A PS4 hypothetical.

[Narradisall]

Now the next 'next-gen' is still a few years away, but having read over the usual console flamewars across the interwes recently I had an odd thought.

I have a sneaking suspicion that PS3 owners are going to get screwed by the next gen.

Say in 2010 they release the PS4. Now the PS2 still sells strong and Sony have said before they fully expect the PS3's life cycle to be some stupid lenght for technology because blu-ray etc etc (plus it lives longer than my exploding toaster that is a 360). My main concern is game releases. Now its no surprise that developers move on to the next console to push the limits/tap the new market/cause they like new toys, but being that Sonys backward compatability is sketchy at best and they may not support blu-ray in the next gen, where does this leave the PS3'ers?

I'd be mighty pissed if 2 years down the line, while a few more AAA titles and the library will be expanded then, suddenly to find it dying out and the support vanishing.

I don't intend this to start a flame war, but has anyone else wondered what will happen to the PS3 when the net gen starts (as it's likely Microsoft will release another landmine asap and Nintendo will soon duct tape 2 Wii's together) and sony has to move on?

[Johan]

I don't intend this to start a flame war

So...no fun to be had here, then? Excuse me whilst I packeth my baggeths. ;)

[Ancalagon]

PS4 is going to be two PS3's duct taped together. Amirite, amirite?

Jokes, its going to happen, it always does. They might be able to release a budget priced PS3 when the PS4 comes out, kinda like the PS2 is a budget gaming alternative today. The price of blu ray and Cell should have dropped enough by then for that to be feasible. It wont be able to hit the 360's bargain basement price though.

[Durka-Dan]

I highly doubt the PS4 will be released in 2010. Good day.

[Karak]

I see them releasing the PS3 far past 2010. Even if it continues as just a Blu-ray player. Now if those prices start lowering as well, perhaps. We shall see. Its too early to tell.

[Mike Kelehan]

Sony has said that digital distribution is the future, and I think it was Ken Kutaragi who said that he'd be surprised if it had a disc drive at all. I wouldn't go that far; I think it'll have a DVD drive at least, but both Sony and MS' next systems will surely have every game available as a download. My guess is they'll have really big, standard hard drives, and for the games are available on disc, they'll need to be installed. Because of this, there's no advantage to having Blu-ray over multiple DVDs.

[Yeti2005]

I'm not sure what % of users actually use BC but I think it's fairly important feature especially if you're launching a new console early. I think we'll see Nintendo iterate on the Wii first (HD Wii in the next 1-2 years) followed by MS and then Sony.

[fitbabits]

I expect the next PlayStation will have an optical drive, but I don't expect all games to be released on disc format. Oh, and I'm thinking 2011 for the next PlayStation.

[MagGnome]

I think that the "next gen" of consoles needs to focus on cheaper, more reliable hardware and less on the "shiny".

I also hope that the new consoles aren't coming around in two years. That would be awful.

[Johan]

I also hope that the new consoles aren't coming around in two years. That would be awful.

I think we have three at most...which, in my opinion, sucks. It's too fast, but it's probably going to happen.

[Durka-Dan]

I see optical drives all around and games still mostly being released in disc format. Do you guys really think technology and the equipment will be where it needs to be in 2-3 years to handle that kind of distribution? I mean Fallout 3 was a mess online and that was just the PC version of those who choose to get it online. I think not. Digital distribution is the future, just not in the near future.

[DoctorFinger]

I think all games for the PS4 (my estimate 2011) will get a physical release on a BR disc (not counting PSN games, etc) but I think at least the first party titles will be available as digital downloads at some point, if not at launch.

[Gorvi]

The PS4 will launch whenever the next XBOX does. That Fall will be awesome, as both will come out guns blazing.

[Johan]

The PS4 will launch whenever the next XBOX does. That Fall will be awesome, as both will come out guns blazing.

I wonder if this will actually happen. I mean, it takes a helluva lot of time, engineering, and the like to actually get the things up and ready; can one company respond quickly enough to the other to both release at the same time? Will they both just happen to be at the same point in the hardware development cycle? Will one rush to market to catch the other one?

I don't actually think they'll release at the same time. I'd be surprised if they do. I know one thing is FOR SURE; I will NOT be buying hardware in the first six months or more from any of them. I want to see how the hardware works from all the early-adopter-beta-testers, first.

[Karak]

I wonder if this will actually happen. I mean, it takes a helluva lot of time, engineering, and the like to actually get the things up and ready; can one company respond quickly enough to the other to both release at the same time? Will they both just happen to be at the same point in the hardware development cycle? Will one rush to market to catch the other one?

I don't actually think they'll release at the same time. I'd be surprised if they do.

Ya its too much esp to say if it will or won't. Who knows? No one.
I will say this.
For the cost of the 360 and PS3 if they come out in 2010 I will not have a problem. I have received my 399 from my 360 many times over. Especially if I compare it to say my computer upgrades and so on. If they keep squeaking awesome games out till 2012 I would also be happy. Either way.

[carnage11]

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/images/conan_in_the_year_2000.png

In the year two thousand........
I think that Duke Nukem Forever will finally be released on the PS5 in 2020. Everyone will be disappointed.

In the year two thousand........
I don't expect the next gen to start until 2012. I mean there are big time games that are scheduled for 2010, I don't see them pushing a new console only a year later. There's still some life left in these fuckers dammit!

In the year two thousand........
If they start digital distro, then they need to come up with something other than HDDs or at least REALLY big HDDs. Especially when you're talking putting Blu ray sized games on the HDD. We need terabytes man! Lots of them!

[Schnoogs]

It will have one cell per pixel

[Wraith]

There's really no reason to expect that the PS4 won't have a Blu-ray or Blu-ray-compatible drive. Q4 2011 (3 years from now, 5 years after PS3 launch, 6 after 360) is far too soon for the whole world to go digital distribution only, and possibly too soon for Blu-ray to be supplanted as the high-def video/high storage capacity optical disc of choice. If anything, we might see something like Blu-ray2 with double/triple the storage capacity.
Backwards compatibility could be a bit iffier. But most of the technology that made the PS3 so expensive initially (Blu-ray, in particular) will be much, much cheaper by then. Hopefully the PS4 launches at a more competitive price so that there's less incentive for Sony to start hacking off functionality in order to drop the price.
Could the PS3 die an early death, more along the lines of the Xbox and GameCube, rather than having a long tail like the PS2? Maybe it won't have the power of the PS2 in its old age, but I think it'll fare far better than the Xbox/GC, as it isn't so far behind the pack, and the Wii isn't exactly competing for the same market anymore (well, it is and it isn't). I don't really take Sony's "10 year lifespan" business seriously. No one's going to be interested in the PS3 as a current platform in 2015, 2016. At least not in major markets (JP, NA, EU, AU). But it could still have a solid year of titles after the PS4 hits, or more if it's lucky.
I guess some of it depends on when Sony launches. My guess is that Microsoft and Sony launch in 2011. Sony could probably wait until 2012, but they don't want Microsoft to have a year's head start on them again, and I don't see MS waiting until 2012 (7 years after 360 launch). PS3 has a bit shorter total lifespan, but both 360 and PS3 do reasonably well after launch. Nintendo, who knows... It'll be interesting to see if Wii sales start dropping off in 2010, or if it's still going strong. I guess the question is how long they can keep riding the Wii wave. They've got the money to release a new console whenever they please, but when will the market be ready to buy? Will we see their huge casual/non-gamer base buy their next console as well?


ok, enough playing armchair analyst for today...

[Ancalagon]

Even more interesting actually, is whether it has a dedicated GPU. Larrabee comes out next year (doesnt it?), and with the Cell being what it is, its possible that the PS4 will be a dual CPU solution, but massively parallel.

As for digital distribution - small games are already being distributed digitally, next logical step is full games, but I dont think that this means the end of physical distribution. I think the next gen will see both coexist.

Late 2011 or 2012 would be my guess for a launch date.

[Schnoogs]

The tried to use the Cells as a GPU this generation so I wouldn't put it past them to try again.

[Dukefrukem]

It will have a Blu-ray player. There's no doubt in my mind.

[Schnoogs]

It will have a Blu-ray player. There's no doubt in my mind.

Green-Ray actually

[EternalGamer]

Whichever company provides:

1) An Online Interface as good or better than Xbox Live


2) A big harddrive with every single game title available for digital download

will be the one that gets my money next time. I think this is my last generation of buying every system on the market.

[Gorvi]

I wonder if this will actually happen. I mean, it takes a helluva lot of time, engineering, and the like to actually get the things up and ready; can one company respond quickly enough to the other to both release at the same time? Will they both just happen to be at the same point in the hardware development cycle? Will one rush to market to catch the other one?

I don't actually think they'll release at the same time. I'd be surprised if they do. I know one thing is FOR SURE; I will NOT be buying hardware in the first six months or more from any of them. I want to see how the hardware works from all the early-adopter-beta-testers, first.
I think they will. Really, both have seen now what kind of advantage that 1 year head start gave Microsoft, I don't think either of them are going to allow the other to have that again. If they're smart, anyway.

[Purple Santa]

Ya its too much esp to say if it will or won't. Who knows? No one.
I will say this.
For the cost of the 360 and PS3 if they come out in 2010 I will not have a problem. I have received my 399 from my 360 many times over. Especially if I compare it to say my computer upgrades and so on. If they keep squeaking awesome games out till 2012 I would also be happy. Either way.

I'm of this opinion. I bought my consoles, all three, and by the time the next gen rolls around i'll be ready for them. Whether the year be 2010 (I doubt this) or the next year...the awaiting for the next gen and what happens and how I feel about it is the same for me with previous console generations. I will buy them, and keep my old ones just in case I need to play games on them. So at any one time I will have 6 consoles to a tv. Not a huge deal to me. I buy them knowing they have a limited playing life span. Buy em, enjoy em...then NEXT...

[Johan]

I think they will. Really, both have seen now what kind of advantage that 1 year head start gave Microsoft, I don't think either of them are going to allow the other to have that again. If they're smart, anyway.

I agree with you that they see the advantage of being first, but barring some kind of internal espionage that allows them to see the progress of their competitor, I just don't know how they could parallel each other in the hardware development process. It's inherently tricky and has a number of stumbling blocks/pratfalls along the way that can hold things up substantially. I just don't know that, for example, an announcement that "six months from [insert date] [insert hardware company] will release its next console" will be enough lead-in to allow the competitor to match that, unless they're already on the same timetable. It's just extremely iffy to me. But, who knows?

[EternalGamer]

I agree with you that they see the advantage of being first, but barring some kind of internal espionage that allows them to see the progress of their competitor, I just don't know how they could parallel each other in the hardware development process. It's inherently tricky and has a number of stumbling blocks/pratfalls along the way that can hold things up substantially. I just don't know that, for example, an announcement that "six months from [insert date] [insert hardware company] will release its next console" will be enough lead-in to allow the competitor to match that, unless they're already on the same timetable. It's just extremely iffy to me. But, who knows?

Oh, it won't be enough time for them to develop a reliable and well designed piece of hardware, but why in the world would that stop them? Sega just decided to start throwing extra graphics cards in MONTHS before the Saturn launched. And MS, well, we all know how we ended up getting all these Red Rings of Death: it was because MS put more emphasis on getting the product to market quicker rather than thoroughly testing it and making it reliable. The PS3 didn't have their controller mess sorted out (which is why we got Six Axis then Dual Shock) or the online Network figured out (which is why they are still playing catch up a year later). And the Wii is going to finally introduce a controller add on next Spring that finally makes the system do what it was SUPPOSED to do the day it came out.

Who says companies wait until their products are actually ready to ship them?

[Mr.Green]

I doubt we'll see the next Xbox/PS before 2012. They both lost way too much on the hardware and developing games costs way too much to force developers to start from scratch every 2 games.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo come up with a new toy sooner than later though. Hardware is where they make their money this generation.

[TheFlyingOrc]

The PS4 will launch whenever the next XBOX does. That Fall will be awesome, as both will come out guns blazing.

This has never happened. You simply don't have the hardware specs on paper early enough to make your best games out of the gate.

edit: If they try to improve on visuals significantly, the price will go up significantly as well. Diminishing returns of graphics are getting worse and worse as time goes on.

[EternalGamer]

I doubt we'll see the next Xbox/PS before 2012. They both lost way too much on the hardware and developing games costs way too much to force developers to start from scratch every 2 games.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo come up with a new toy sooner than later though. Hardware is where they make their money this generation.

The interesting thing about Nintendo in this situition is, as much as I rag on the Wii, it has made them money hand over fist. They are now the juggernaught, strangely enough. If they were to put that money back into R&D and come up with a system next time that was technologically sophisticated and superior I can't see how they would go wrong. They would continue selling on their established name brand and the product would attract developers and gamers that actually wanted more advanced technology. But they need to radically change their approach to Online because that is going to be essential in the future. If they don't they will appeal to the general audience but alienate the developers and gamers again.

[TheFlyingOrc]

The interesting thing about Nintendo in this situition is, as much as I rag on the Wii, it has made them money hand over fist. They are now the juggernaught, strangely enough. If they were to put that money back into R&D and come up with a system next time that was technologically sophisticated and superior I can't see how they would go wrong. They would continue selling on their established name brand and the product would attract developers and gamers that actually wanted more advanced technology. But they need to radically change their approach to Online because that is going to be essential in the future. If they don't they will appeal to the general audience but alienate the developers and gamers again.

I think Nintendo is actually in a dangerous place if they can't significantly innovate for their next generation machine - and I don't know if they can.

[Cyndair]

This has never happened. You simply don't have the hardware specs on paper early enough to make your best games out of the gate.

edit: If they try to improve on visuals significantly, the price will go up significantly as well. Diminishing returns of graphics are getting worse and worse as time goes on.

Which is why I think we may see less of an emphasis on graphics for Xbox3 and PS4. I could see them making the machines just marginally more powerful graphically and instead focus on some innovative hardware mechanic / controller. (The Wii strategy, if you will)

[Telefrog]

But they need to radically change their approach to Online because that is going to be essential in the future. If they don't they will appeal to the general audience but alienate the developers and gamers again.

Psst... Nintendo doesn't care about "core" gamers or other developers.

[Narradisall]

Ok, I just threw up the 2010 date as a figure. I don't expect them to release then, probably should have put 2012 or something (whats the turn around these days, 5-6 years between releases?).

I fully expect the PS3 to run alongside same as the PS2 does now. I do recall reading an article about Sony considering the PS4 not having blu-ray though, I'll have to check round when I'm not supposed to be getting ready to see the new Bond film.

I would like to see them not screw PS3 owners in the process though....

PS: Jesus Johan, do you ever work? :)

[DoctorFinger]

The interesting thing about Nintendo in this situition is, as much as I rag on the Wii, it has made them money hand over fist. They are now the juggernaught, strangely enough. If they were to put that money back into R&D and come up with a system next time that was technologically sophisticated and superior I can't see how they would go wrong. They would continue selling on their established name brand and the product would attract developers and gamers that actually wanted more advanced technology. But they need to radically change their approach to Online because that is going to be essential in the future. If they don't they will appeal to the general audience but alienate the developers and gamers again.When was the last time they really did that, though? They came up with some innovative control schemes with the DS and Wii, but for they most part they were done with off the shelf tech.

But you're right. If Nintendo had even a competent online system, and made at least a token effort to up the graphical horsepower it could be great. But for some reason I don't think it would be as successful as the Wii.

[MagGnome]

I think we have three at most...which, in my opinion, sucks. It's too fast, but it's probably going to happen.

I feel like I've barely scratched the surface of this console generation. Maybe I'll feel differently in 2011, but I doubt it.

It doesn't help that I spent $500+ on my Xbox 360, so I'm nowhere near getting my money's worth out of it. I've debated picking up a PS3 as I really want some of the exclusives, but I cannot justify spending that kind of cash on another system.

[carnage11]

Green-Ray actually

That would actually be a step backwards. Now maybe an Indigo Ray drive or possibly a Violet Ray drive would be kick ass. Maybe they can figure out an ultra-violet ray drive. GAMMA RAY! OMGZ! lol


edit: I just wanna say, if the next gen isn't virtual reality, then I quit video games.

[jeffbax]

PS4 won't be in 2010 thats for damn sure, 2011 at the earliest for Xbox 3 and PS4.

Similarly, they will both have blu-ray, and both probably have great BC because it makes little sense for them to have both invested in their architectures and then throw it away. PS4 will be Cell based and Xbox 3 will be PowerPC Based like the 360 as well.

[Johan]

PS: Jesus Johan, do you ever work? :)

You'll notice that my posts during the day will generally trend from around 11-ish to around 1-ish. I have no students during that time, and if my grading and planning are up to date (I'm teaching courses I have taught for eight years, so I hope I know how to by now), then I'm not terribly stressed usually. The hardest times are when I've assigned research papers, which are a real bear to grade. They consume my days, nights, and kilowatts of energy by candlelight! ;)

Yes, I work. A lot. In fact, I recently won a teacher of the year award from a rather gigantic international business, not to toot my own horn too much! :)

/thread derail. Sorry.

[Variable Gear]

I feel like I've barely scratched the surface of this console generation. Maybe I'll feel differently in 2011, but I doubt it.
I feel like this console generation wasn't necessary.

[fitbabits]

I feel like this console generation wasn't necessary.
I would agree to some extent. The PS3 was needed, but the Xbox could (and should?) have stuck around for another few years.

[Yeti2005]

I feel like this console generation wasn't necessary.

You probably don't own a HDTV then because the older games look noticeably inferior when you compare them to today's games.

[Variable Gear]

I would agree to some extent. The PS3 was needed, but the Xbox could (and should?) have stuck around for another few years.
The only one I view as necessary is the Wii. It's tough to completely re-brand an already-existing console, and that's the alternative Nintendo had before them. Looking back, it's very easy to make the comment, but Nintendo made the right choice. It was much easier for Nintendo to introduce their motion-sensitive controller as a pack-in with a brand-new piece of hardware than it was for them to educate the global GC audience.

I'm almost in close agreement with you in regards to the PS3 being necessary. Sony needed to standardize the HDD and internet capability of the PS2, but I get hung up on Blu-Ray. Sony hasn't really done anything with Blu-Ray that's made it a necessary piece of the PS3 hardware spec. Still, even with that concern, I'm leaning in your direction.

You better catch me if I fall. :)
You probably don't own a HDTV then because the older games look noticeably inferior when you compare them to today's games.
No, I don't. And, for the last time, I don't really care about graphics. I care about the general art style, and if it is consistent throughout the entire experience, but I couldn't care less about comparing one generation to another. Yes, progression is important, in all areas of game design, but I tire of the constant push for more and more uncanny valleys. We need more peaks, dammit.

[Yeti2005]

No, I don't. And, for the last time, I don't really care about graphics. I care about the general art style, and if it is consistent throughout the entire experience, but I couldn't care less about comparing one generation to another. Yes, progression is important, in all areas of game design, but I tire of the constant push for more and more uncanny valleys. We need more peaks, dammit.

Even if you don't care about graphics the increased processing power allows games to have better AI and physics. I doubt the last gen could have pulled off the Radiant AI of Fallout or Oblivion or the Director AI of Left 4 Dead.

[Variable Gear]

Even if you don't care about graphics the increased processing power allows games to have better AI and physics. I doubt the last gen could have pulled off the Radiant AI of Fallout or Oblivion or the Director AI of Left 4 Dead.
AI? Did you just say AI in Oblivion? I'm outta' here. That was some fucking garbage AI.

[Purple Santa]

I've debated picking up a PS3 as I really want some of the exclusives, but I cannot justify spending that kind of cash on another system.
We did it for Jay/Fits, so we can do one for you. Donate to the "Get Mag a PS3 fund". I'll have Ms. Claus work on this between the scarf collections she is working on...



Yes, I work. A lot. In fact, I recently won a teacher of the year award from a rather gigantic international business, not to toot my own horn too much! :)

/thread derail. Sorry.
Congrats on that!

/helping Johan derail thread again. Sorry :o