking forward to keeping the first gen one i have and preordering a wii-u when its ready. I have a 3ds, early adopter and just got one for my wife. Nintendo will be around for awhile. (also plan to buy the slide pad add-on too.)

[Narradisall]

Meh, they at the end of a console cycle and have another one lined up. (as predicted).

I wouldn't worry for Nintendo unless the next console bombs terribly.

[Mr. Murphy]

Look here, you can't become a bloody fiscal hermit crab every time the market undergoes a self-correction. Nintendo's market has nowhere to go but up.

[Handmade.Mercury]

I feel like Nintendo's got an iron grip on the handheld market, and I also feel like they've got one of the strongest, most recognizable brand names.

This is coming from someone who doesn't follow gaming news/culture all that much, though.

[Narradisall]

Yeah but Nintendo are the CoD of the hardware market, for good, and bad.

[Mr. Murphy]

I feel like Nintendo's got an iron grip on the handheld market, and I also feel like they've got one of the strongest, most recognizable brand names.

This is coming from someone who doesn't follow gaming news/culture all that much, though.

From what I'm seeing in the financial markets, the reason Nintendo's profit margin has dropped this year is because the handheld market has moved away from expensive handhelds/games to mobile phones and cheap apps. Nintendo was confident that they could continue selling 40$ DS titles, but their audience has moved on to 1$, 3$ and 5$ offerings on their iPhones.

I think this next year (2012) is a very important and shaky year for Nintendo. If the WiiU has the success of the GameCube or the 3DS instead of the Wii or DS, it's going to be difficult for them to recover their standing.

[Shjinta]

I forgot I even had a Wii.. he was behind my TV stand lol. My 3DS i use when I have to take my father to the Hospital. Other than that, No use. Nintendo needs games. I feel no reason to use my Wii.. no good games. Even the ones that are fun, are dead due to the horrible Motion controls.

Maybe the new Wii will change things. I highly doubt it, When it does launch Microsoft and Sony will show off their next consoles which should be far more advanced than what the Wii-U is.

[Mr. Murphy]

I forgot I even had a Wii.. he was behind my TV stand lol. My 3DS i use when I have to take my father to the Hospital. Other than that, No use. Nintendo needs games. I feel no reason to use my Wii.. no good games. Even the ones that are fun, are dead due to the horrible Motion controls.

Maybe the new Wii will change things. I highly doubt it, When it does launch Microsoft and Sony will show off their next consoles which should be far more advanced than what the Wii-U is.

Whether you still play it or not is kindof irrelevent to Nintendo. They aren't trying to get you to buy any first party Wii games anymore, so they could care less if you still use it. From the gamer standpoint the Wii was a bit of a step in the wrong direction, but from a business standpoint the Wii has been nothing but a huge financial success for Nintendo. They need the WiiU to sell like that.

[JayVe]

Nobody expects the WiiU to sell like the Wii. It won't. Plain and simple. It won't mean it is a failure either.

[MagGnome]

If the Wii U sells like the 3DS, then Nintendo is in for rocky times ahead.

[Narradisall]

I know so many people will Wii buyers guilt that won't be buying Wii's.

I don't foresee Nintendo's downfall, but I really think they needed to follow up the Wii with something different and a STRONG library of games.

[JayVe]

Agreed.

Each generation there is a large section of the population that buys a system for only 1 or 2 games. I've been to people's houses where they have a PS2 and only Grand Theft Auto games. This generation, the Wii takes the cake for consumers that buy the system and few games.

Edit: Okay. I'm totally wrong.

It looks like the Wii's software tie ratio is much higher than I suspected (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Software_tie_ratio)... even surpassing the PS3's attach rate.

http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20080514180630/vgsales/images/c/ce/Estimated_attach_rate.gif

More people buy Wii games than I ever expected...

[CES]

The Wii, like the PS2 before it gets a lot of cheap shovelware and knockoffs that people like buying for their young kids. It's not like a 7 year old wants to play a 15 hour long game with mechanics that take two levels to introduce but the whining of said kid for the game is the sound of money for the shovelware developers.

[Narradisall]

Thing is, everyone I know who isn't normally a gamer that bought a Wii, bought several games and picked up loads of the cheaper shovelware and things like the wiifit etc.

Imo, previous generations you had the majority of the 'gamers' who would buy one, or maybe more systems, and buy a ton of games throughout the lifecycle.

The Wii was a bit of a freak in that tons of people bought it. Still overal compared to the smaller regular gamer crowd, the pure number of consoles shifted means it was a beast in all areas.

The catch is, I cannot see those people doing so next generation, certainly not in the numbers the wii had.

Maybe they can buck the trend and keep the buyers coming in, but unless they bring out some really interesting stuff I can see there being problems.

[JayVe]

The catch is, I cannot see those people doing so next generation, certainly not in the numbers the wii had.

Maybe they can buck the trend and keep the buyers coming in, but unless they bring out some really interesting stuff I can see there being problems.

This.

I don't foresee ANY future consoles being as popular as any of the giants of the past. Things move too fast, and people are too fragmented. Hell, lots of people are moving away from TVs and home theaters altogether, let alone the expensive boxes that play games.

I wouldn't be shocked if any home console ever reaches PS2/Wii like sales numbers again. There is a set of dimishing returns when it comes to the technology in these systems... and for most people these games are good enough.b The growing trend in supremely simple phone games is a testament that not everyone wants more powerful systems to push graphics. Hell, the success of the Wii itself shows that most people don't care about polygons.

[Dukefrukem]

ouch (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204661604577184152088351874.html?K EYWORDS=nintendo). looks like i was right.

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-BR901_NINTEN_NS_20120126182406.jpg

[Zero]

ouch (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204661604577184152088351874.html?K EYWORDS=nintendo). looks like i was right.

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-BR901_NINTEN_NS_20120126182406.jpg

Duke, quit trying to make fetch happen. Fetch isn't going to happen.

[Blue]

That's so fetch.

[RandoM51]

On the one hand I want to say this is just the usual lower revenue, higher expenses you see when one generation of hardware is in decline and you're moving on towards the next.

On the other hand I think the portion of the gaming market---both home and mobile---that Nintendo is in a position to claim with the 3DS and their new home console is shrinking as we speak.

All the scaling up they did to support DS and Wii demand needs to be cut back drastically. The 3DS isn't going to do DS numbers---either in profit margin or units sold---and I find it unlikely that any of the big three will put up Wii numbers next generation, much less Nintendo.

Nintendo can do it, they just won't be able to do it without their stock taking a beating. The "if you're not growing you're dying mentality" among investors will see to that.

Is it getting to the point where Nintendo should consider getting out of hardware the generation after this? They've got a strong stable of properties, go multiplatform with that and I see no reason why they can't be making money hand over fist until the end of time.

[Krispy]

I don't know. The Nintendo brand is getting closer and closer to something like Apple these days. I think if they have to, they can make themselves that cool hardware niche that sheek geeks are all in on.

[CES]

Until the hardware side is year on year unprofitable Nintendo won't be going anywhere and even then they've admitted to keeping the Game Boy brand in reserve for when the DS line tanks. The home console market has proven to me that even with the weakest system sales of the generation (N64, Gamecube) they still somehow turn a profit which seems to fly in the face of the entire industry.

I wouldn't call doom on them just yet. Sony has been eating shit for years on profits (to the extent they're worth just under 20% of what they were in 2000) and they still look healthy. Hell, it took Sega three generations of constant fuckups to finally kill them.

[OldJadedGamer]

I guess Nintendo *can't* catch them all.

[Narradisall]

For the last time, a company can trade at a loss for YEARS before going under. Decades even.

Plus traditionally companies have net losses before launching new titles when they have higher costs on launching a new gen with the last gen fading out. Granted some companies cover the end of a gen better, but still, a 9 month dip, big woop. Call me a year after the WiiU launches, and then we'll see if Nintendo are in trouble.

[MalReynolds]

pretty sure if the WiiU fails they are done which sucks because i loved Nintendo all the way up till the Wii

[Ink Asylum]

I think it would take two resounding failures of a home console in a row to push Nintendo out of hardware. The Wii was such a huge success, and their first party games still perform so well, that they can survive one spectacular failure.

[Joshkdmw]

I'm confused, wasn't the beginning of the end when they launched their stupid handheld with two screens for babies? Our when they released their gimmick console that nobody was going to buy?

Is this a new beginning of an end? Are a defining "end" as "lull in sakes before they start printing money again?"

They persevered through the N64 and the gamecube. They're pretty tough.

[Hyperglide]

I think it would take two resounding failures of a home console in a row to push Nintendo out of hardware. The Wii was such a huge success, and their first party games still perform so well, that they can survive one spectacular failure.

True. They survived the Virtual Boy.

[Bone]

They survived the Virtual Boy just before releasing the N64... I'm also fairly sure they'll be fine. Just temporarily not as Fuck You Rich as before, until they release their next big money printer.

EDIT: Dammit, beaten to the punch.

[JayVe]

Sony is doomed! (http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/02/sony-earnings-q3-2011/)

Sales for the quarter were about $23 billion, down 17.4 percent from the same quarter last year. The consumer products and services division (HDTVs, PS3s, etc.) in particular caught a brick, with an operating loss of over a billion dollars on sales that dropped 24 percent from last year. It recorded a loss on its sale of shares in the S-LCD venture with Samsung, LCD TVs sold for prices lower than its cost reductions, and the PlayStation 3 had the killer combo of higher marketing costs and lower unit sales.

:P

[Orca]

62 million consoles shipped is pretty amazing for a third place console though. This gen has been ridiculous.

[muddi900]

It's only 31 million. Most people bought 2.

[BigJonno]

Duke, quit trying to make fetch happen. Fetch isn't going to happen.

The awesomeness of this reference needs to be highlighted. Well played.

[RandoM51]

It's only 31 million. Most people bought 2.

Using that math microsoft only sold 5 or 6 360s.

[Bone]

I know I've had 3 360s, and I consider mine pretty resilient.

[OldJadedGamer]

I've bought just as many Wii's, 360's, and PS3's this gen. My Wii was the only system that didn't break and needed repair though.

[Narradisall]

It's hard to break a couple of tin cups and a piece of string though.

[muddi900]

You flubbed that...

"The problem with the Wii is that the duct tape doesn't hold the gamecubes together!"

[Narradisall]

Shut up and go watch Aliens.