[Rumor] Kinect Costs $150 To Manufacture

[DoctorFinger]

http://www.colonyofgamers.com/images/newsimages/kinect1.jpg

Microsoft answered a lot of questions at E3 about their motion controller. We got a name - Kinect - a date - November 4 - and a look at several games. What we didn't get was a price, which understandably worries a lot of gamers. However if a source for Develop (http://www.develop-online.net/news/35198/Source-pins-Kinect-manufacturing-costs-to-150) is right, the camera system won't be cheap. Microsoft is paying around $150 in total manufacturing costs for each Kinect unit, Develop understands.

A highly-positioned, trusted source had given Develop the “$150 manufacturing cost” figure on the condition of anonymity, adding that the expenses of Kinect is a topic of concern for his company.

The news comes in the wake of rumours suggesting an internal struggle at Microsoft on the retail price of Kinect, a kit once touted to sell at £50 [ed.- about $75), but now thought will cost over twice the price.The $150 price tag also happens to be what most major retailers are listing in their pre-order pages for Kinect.

Microsoft could choose to sell the hardware at a loss to get it into the hands of consumers, but how much of a hit will they be willing to take? Develop's story also fits with rumors circulating for the past year that the system was proving to be more expensive than Microsoft originally hoped it would be.

Source - Develop (http://www.develop-online.net/news/35198/Source-pins-Kinect-manufacturing-costs-to-150).

Update: The official Microsoft store has the Kinect available for pre-order (http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081) at $150. Source - Game|Life (http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/06/kinect-price)

[Dukefrukem]

It's coming November 4th? I could have sworn it said 2011.

Edit: I think that was for Forza and SW.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Why does a camera cost $250?

[Widgetcraft]

Why does a camera cost $250?

$150, and it's two cameras, a microphone, some kind of motorized base (I still don't understand this part), plus a processor to deal with the input before it gets passed on to the 360.

[DoctorFinger]

There are motors which allow the unit to pan and tilt to follow the action. I have to find the article, but they took a processor out of the unit about 6 months back to make it easier & cheaper to make. As a result more of the processing load goes on the system resources.

[Mike Kelehan]

$150, and it's two cameras, a microphone, some kind of motorized base (I still don't understand this part), plus a processor to deal with the input before it gets passed on to the 360.

The motorized base moves the camera to keep the players in frame. So, you don't need to get up and adjust it to make sure it's in juuuuust the right spot. Plus, if you move around the room, it'll follow you. I think it's a great idea. It means that the whole room is the sweet spot.

That shouldn't add a ton of money to the cost, though. $150 is a bit much for what it does, hardware-wise.

[Iron Past]

There are motors which allow the unit to pan and tilt to follow the action. I have to find the article, but they took a processor out of the unit about 6 months back to make it easier & cheaper to make. As a result more of the processing load goes on the system resources.

But didn't it get moved back? I thought that was one of the reasons it's becoming more expensive. At any rate, the question remains, how bad does MS want it? They can certainly take a loss, it's nothing new with platforms and they're quite a big company.

[fitbabits]

Not at all unusual for a company to take a loss on hardware and make up the difference in software prices. Although if it costs $150 to manufacture and they sell it for $150, the losses would be negligible for a company the size of Microsoft.

[RandoM51]

Hard to do much with a manufacturing cost without knowing the rest of the balance sheet. Two cameras, a mic, motorized joint, casing, cabling, etc., $150 manufacturing cost doesn't sound unusual for initial hardware in a case like that.

[TheFlyingOrc]

Not at all unusual for a company to take a loss on hardware and make up the difference in software prices. Although if it costs $150 to manufacture and they sell it for $150, the losses would be negligible for a company the size of Microsoft.

Well, R & D and shipping, but you're right, Microsoft will probably survive.

[Iron Past]

Well, R & D and shipping, but you're right, Microsoft will probably survive.

I imagine this is part of the reason they have a couple guaranteed big money-makers this fall. They've also had a pretty strong first-party line-up thus far and have Gears 3 around a year from now. The profits from Halo, Fable and Gears will be more than enough to make up any loss.

[nabokovfan87]

Why does a camera cost $250?

Probably the auto tracking and quality of the lenses, the engineering hours to develop the software to do what it does (connecting to xbox and so forth, driver type stuff, not games), and designing the bezel and so forth, mounting system, the name research. All of that is calculating into the "cost" of an item.

This is more likely just about the price of the actual hardware being used and the processes, or it could be the above example, explaining why it is so high.

[Darkmatter]

Sorry but I can't see myself ever shelling out that kind of cash for something like this.

Personally, I wouldn't be at all suprised if these Wii bandwagoners flop.

[RandoM51]

Personally, I wouldn't be at all suprised if these Wii bandwagoners flop.

If you use the Wii as your success/failure test every other motion control scheme is pretty much doomed. Simply stated, the Wii has it out of the box and has already sold more consoles than the other two.

With that acknowledged---which I think most reasonable people who aren't also a spokesperson for Sony or Microsoft would do---you should probably start defining a more realistic success/failure cut off point before deciding anything is a flop.

If you could entirely separate motion control expenses I'd say that Microsoft/Sony have succeeded with their motion control efforts this generation if those expenses aren't in the red when the next generation starts. More simply put, if they can add the motion control bullet point to their platform without a net loss by the end of the generation then they have succeeded.

[MosBen]

Yeah, I think of Kinect as a stepping stone to the next generation, where something like this will be packaged with the system. They'll have worked out the technology kinks and figured out how to get better performance at lower cost.

In the mean time, I don't think $150 is crazy for something like this, assuming there are good games for it. Many many people use their Wiis as Wii Sports machine and get lots of enjoyment out of that. There really only needs to be one killer app that people can play at someone else's house and fall in love with in order for Kinect to take off a bit.

Also keep in mind that production costs are likely to be reduced as they ramp up their production. Once they've made their production process more efficient and higher volume they'll have some room to cut the price and/or make some profit.

As for selling hardware at a loss, it depends on whether you think of Kinect as an accessory or a platform. Console makers frequently sell their machines for a loss, but accessories (controllers, charge kits, wireless adapters, etc) are usually huge profit machines.

[Jason]

Sorry but I can't see myself ever shelling out that kind of cash for something like this.

Personally, I wouldn't be at all suprised if these Wii bandwagoners flop.

I wouldn't be surprised either, but I think Kinect will end up being a huge success for Microsoft. If not as a gaming device, then as a major part of Windows in the future. An example could be Heavy Rain. And I hate how Sony has "nudged" the developer into adding Move into it instead of more DLC. The parts where the FBI agent dons his glasses and moves the screens/data around is exactly how Kinect should work as a part of Windows or games that have management screens. I think a Kinect version would be a ton better than a Move version just based off that little bit of the game.

[MagGnome]

There are motors which allow the unit to pan and tilt to follow the action. I have to find the article, but they took a processor out of the unit about 6 months back to make it easier & cheaper to make. As a result more of the processing load goes on the system resources.

Is that why it apparently only supports two players now?


In the mean time, I don't think $150 is crazy for something like this, assuming there are good games for it. Many many people use their Wiis as Wii Sports machine and get lots of enjoyment out of that. There really only needs to be one killer app that people can play at someone else's house and fall in love with in order for Kinect to take off a bit.

Keep in mind that these people will have to buy a 360 as well.

[DoctorFinger]

Is that why it apparently only supports two players now?
Did they ever officially indicate in the past that it supports more than 2 players on 1 unit?

[BigJonno]

Did they ever officially indicate in the past that it supports more than 2 players on 1 unit?

I'm pretty sure they'd said it was four.

[MagGnome]

Did they ever officially indicate in the past that it supports more than 2 players on 1 unit?

A lot of the promo videos and images showed more than two people participating, and I'm pretty sure that most people believed it would support four individuals at least. I for one was quite surprised to learn that this may not be the case.

[LongStepMantis]

I'm one of those rare specimens who still doesn't have a 360.
So it's $150 for a Kinect + the price of a new 360 (cheapest I found was an arcade unit for $150). Yay?

I already have a Wii though, so there's no way I would bother with this thing.

[Farsight]

So it's $150 for a Kinect + the price of a new 360 (cheapest I found was an arcade unit for $150). Yay?

The Wii was $250. A Kinect-Xbox at $300 isn't out of the price range of Wii owners.

Marketing Kinect to the casual Wii market makes even more sense when you factor a high cost to manufacture. Most of those people will be buying the 360+Kinect pack, where MS can make up some of the loss on the now cheaper-to-produce 360.

There are two big categories of Wii owner that should be easy to market to: People who bought the Wii because it was 'cool', and people who bought the Wii but became disillusioned with it. Decent marketing should have no problem conveying that Kinect is both 'the next big thing' and a major upgrade - the lack of a controller impresses people on its own.

Kinect will also have an easy time winning developer support (as will Move) - most big game developers prefer to work on the best hardware available, especially when the alternative (Wii) is seen as financially non-viable.

MS already won the battle for the hardcore gamer - this is about winning over everyone else - losing a couple bucks per Kinect is a small price to pay.

[Exodus]

150$ doesn't bother me if the games are good. This compared to say Rock Band 3's line up and my willingness to purchase the instruments for it...it'd be ridiculous of me to say this doesn't sound reasonable.

[LongStepMantis]

The Wii was $250. A Kinect-Xbox at $300 isn't out of the price range of Wii owners.

Marketing Kinect to the casual Wii market makes even more sense when you factor a high cost to manufacture. Most of those people will be buying the 360+Kinect pack, where MS can make up some of the loss on the now cheaper-to-produce 360.

There are two big categories of Wii owner that should be easy to market to: People who bought the Wii because it was 'cool', and people who bought the Wii but became disillusioned with it. Decent marketing should have no problem conveying that Kinect is both 'the next big thing' and a major upgrade - the lack of a controller impresses people on its own.

Kinect will also have an easy time winning developer support (as will Move) - most big game developers prefer to work on the best hardware available, especially when the alternative (Wii) is seen as financially non-viable.

MS already won the battle for the hardcore gamer - this is about winning over everyone else - losing a couple bucks per Kinect is a small price to pay.

Maybe I'm just looking at this from a certain perspective here, but I don't see many Wii owners getting this. They already have motion controls, on a platform they are accustomed to. The only people I see this targeting are existing 360 owners...who would also probably have Wiis by now if motion control was what they wanted. Most of the 360 owners I know, personally, don't care about motion controls at all on any system.

I don't think the Kinect or the Move have a prayer's chance in hell of catching on at a scale even remotely comparable to the Wii. My opinion, of course.

[Karak]

Sorry but I can't see myself ever shelling out that kind of cash for something like this.

Personally, I wouldn't be at all suprised if these Wii bandwagoners flop.

Normally I wouldn't either but presales are through the roof man.
Compared to Wii, no, because its an addon. But when this sucker is tapping the best sellers list and places are stopping from taking more pre-orders. Its doing pretty well.

Now all they need is the games hahahahaha.

[OldJadedGamer]

Even *if* this is true. What it cost to make and what it is sold for are two different things.

Case in point: 360 and PS3 at launch.

[Karak]

There are motors which allow the unit to pan and tilt to follow the action. I have to find the article, but they took a processor out of the unit about 6 months back to make it easier & cheaper to make. As a result more of the processing load goes on the system resources.

And it was placed back in. At least thats what the hardware supplier is stating. And that it also sees more than 2 people. It is up to MS and the load they want to take onto the 360 after the chip runs its first pass. That's according to PrimeSense.

[RandoM51]

When was the last time anybody actually took one of these "this is what it costs to manufacture" figures and then walked us through the rest of the costs to actually make a point? Never.

Unless you've got a magic equation you can plug this number into to come up with a useful-to-consumer number or you're responsible for the bottomline of the division in question(which means you already have this number), I don't see how you can make any real use of it.

In a different industry you might be able to use a figure like this to come up with eventual consumer pricing. Not in this industry, though. :)

[Wilkz07]

150 is out of my price range considering the sub-par games that are out at launch.

[Orca]

It looks like Microsoft might actually be stupid enough to release it at $150. (http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081)

[Exodus]

It looks like Microsoft might actually be stupid enough to release it at $150. (http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081)

I wouldn't call it stupid if it's already selling like hot cakes.

[Orca]

I wouldn't call it stupid if it's already selling like hot cakes.

It's stupid when it's targeted at the mainstream casual consumer, as it clearly is. $150 is a steep price of entry for what's basically a new controller. $100 would be a lot more palatable to the impulse buy that they need to draw in, and even that is still on the high side.

[Exodus]

It's stupid when it's targeted at the mainstream casual consumer, as it clearly is. $150 is a steep price of entry for what's basically a new controller. $100 would be a lot more palatable to the impulse buy that they need to draw in, and even that is still on the high side.

I look at the games that the kinect has going for it and their demographic and all I see are dollar signs for microsoft and sony. They are finally going to move in on nintendo's gold mine.

[Orca]

I look at the games that the kinect has going for it and their demographic and all I see are dollar signs for microsoft and sony. They are finally going to move in on nintendo's gold mine.

You really think a casual or non-gamer is going to drop $150 for Kinect, plus the $199 for a 360 (assuming they get the new 'arcade' slim instead of the $299 one) and another $50-60 for a game?

Can't see that happening. Not when a Wii is cheaper. The HD graphics are nice, and the online system is lightyears ahead of Nintendo's...but I don't think that really matters to someone who doesn't know anything about them.

[Farsight]

Maybe I'm just looking at this from a certain perspective here, but I don't see many Wii owners getting this. They already have motion controls, on a platform they are accustomed to.

You're assuming that the vast majority of Wii owners are still satisfied and active customers, with no interest in a new toy.

I'm more prone to thinking that a large number of those users are either bored of the Wii, or don't consider it an exclusive relationship. For casual gamers, a game console is not something to cling to and defend to the death; it's a box in the entertainment center alongside their DVD player and cable box. Kinect would just be the new shiny box.

You really think a casual or non-gamer is going to drop $150 for Kinect, plus the $199 for a 360 (assuming they get the new 'arcade' slim instead of the $299 one) and another $50-60 for a game?

You're assuming there won't be a a single package containing a 360, Kinect, and a game at a lower price point than buying all 3 separately. MS's not going to try sell this in pieces to new customers.

To me, it's waaaaaay more likely that such a pack will exist, at around $300. Considering a Kinect-enabled system could actually be sold without a gamepad included, the $250 price point might even be reachable.

Most Wii owners spent that $250 years ago. I think people here are underestimating people's ability to earn, and willingness to spend $300 on something that seems cool. People are also underestimating how cool controller-free motion detection seems to most people - it may as well be a jet pack.

[Widgetcraft]

You're assuming that the vast majority of Wii owners are still satisfied and active customers, with no interest in a new toy.

I'm more prone to thinking that a large number of those users are either bored of the Wii, or don't consider it an exclusive relationship. For casual gamers, a game console is not something to cling to and defend to the death; it's a box in the entertainment center alongside their DVD player and cable box. Kinect would just be the new shiny box.

Casual gamers don't need or want two consoles. The concept boggles their minds. Even when a console has become outdated, and you're well into a new generation, the casual gamer may very well not see a reason to upgrade.

[MosBen]

Guys, look, clearly casual gamers are the big target here, but they're not the whole market. Plenty of people have both a 360 and a Wii because they like some games on the 360 and they really liked having people over to play Wii Sports. Is that demographic alone enough for this thing to succeed? Probably not, but we shouldn't be talking about the success or failure of this thing as being solely about getting people who don't have any consoles or who only have a Wii. For some people this will be a simple $150 purchase, which Guitar Hero and Rock Band have shown isn't so out of the realm of the reasonable that it can't succeed.

You've also got to keep in mind that motion control may not be the only area of video games that these people are interested in. Sure, a casual or non-gamer may have gotten the Wii for Wii Sports, but they probably picked up another game here or there to try it out, like a Mario or Zelda or something. Maybe they never finished that game and maybe the console has been turned off for several months since the last Wii Sports party, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't buy *any* non-Kinect 360 games.

And ultimately, MS is a business. Kinect needs to at least make a good headway into paying back its investments costs, and that's it. If it brings in some new customers to MS' console, gives the company some new tech to integrate into their future products, and doesn't end up costing the company an arm and a leg to have developed, it's a win. It doesn't have to unseat the Wii. If it's selling well at $150 then that's not too high a price for them to have chosen. Those for whom that is too much will look forward to the inevitable price cut in a year or so.

[MagGnome]

You're assuming that the vast majority of Wii owners are still satisfied and active customers, with no interest in a new toy.

I'm more prone to thinking that a large number of those users are either bored of the Wii, or don't consider it an exclusive relationship. For casual gamers, a game console is not something to cling to and defend to the death; it's a box in the entertainment center alongside their DVD player and cable box. Kinect would just be the new shiny box.

You are vastly overestimating a casual gamer's desire to have a "shiny new box" in the entertainment center. If that was the case Blu Ray probably would have taken off a lot more than it did.

Casual gamers, by their very definition, don't buy a lot of gaming consoles. Most of the people who I know that own a Wii and nothing else have no interest in buying another system. They pull the Wii out at parties, playing some Mario Kart/Wii Sports, and are satisfied. They are not looking for the latest and greatest.

[Gorvi]

You are vastly overestimating a casual gamer's desire to have a "shiny new box" in the entertainment center. If that was the case Blu Ray probably would have taken off a lot more than it did.

Casual gamers, by their very definition, don't buy a lot of gaming consoles. Most of the people who I know that own a Wii and nothing else have no interest in buying another system. They pull the Wii out at parties, playing some Mario Kart/Wii Sports, and are satisfied. They are not looking for the latest and greatest.
Exactly. They have their game console that fills that purpose, getting them to buy another is going to be a hell of a lot harder than getting them to buy the first system (the Wii).

[RandoM51]

I wouldn't call it stupid if it's already selling like hot cakes.

So you're calling it stupid? A post-E3 pre-order spike is one thing, the sustained sales of the Wii are quite another.

If you look at the demographic targeted by the majority of the motion control launch titles shown at E3 by Sony and Microsoft the hardware from both is priced too high to make much of an impact.

They're not going to win Wii converts when you tack on the motion control price to the console price. At best they'll get enough of their existing customers on board to keep their motion control effort viable until they can price it competitively.

[Narradisall]

*shrug*

I'll pick it up when its cheaper and if it has decent games.

Not interested in motion controls so I'm not fussed about the price either. I don't think it seems that steep though.

[RandoM51]

Hey, looks like the customer pricing is going to be $149.99.

http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081

[BigJonno]

The videogame playing universe does not neatly divide into "hardcore gamers" (read: people who buy the games that I like) and "casual gamers" (read: your auntie who has a Wii for WiiFit.) There are millions of people who don't fall into one of those two very narrow categories. Who do you think buys all those copies of CoD and GTA and FIFA and Madden and Singstar and Guitar Hero and Final Fantasy and all the other franchises that sell millions of copies?

They will read about Kinect and Move in their non-specialist news and lifestyle media and will be wowed by novelty of motion controls. They'll invest in these new technologies because they like new, shiny gadgets and they already have 360s and PS3s hooked up to their HDTVs, but at the same time they don't have a clue about input lag, nor will they worry about exactly how many people can be supported or whether you have to be standing up, sitting down or on your head to play.

So while it's true that Move and Kinect have failed to win over the "hardcore" and it's probably true that Aunt Mildred is not going to be rushing out to replace her Wii, there are plenty of consumers who will lap this shit up.

[Grifter]

You are vastly overestimating a casual gamer's desire to have a "shiny new box" in the entertainment center. If that was the case Blu Ray probably would have taken off a lot more than it did.

Casual gamers, by their very definition, don't buy a lot of gaming consoles. Most of the people who I know that own a Wii and nothing else have no interest in buying another system. They pull the Wii out at parties, playing some Mario Kart/Wii Sports, and are satisfied. They are not looking for the latest and greatest.

Exactly. They have their game console that fills that purpose, getting them to buy another is going to be a hell of a lot harder than getting them to buy the first system (the Wii).

And you guys are vastly under estimating all the people who purchased the Wii, realized they liked playing video games more than they thought they would and are now ready for something a bit more. These may not be Halo or Gears of war players but seeing a more powerful console that now has similar controls to the only thing they know may be enough to get them to take the next step.

The fact of the matter is that the Wii paved the way for platforms like Kinect and Move to be successful. The Wii may not have converted everyone but it went a long way in convincing people that video games can be fun no matter what age you are. If MS advertises properly I think they will get quite a few people who are ready to graduate from the Wii to something a bit more powerful. (same can be said for Sony but the "me too" approach they took may hinder as much as help them)

There will also be quite a few 360 owners who aren't so narrow minded and may be looking forward to experiencing motion control based gaming along side their "hardcore" experience (Especially if they don't own a Wii.) and are intuitive enough to realize that the entirety of Kinects future cannot be summed up by it's launch line up.

[Widgetcraft]

The videogame playing universe does not neatly divide into "hardcore gamers" (read: people who buy the games that I like) and "casual gamers" (read: your auntie who has a Wii for WiiFit.) There are millions of people who don't fall into one of those two very narrow categories. Who do you think buys all those copies of CoD and GTA and FIFA and Madden and Singstar and Guitar Hero and Final Fantasy and all the other franchises that sell millions of copies?

I don't think they're going to be too enthused about AAA games like Adventure, Table Tennis and Scratching Tiger Balls. Generally, the CoD/GTA crowd hate anything that even hints of being kiddy.

They will read about Kinect and Move in their non-specialist news and lifestyle media and will be wowed by novelty of motion controls. They'll invest in these new technologies because they like new, shiny gadgets

What? No they don't. They like cell phones and MP3 players, sure, because they can show those off in public. No one is going to be packing around a Kinect. It doesn't carry any kind of social status with it.

[Gorvi]

If you want to drink the Kool Aid be my guest, we'll see when it launches. Getting someone to buy a package that is going to be at least $300 (I'd be surprised to see a Kinect/360 bundle for less) when they already spent $250 plus accessories and games for their Wii is going to be a tough sell.

Just don't take that insulting attitude that those who aren't creaming their pants over this Eye Toy 2.0 are unintuitive (?) and narrow minded. Maybe take into account that some simply don't like what it's presenting and move on.

[RandoM51]

There will also be quite a few 360 owners who aren't so narrow minded and may be looking forward to experiencing motion control based gaming along side their "hardcore" experience (Especially if they don't own a Wii.) and are intuitive enough to realize that the entirety of Kinects future cannot be summed up by it's launch line up.

So they're intuitive enough to reason that Kinect(...or Move, for that matter) may get better as time goes by, but not intuitive enough to reason that it may also get cheaper as time goes by?

That is some highly selective intuition you're positing. :)

Pricing discussions like this go nowhere without people agreeing ahead of time what defines success and what defines failure.

[Gorvi]

That is some highly selective intuition you're positing. :)
Foolish. The word you were looking for is foolish. ;)

[Dukefrukem]

No this will sell. But it will end up like the Wii and no one will use it.

[RandoM51]

No this will sell. But it will end up like the Wii and no one will use it.

I suppose the people driving Wii games to platinum status buy the games and then just throw them away?

Seems to me that people wouldn't be buying so much software if they weren't actually using it. I mean sure, some of us maintain a pretty big backlog, but get real.

You need to step up your game or GTFO. :) Arguing that it will sell but nobody will use it is a pointless argument since nobody cares if they use it or not as long as they keep buying it, at least in the context of a pricing discussion.

[BigJonno]

I don't think they're going to be too enthused about AAA games like Adventure, Table Tennis and Scratching Tiger Balls. Generally, the CoD/GTA crowd hate anything that even hints of being kiddy.

The CoD and GTA crowd have wives, girlfriends and children. There are millions of households with PS3s and Xbox 360s and people who will think that dancing around and waving their arms in front of their TV looks brilliant.

What? No they don't. They like cell phones and MP3 players, sure, because they can show those off in public. No one is going to be packing around a Kinect. It doesn't carry any kind of social status with it.

Yeah, nobody buys big TVs or surround sound systems or games consoles apart from a small group of AV/gaming buffs. The home theatre market is a tiny niche for the hardcore. Everyone else is a middle aged woman with a fifteen year old CRT and a Wii. ;)

[Grifter]

So they're intuitive enough to reason that Kinect(...or Move, for that matter) may get better as time goes by, but not intuitive enough to reason that it may also get cheaper as time goes by?

That is some highly selective intuition you're positing. :)

Pricing discussions like this go nowhere without people agreeing ahead of time what defines success and what defines failure.

Not once did I mention a time frame for purchase nor was I commenting on what I believed would be the overall success or failure of either of the technologies. I just think a lot of people commenting in this thread are not taking into account all the variables that go into deciding what entertainment devices people buy. There is a lot more that goes into someones decision when purchasing something like this than "am I a hardcore gamer?" Most video game consumers don't think like the people in this thread and most of the people in this thread don't understand that no matter what side of the argument they are for.

Yes, I also believe most "hardcore gamers" are narrow minded and unable to see passed their own opinions.

If video games were relationships most people in gaming forums would have at least one restraining order against them and quite a few would probably be locked up for making bunny soup or the equivalent.

Foolish. The word you were looking for is foolish. ;)

The only foolishness here is assuming something will fail or is no good because you are not interested in it or vise versa... and those who are unable to understand what was written do to his own preconceived notions.

[Dukefrukem]

I suppose the people driving Wii games to platinum status buy the games and then just throw them away?

Seems to me that people wouldn't be buying so much software if they weren't actually using it. I mean sure, some of us maintain a pretty big backlog, but get real.

You need to step up your game or GTFO. :) Arguing that it will sell but nobody will use it is a pointless argument since nobody cares if they use it or not as long as they keep buying it, at least in the context of a pricing discussion.

I'm just going by what I know. I have three friends (all married) who have bought the Wii, bought COD4, bought the gun that goes with the Wiimote, played the first training level, and have never picked it up again. So 100% of the people I know who have the Wii, don't play it. So yes, people bought the game and metaphorically throw them away.

[Grifter]

I'm just going by what I know. I have three friends (all married) who have bought the Wii, bought COD4, bought the gun that goes with the Wiimote, played the first training level, and have never picked it up again. So 100% of the people I know who have the Wii, don't play it. So yes, people bought the game and metaphorically throw them away.

So, you have 3 friends and are basing the future success of a technology available to millions of people on those 3 families. Brilliant.

[Gorvi]

The only foolishness here is assuming something will fail or is no good because you are not interested in it or vise versa... and those who are unable to understand what was written do to his own preconceived notions.
No, but it's foolish to buy some new tech based on the potential possible uses of it when there's nothing available for it that you're even remotely interested in. You tried to imply that those who were going to buy it right away were somehow enlightened and could see something that those other "narrow minded" individuals could not.
are intuitive enough to realize that the entirety of Kinects future cannot be summed up by it's launch line up.
While you can say all you want that there may be great games made for it in the future, show me them. If you want to get me interested don't just show me a bunch of "me too" gimmicks with little substance, show me something compelling. If you want to believe that there will be great games for Kinect coming in the future that's certainly your right to do so, but MS didn't show any great games. Hell, they barely showed games. Same for Sony, really, only they also showed Move tacked on to some regular games, but that's also a great big pile of "meh".

I'd be saying the same thing about Move if someone were trying to hype it as the next big thing. Both are add-ons to existing consoles, which have always been a risky proposition. We've had one of those out of the many we've seen in the history of gaming see success: Wii Fit.

[Dukefrukem]

So, you have 3 friends and are basing the future success of a technology available to millions of people on those 3 families. Brilliant.

Thanks for putting words in my mouth but I just go by what I see, as I said. He asked me if people buy the game and throw them away. I say fuck yes they do. Cheaper games are more easily expendable.

[RandoM51]

We've had one of those out of the many we've seen in the history of gaming see success: Wii Fit.

Probably safe to add Wii Motion+ to that list of one. :)

To figure out what Microsoft and Sony need to do to make their motion control peripherals a real success all you really need to do is look at how Nintendo has handled Wii Motion+.

So 100% of the people I know who have the Wii, don't play it.

I'm surprised nobody has hit you in the face with, "the plural of anecdote is not data." before.

[Gorvi]

Probably safe to add Wii Motion+ to that list of one. :)

To figure out what Microsoft and Sony need to do to make their motion control peripherals a real success all you really need to do is look at how Nintendo has handled Wii Motion+.
I think Wii Motion+ is a different beast entirely, though. It was packed in, at no additional cost, with a sequel to a game that was the main reason many bought the console in the first place. That, and while I'm sure it sold pretty well, it hasn't been lighting up the charts either. I wouldn't say Wii Motion+ is a failure by any means, but Wii Fit I think is a much more appropriate example. I think if Wii Motion+ sold more we'd see more games that actually used it.

[RandoM51]

I think Wii Motion+ is a different beast entirely, though. It was packed in, at no additional cost, with a sequel to a game that was the main reason many bought the console in the first place. That, and while I'm sure it sold pretty well, it hasn't been lighting up the charts either. I wouldn't say Wii Motion+ is a failure by any means, but Wii Fit I think is a much more appropriate example.

The only way in which it is a different beast is in how successfully it has been pushed as an addon peripheral. Don't you think Move or Kinect would do better if bundled with a successful game franchise at very little extra cost? ;)

Wii Fit is just nintendo's Tekki, much more successful on a larger install base and with broader appeal.

I think if Wii Motion+ sold more we'd see more games that actually used it.

You are seeing more games that actually use it, if you bother looking. Software isn't magicked up overnight with the wave of a wiimote. The bundling insures that the hardware gets seeded in advance of the software, justifying the additional development.

Look at it that way, which is more attractive to a 3rd party developer?

Method #1, If we make a game that needs the hardware, maybe somebody will buy the game and the hardware.

Method #2, If the hardware is bundled to popular first party titles at a small extra cost we don't have to worry about people buying hardware for our game, there will already be plenty of people who have it.

[Gorvi]

You are seeing more games that actually use it, if you bother looking.
Is there? Maybe I just haven't noticed.

[Dukefrukem]

I'm surprised nobody has hit you in the face with, "the plural of anecdote is not data." before.

You asked I answered. If you want me to get them to register on CoG and they can tell the stories themselves, I'll get them on here.

[RandoM51]

You asked I answered. If you want me to get them to register on CoG and they can tell the stories themselves, I'll get them on here.
You're missing the point. Those are still anecdotes, regardless of whether you say it or they say it.

When you compare your 3 family sample to the monthly sales numbers for Nintendo, which do you think is the best depiction of what is going on? The sales data from thousands of retail outlets, or your sampling of 3 families?

...and the funny part is that your point is largely irrelevant. If the people keep buying the hardware and software what they actually do with it doesn't matter. Even if all of that hardware and software was gathering dust in a closet it doesn't change the simple fact that Nintendo is posting great sales figures month after month.

[Grifter]

No, but it's foolish to buy some new tech based on the potential possible uses of it when there's nothing available for it that you're even remotely interested in. You tried to imply that those who were going to buy it right away were somehow enlightened and could see something that those other "narrow minded" individuals could not.

While you can say all you want that there may be great games made for it in the future, show me them. If you want to get me interested don't just show me a bunch of "me too" gimmicks with little substance, show me something compelling. If you want to believe that there will be great games for Kinect coming in the future that's certainly your right to do so, but MS didn't show any great games. Hell, they barely showed games. Same for Sony, really, only they also showed Move tacked on to some regular games, but that's also a great big pile of "meh".

I'd be saying the same thing about Move if someone were trying to hype it as the next big thing. Both are add-ons to existing consoles, which have always been a risky proposition. We've had one of those out of the many we've seen in the history of gaming see success: Wii Fit.

First, pretty much everything I've said can be applied to Move as well, I know this is a Kinect thread but I'm kind of lumping the two together as "motion control technology" though I do believe Kinect will be the more successful of the two.

I'm not trying to hype anything. I see things like the Tai-Chi apps and the Dance game and understand the future potential of the product. I never said if you didn't buy right away you were narrow minded but to completely dismiss it like most are doing just because it's a motion control accessory is stupid (no I'm not referring to anything you have posted). MS and I believe Sony are treating these peripherals like they would a console launch and I think we should do the same yet with a bit more apprehension due to their specialized nature. If we were to judge both the PS3 and 360 on their launch line up both would be failures. Both MS and Sony, as we all are well aware, are in this for the money and I have a hard time believing they are going to put this much effort into these technologies only to release crap. It's more logical to believe that we will get quality games from Sony and MS than otherwise. These companies are not stupid, they know their audience and they know the better their games (by their I mean games on their consoles not games actually developed and or published by them) the more loyal their customers. Just because someone doesn't like Gears of War or Halo doesn't mean they are universally bad games and the same rule needs to be applied here.

We have broken away from the usual pattern of release for the games industry and we need to be careful when using the past trends to estimate the performance of the future given these changes. If we were following the same pattern as previous console life cycles and these were "just accessories" I would totally agree with you but I think MS and Sony will make these work and I think we are going to see a lot of cool shit over the next 2-3 years that in some way is tied in with motion controls. Obviously no matter what is released there will be people who just won't enjoy it and thats cool but I believe that most people who enjoy video games will find motion control based games they like and they will find them this generation.

It goes without saying that you shouldn't pick either one of these up until you see something you personally like but the arguments being made against the technology are being based mostly on personal feelings toward motion controls in general and have nothing to do with the viable potential of the technology nor are they taking into account that there are plenty of people out there that will enjoy the technology as well as people who have no problem spending $150-$300 (based on the possible bundled price for Kinect) for something that will give them years of entertainment.

I hope that all makes sense in the context, I've been up all night and my mind is starting to get a bit foggy.

[Dukefrukem]

You're missing the point. Those are still anecdotes, regardless of whether you say it or they say it.

When you compare your 3 family sample to the monthly sales numbers for Nintendo, which do you think is the best depiction of what is going on? The sales data from thousands of retail outlets, or your sampling of 3 families?

...and the funny part is that your point is largely irrelevant. If the people keep buying the hardware and software what they actually do with it doesn't matter. Even if all of that hardware and software was gathering dust in a closet it doesn't change the simple fact that Nintendo is posting great sales figures month after month.

And THAT goes back to my original point, of why the Kinect will sell. All I did was add my own spin on it...

[rein]

So, is the next generation of console gaming going to be a battle of fitness and dance games?

[MachEnergy]

Last night, I booted up Netflix, and I realized how badly I wished I could just say "Xbox, Netflix".....but noooooooooo. I have to navigate menus like a caveman. Ugh.

I'd almost be willing to pay $150 for that alone. :D

[Grifter]

So, is the next generation of console gaming going to be a battle of fitness and dance games?

I can just imagine the headlines now:
How you can have abs like a Gamer in six easy steps"
"Gamers, Live Long, Live Healthy, Play Video Games."
"Gaming, Changing Human Evolution as we know it... For The Better?" ;)

[MosBen]

Look, it's like this: When MS launched the original Xbox, the PS2 was king, and in terms of sales, it still is. Defining the Xbox's success as beating the PS2's sales numbers is foolish because it was unattainable and no one at MS ever deluded themselves into thinking it was. On the other hand, MS got their foot into the console market, established some of their key signature franchises, got a handle on the tech needed to make a console, and forged good relationships with both a group of customers and several game developers.

With the 360, they took the experience they gained the first time around and built a console which is at the very least competitive with Sony's offering. Take a second and think about that. Sony produced the highest selling console of all time and followed it up with at best a tie with MS. That's a huge accomplishment on MS's part. Yes, there are a lot of factors that went into that, and not all of them were under MS's control. And of course, the 360 has its share of problems too.

"Success" for Kinect is not beating the Wii in sales, converting all or even a large group of Wii owners into 360/Kinect owners. It's about getting a handle on the tech, finding ways to improve the tech and deliver it at a lower price, establishing key franchises, and forging relationships with customers and developers. If Kinect can bring in enough money to eat into most of its development cost, and set MS up for the next round of hardware, it's a win for them.

[Dukefrukem]

So you're saying when the Kinect 2 comes out for the Xbox 720 it will come out a year earlier than the Wii2 and the PS4 and reign in sales?

All kidding aside, I agree with you.

[Gorvi]

Grifter, I see what you're saying, I'm just not as positive about either. I think the only real edge that MS has in the HD motion control war is the marketing money, they'll have advertisements every 4 seconds on every channel you turn to for 2 months.

[MosBen]

Also, again, you have to keep in mind that as production ramps up, MS will find ways to make it more efficient and cheaper to produce Kinect. Also, they'll start saving money just from volume. And, of course, the components will get cheaper over time. I would not be surprised if they dropped the price to $100 for Christmas 2011 and/or made it a standard part of every 360 package. And going with my post above, Kinect or something based on it will almost certainly be a standard part of their next machine. Even if it's only a method of menu navigation, video chat, and headset-less online team speak, it's here to stay. But of course, like any major piece of console hardware, MS is certainly hoping to establish some kind of memorable franchise that people will associate with Kinect; it's own Halo or Wii Sports.

[rein]

Mosben, I don't disagree with you but you're sort of stating the obvious and the same thing applies to the other two companies as well.

[Grifter]

Grifter, I see what you're saying, I'm just not as positive about either. I think the only real edge that MS has in the HD motion control war is the marketing money, they'll have advertisements every 4 seconds on every channel you turn to for 2 months.

True, which is part of the reason I have so much faith in where things are going. You don't dump money into something you don't plan on supporting and the technology is good enough to reliably give that support.

This is more a personal feeling than anything mainly because there isn't enough evidence out there yet to prove one way or the other but I think this is the sequel to 3D (polygon not glasses) gaming. It's pretty rough around the edges even uglier than the older ways in some regards but when done right it's going to be awesome and give us experiences we only imagined before and like 3D gaming it's going to take time to perfect but as long as the ride is fun I'm on bored.

EDIT: For clarities sake I do not believe motion controls will ever completely replace the controller as long as we rely on 2D displays but will evolve into a seamless symbiotic relationship with the physical controller

[MosBen]

reign, based on the discussion that's happened thus far, I don't think what I'm saying is terribly obvious. This discussion is based around the belief that Kinect will sell for $150, which many folks seem to think is far beyond a reasonable cost and/or a cost which will allow the device to "succeed". Many of that group seem to be defining "success" as, at the very least, substantially eating into Nintendo's Wii customers; in converting people from Wii users to 360/Kinect users. I think this is not a good definition of success, nor one that MS is expecting.

Also, the people who think $150 is too much seem to think, or don't express it if they think otherwise, that this price is some kind of permanent barrier to the success of the device. Instead, I think there is a group of people who will gladly buy the device for $150 because it's new and exciting, and I think that eventually the price will go down and a new group of people will buy it. And somewhere in that mix is a group of people that won't buy it until they've played it at someone's house and fallen in love with it such that they decide they have to have it. That happened with the Wii and it's reasonable to assume it will happen to some degree with Kinect.

Kinect fails if MS loses tons of money on it and abandons the tech. If they recoup most of the money, gain at least some customers, and incorporate the tech into future products, then that's a success. While everyone wants to be the biggest dog in the room, and we nerds love to crown "winners", the success or failure of products is not solely deterimined by selling more that every other competing product.

Edit: Just to clarify something, the general theme of this discussion is that pricing Kinect at $150 is some kind of mistake on MS' part, but whether people think it's a mistake seems directly tied to whether they're willing to pay that price or whether they think the device will be able to dominate the market at that price. Neither of those are, I think good barometers.

[RandoM51]

Many of that group seem to be defining "success" as, at the very least, substantially eating into Nintendo's Wii customers; in converting people from Wii users to 360/Kinect users.

Many of that group would appear to be on mind-altering substances.

[MachEnergy]

@MosBen: tl;dr :D kidding!

But I do agree with you on most points. Unfortunately, your obvious statements don't appear to be generally obvious to everyone. I appreciate you taking your time to clearly spell it out, but I have a feeling that people who don't agree with your views are not going to take the time to read your blocks of text. Still, well said.

I'll say that while I'm willing to pay $150, I think it's a bad move. If they couldn't do $99/unit, then something in between would look so much nicer. Even $139 looks way better than $149. I have no doubt it will sell well enough to continue supporting Kinect into the future, but a slightly lower price would guarantee a lot more non-early adopters buy one.

[rein]

Mosben

I should have quoted because I was replying to your second post but everything you are saying about Kinect applies to Sony and the Move too. It can also apply to Sony trying to launch 3D gaming and 3D television sets just as it applied when they were trying to introduce Blu-ray.

A lot of people will point to the inclusion of Blu-ray (cost) as one of the reasons Microsoft was able to gain so much sales on Sony this generation. I remember Sony being destroyed on message boards for including Blu-ray but it turned out to be a win for them because they established a new media.

I agree about companies being able to consider something other than market share a win but it goes for all three companies. I honestly believe that both Move and Kinect will be a success in the eyes of Sony and Microsoft. Nintendo has proved that it only takes one killer app like Wii Fit to make the cost of entry justifiable for enough people. Unfortunately this isn't the direction I wanted things to go. I was joking about next gen becoming a battle over fitness and dance games but there is a part of me that thinks there is some truth in that statement.

[Orca]

No, but it's foolish to buy some new tech based on the potential possible uses of it when there's nothing available for it that you're even remotely interested in.

An awful lot of people bought PS3's prior to 2009. :cool:

[Gorvi]

An awful lot of people bought PS3's prior to 2009. :cool:
It's a good thing there were some damn good games to play on it before then too.......

[MosBen]

reign, ok, my bad. I agree completely. All of my arguments apply equally well to Sony and Nintendo. I am fairly shocked at the total cost of a full assortment of Move accessories, but it's just as true that there are some people out there with enough disposable income to pay it, and most people will be able to get by with less than the full set of stuff.

I also hope it's obvious that I'm not saying that price is irrelevent. The total price of Move may depress its sales. Kinect's sales may also be hampered by cost until they get it to some magic point where people start picking it up in droves, assuming there's pent up interest in buying it but for the cost.

My only real point was that there's more to the success of a product than selling the absolute most units among your competitors. On that, I think we agree. Yay for agreement!

[Doctor Setebos]

The official Microsoft store has the Kinect available for pre-order (http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081) at $150.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/gamelife/2010/06/kinect150-660x248.jpg

Source - Game|Life (http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/06/kinect-price)

[OldJadedGamer]

I'm starting to think they are testing reaction to the price because even their own website still says the price after a day and if they were that determined it would have been removed by now.... but oddly it's still up.

[RandoM51]

You're late by about 3 pages Doctor Setebos. :)

If they're testing they're testing the wrong people.

$150 seems right in line to me. Instead of comparing to other platforms, compare to other control setups on the same platform.

Kinect is equivalent to two wireless controllers + two play and charge kits, in terms of 2 players being able to game, nonstop.

$149.99 vs. $139.96, the $10 premium for connect gets you voice control for your mediacenter.

[MosBen]

Now that I think about it, if the rumor is right and it costs MS $150 to produce, then hopefully that means that a price reduction 6-10 months after launch will be possible as they make their manufacturing more efficient.

[Doctor Setebos]

You're late by about 3 pages Doctor Setebos. :)Yeah, I realized that after I had already posted. :p I guess more than the "news" itself, what I find really surprising is that it wasn't an accident that was pulled off the site immediately after it was discovered. It's still there a whole day later.

Also, 50 POSTS PER PAGE! :D

[Orca]

They updated that store page to say the price hasn't been announced and it's an estimate only.

[Dukefrukem]

Stay classy Microsoft.

[Doctor Setebos]

They updated that store page to say the price hasn't been announced and it's an estimate only.Wow, that only took them two full days.

[Sl1pstream]

So, is the next generation of console gaming going to be a battle of fitness and dance games?

I'm with Harmonix! [/civil war]

[fitbabits]

The new rumored price for Kinect is $119.

[Jason]

The new rumored price for Kinect is $119.

That's better than $149, but they still should start out at $99 or less.

[OldJadedGamer]

That's better than $149, but they still should start out at $99 or less.

I think it will be $99 but kind of feel it will be $120. $99 is really the sweet spot for it.

[Jason]

I can see myself spending $99 on Kinect if they get it working like they advertise it doing.

[rein]

I can see myself spending $99 on Kinect if they get it working like they advertise it doing.I think that will be key. We can talk price all day long but if it doesn't deliver as advertised even $99 could be too much. That being said, I'm confident they will at least get it working close to what has been advertised. Unfortunately I don't think it will launch with under $100.

[mightbe]

Anyone wondering about the tracking:

You basically get 2 people in full 3D tracking without any problems. After that you can get lots of people in 2D tracking for not much more of a performance hit. More than 2 in full 3D gets expensive quickly.

[Karak]

Anyone wondering about the tracking:

You basically get 2 people in full 3D tracking without any problems. After that you can get lots of people in 2D tracking for not much more of a performance hit. More than 2 in full 3D gets expensive quickly.

I have washed my hands of worrying about any of that. The developers seem to want to try their hand at it. And each will try something different. It will be interesting to see.

Supposedly there was some kind of Paper Airplane game showed or video demoed at the event for some people. Make your own paper airplanes by folding in the air and see who can fly them the farthest in a school gym? I have now seen a couple people talking about it.
Sounds intriguing and just the kind of mindless stuff I would enjoy.

[tacitus]

The developers seem to want to try their hand at it. And each will try something different. It will be interesting to see.

Sort of how I feel - I imagine there will be some duds because Kinect will not be used effectively or the game just will be bad. I suspect there will be some interesting gems out there. We will see.

[muddi900]

I'm surprised nobody has hit you in the face with, "the plural of anecdote is not data." before.

Actually that's a fallacy. What is data but anecdotes observed in controlled environment.

[Exodus]

I can't wait for this to garner more support. Ever since 'The Island' with scarlett and mcgregor when they duke it out brutally I've wanted this.

[Gorvi]

He only does about one comic per decade it seems, but when he does Scott at VGCats is usually pretty damn funny:

http://www.vgcats.com/comics/images/100623.jpg

[MagGnome]

Ha, that was funny. Thanks for sharing Gorvi. :)

[Generation ABXY]

After reading Lamebook for so long, that Facebook part got me good... reality indeed. :D

Oh, how I used to love VGCats.

[Narradisall]

Hahaha, that was awesome.

And so likely to happen in most cases.

[Dukefrukem]

Pretty funny.

[Dukefrukem]

Confirmed. (http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/06/29/kinect-specs-posted-640x480-at-30fps-two-players-maximum/)

[Narradisall]

I'll still wait on the games. I have a feeling the first load of games for this are going to suck balls.

[MachEnergy]

I'll still wait on the games. I have a feeling the first load of games for this are going to suck balls.

Definitely possible. I'm still bummed that the Xbox Vision camera never got anywhere near the developer attention that the Eye Toy 1&2 received. Totemball was absolutely a waste of time.

I keep hoping to hear that Harmonix ports over Anti-Grav to Kinetic, so I can re-live the fun I had with that PS2 game.

[OldJadedGamer]

Confirmed. (http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/06/29/kinect-specs-posted-640x480-at-30fps-two-players-maximum/)

I didn't see anywhere in there where it's confirmed to cost $150 to manufacture.

[Gorvi]

I didn't see anywhere in there where it's confirmed to cost $150 to manufacture.
I think he meant the 2 player maximum thing.

[Farsight]

I never played the Wii with >2 people at once, so it's not a major issue to me.