MS To Sell 10 Million 360s in Q4!?

[Telefrog]

Pachter and other game industry analysts have always gotten a lot of flack from gamers for being out of touch with reality, but Bruce Everiss may win the prize with this gem of a prediction (http://seekingalpha.com/article/102019-how-many-xbox-360-units-will-microsoft-ship-in-q4):


Obviously Microsoft (MSFT) knows the answer to this one because it has already decided its manufacturing numbers. We can only guess. So let's look what happened in the last two years. In 2006 the companyy shipped just 1 million units in Q3 and then 4.4 million units in Q4. So over a fourfold increase for the holiday season quarter. Then in 2007 it shipped 1.8 million units Q3 followed by 4.2 million units Q4, just over doubling this time.

This year Microsoft has just announced a 2.2 million unit Q3, their best yet. Can it recreate that fourfold plus increase from 2006? It would give them a quarter of 9.68 million units. I think it can and here’s why:


The massive price drop to $199 now makes the 360 a casual impulse purchase. People will just put one in the trolley as they walk round Wal-Mart (WMT), Carrefour, Tesco etc. Also critical is that it is now cheaper than the Wii so the many people who buy on price alone could well switch their purchase.


Sony (SNE) is now very widely perceived to have lost. And the PS3 is still very expensive and is a far weaker buying proposition. Lots of people are going to switch their attentions to the 360. Especially keen gamers who already have a PS3 and who can see how much they are missing out. There are going to be a lot of households with two current generation consoles.


In Japan the Xbox 360 has really taken off. It is selling far faster than Microsoft expected and the company is suffering shortages as it struggles to keep up with demand. If the 360 becomes “must have” it could sell the entire 9 million units here. Seriously. The Japanese market is very fashion led and frequently winds itself into a frenzy.


Major revisions to Live. Pundits continually underestimate Live yet to Microsoft it is the main event. The consoles are just an enabling tool. This revision is seen by Microsoft as reinventing its whole offering. It is making the jump from gaming platform to being the most capable multimedia device on the market. With 14 million members, the Live service now has massive momentum. But still nothing compared with what it will achieve as it becomes the essential entertainment hub.


The recession. A lot of people will see this Christmas as their last chance for a good time before the economic realities hit home. An Xbox 360 also makes sense in a recession as it is very cheap, very high quality entertainment. So bad economic times may well actually help Microsoft.


Piracy. There has been a massive recent increase in Xbox 360 piracy whilst the PS3 is still largely pirate proof. The reality is that there are a huge number of thieves out there who like to steal their games for free. They see no need to contribute towards the cost of making their entertainment. So for this audience the Xbox 360 becomes the game console of choice.


The games. Quite simply the Xbox 360 has by far the best catalogue of games out of the current generation platforms. And playing games is what these machines are about. And when games are cross platform they generally play better on the 360. Till recently people were hoping that the Wii and PS3 would compete or even catch up with the 360 game catalogue. But now it is blatantly obvious that they won’t, the 360 is just too far ahead, Microsoft have tied up too many exclusives and it is a far better business proposition for publishers.


Looking at this I can see a potential for Microsoft cracking 10 million units in Q4. Lets hope the company is geared up to do it.

I have a 360, and I love the games on it, but this guy is smoking some delicious crack.

[violent]

Repeat buyers FTW.

[TheFlyingOrc]

I enjoy my 360 greatly as well, but when you put "Microsoft have tied up" in a professional article, I don't think your opinion needs examining.

[itchyeyes]

I could see the $200 price point leading to some dramatic sales bumps for the 360 in Q4, but nowhere near 10 million units. This guy is looking at it all wrong. A better way to look at the numbers would be in percentage increase due to the price drop. We've got 2.2 million in Q3 '08 and 1.8 million in Q3'07, a 22% jump. A similar jump for Q4 would put holiday '08 360 sales at 5.13 million units. I'd say definitely no more than 6 million units. By comparison the Nintendo is manufacturing 2.4 million Wii's per month, which puts them at 7.2 million for Q4 (of course that's a supply constrained estimate).

[Schnoogs]

$200 for the win

[Telefrog]

I could see the $200 price point leading to some dramatic sales bumps for the 360 in Q4, but nowhere near 10 million units. This guy is looking at it all wrong. A better way to look at the numbers would be in percentage increase due to the price drop. We've got 2.2 million in Q3 '08 and 1.8 million in Q3'07, a 22% jump. A similar jump for Q4 would put holiday '08 360 sales at 5.13 million units. I'd say definitely no more than 6 million units. By comparison the Nintendo is manufacturing 2.4 million Wii's per month, which puts them at 7.2 million for Q4 (of course that's a supply constrained estimate).

6 million sounds possible. It would be tough (and of course, MS will call 6 million shipped just as good) but it's within the realm of possibility.

10 million units in one quarter? Dreamland.

I like that he had the crazy balls to say pirates would contribute a significant amount of those unit sales. See? MS should encourage console modders and pirates. :D

[quidmonkey]

His figures are units shipped, not sold.

[Telefrog]

His figures are units shipped, not sold.

Shipped or sold, 10 million is way too high. When MS stuffed the channel last time, retailers were shrieking.

Oh, God. This guy has an even better article on his own blog. Why The Xbox 360 Will Outsell The Wii (http://www.bruceongames.com/2008/09/08/why-the-xbox-360-will-outsell-the-wii/).



The Wii is for many people little more than a glorified toy. It is just a box for playing Wii Sports or Wii Fit. If these people want proper gaming they will buy a 360.


The 360 has by far the best catalogue of games in this generation. This is because they launched first, because it is far easier to develop for than the PS3, because Microsoft have invested a lot in exclusives and because 360 owners buy more games than owners of the other consoles. The Wii has some brilliant first party exclusives, but these are relatively few and most third party games are little more than shovelware.


The Wii is very stunted in capabilites being largely just an uprated gamecube. It’s capabilities are far behind those of the Xbox 360. This is especially damaging in the lack of HDTV support and a hard drive. Comparing the two machines side by side is like looking ar a Ferrari next to a bicycle.


The Wii is going to have a very short production life, perhaps four years, before it is replaced by a SuperWii that will correct its weaknesses. The Xbox 360 is going to be in production for at least eight years, the last half of that life as the low cost partner to the Xbox 720 (Phoenix) in a two model range. So the 360 has a long time to catch up and overtake the Wii for total sales.


The 360 is being engineered into a single chip (+memory) combining the GPU and CPU. The effects of Moore’s Law are such that this will become cheap enough to incorporate into televisions, which Microsoft seem to be gearing up to do. Nintendo have no chance here with the Wii, who would want a non HD console built into their HDTV?

[itchyeyes]

Shipped or sold, 10 million is way too high. When MS stuffed the channel last time, retailers were shrieking.
And they were stuffing it to get to 10 million in a year, not in a quarter. No matter what way you look at it, this guy is off his rocker.

[Gorvi]

This is satire, right?

[KidCactus]

In Japan the Xbox 360 has really taken off. It is selling far faster than Microsoft expected and the company is suffering shortages as it struggles to keep up with demand. If the 360 becomes “must have” it could sell the entire 9 million units here. Seriously. The Japanese market is very fashion led and frequently winds itself into a frenzy.
Come on, the 360 sold 7,856 units in Japan between 13/10 and 19/10. This guy's cRaZy!!! Seriously.

[Norse]

If buyers were smart the X360 should outsell the Wii. In reality? Average consumers are sheep.

[KingGorilla]

In 06 that incredible sales led to them slashing Q1 and 2 projections. We all remember the Xbox forts in stores for months after that. I can see them tryong to double that. Maybe on the heels of TV bundles like Sony has tried but with the Arcades. What will be interresting is if the retailers play ball this time. In 06 the Wii was an unknown quantity.

[OldJadedGamer]

Repeat buyers FTW.

Worked for the PS2...

[Schnoogs]

If buyers were smart the X360 should outsell the Wii. In reality? Average consumers are sheep.

Quoted for truth

[Telefrog]

Quoted for truth

It's really interesting because nothing he says in his second article is false, but it's all crazytalk because he fails to take into account that the people buying the Wii don't care about any of those points. They really don't.

[violent]

Worked for the PS2...

Not even close.

[Talon]

It's really interesting because nothing he says in his second article is false, but it's all crazytalk because he fails to take into account that the people buying the Wii don't care about any of those points. They really don't.

Exactly. Most people buying consoles aren't looking to rock through all these games like us hardcore gamers do with Fable 2, Gears of War 2, Fallout 3, etc.

I don't begrudge them for it at all.

[Murtaug]

My predictions: Nintendo will sell every Wii they can manufacture and ship, this much is obvious. Microsoft will probably sell a record number of 360's coming in second with Sony very close behind.

The "console wars" should just be called over, numbers are wild all over. What matters these days are the games; to me the two contenders are Sony and Microsoft and both have excellent titles on the line up.

[Norse]

Not even close.

How so????

[crazyD]

If buyers were smart the X360 should outsell the Wii. In reality? Average consumers are sheep.

Or maybe the average consumer just enjoys the Wii more? I don't see how having different interests then you makes someone stupid. Personally, if I had to choose between the two, I would take the Wii. I do most of my gaming on the PC, and think the Wii complements it better.

[violent]

How so????

You saying you agree that the PS2 has hit the numbers it has due to incessant failures? Granted, PS2 had a failure rate but a) I don't believe it's as high as the 360's and b) it's not the reason it's selling like 150k+ a month.

[Schnoogs]

Or maybe the average consumer just enjoys the Wii more? .

Which is funny because 90% of the wii owners I know bought the damn thing because it was the "hot" toy and now it collects dust.

If I had a dollar for every Wii owner I knew who was "over it" I would have some change on my hand!

[crazyD]

Which is funny because 90% of the wii owners I know bought the damn thing because it was the "hot" toy and now it collects dust.

If I had a dollar for every Wii owner I knew who was "over it" I would have some change on my hand!

And if I had a dollar for every time someone on this forum posted an anecdotal story as evidence, I would have some change on my hand. Let me counter this argument by saying 91% of the Wii owners I know still use it fairly regularly. So, there.

[Schnoogs]

And if I had a dollar for every time someone on this forum posted an anecdotal story as evidence, I would have some change on my hand. Let me counter this argument by saying 90% of the Wii owners I know still use it fairly regularly. So, there.

That was the point dude...I was countering YOUR anecdotal claim that Wii owners are satisfied.

[violent]

Which is funny because 90% of the wii owners I know bought the damn thing because it was the "hot" toy and now it collects dust.

If I had a dollar for every Wii owner I knew who was "over it" I would have some change on my hand!

Here's a nickel.

[Talon]

Which is funny because 90% of the wii owners I know bought the damn thing because it was the "hot" toy and now it collects dust.

If I had a dollar for every Wii owner I knew who was "over it" I would have some change on my hand!

And almost everyone I know enjoys their Wii even if they only play Mario Kart and Wii Bowling on it every now and then. Most people I know are casual gamers (if even that), and they're just happy with taking the Wii out once a month on a lazy Friday night and playing Mario Kart. Again, anecdotal evidence really means nothing. Actually, it's funny to me because they seem to be having more of a blast playing that tank game on Wii Play then I do half the time I'm playing AAA releases.

I don't see why it should matter to me (or anyone) that tons of people are buying Wiis instead of 360s. The only rational reason people should be happy about a console doing well is in order to get a strong software library. The 360 certainly is succeeding in that regards, so why do people still get their panties in a wad about the Wii selling like hotcakes?

[Schnoogs]

anecdotal evidence really means nothing

No shit...another person who failed to understand my post...try reading the one I responded to.

Context is everything. :rolleyes:

[Talon]

No shit...another person who failed to understand my post...try reading the one I responded to.

Context is everything. :rolleyes:

Could it be that your post went up after I started writing my post? ;)

[crazyD]

That was the point dude...I was countering YOUR anecdotal claim that Wii owners are satisfied.

My intention was to positing an alternate theory that doesn't revolve around "Wii owners r stoopid lol". Just opening up the idea that, maybe, some people like it. I guess the personal comment on my experience was unnecessary, and I apologize to everyone who read it.

[Schnoogs]

Mostly because I'm convinced that someone with as disagreeable of a temperament as you couldn't actually exist.

Think of me as a gauge simply responding to the nonsense that gets posted here. :p

[Talon]

Think of me as a gauge simply responding to the nonsense that gets posted here. :p

So you're trying to negate yourself? :p

[Norse]

You saying you agree that the PS2 has hit the numbers it has due to incessant failures? Granted, PS2 had a failure rate but a) I don't believe it's as high as the 360's and b) it's not the reason it's selling like 150k+ a month.

No I don't agree with that, but I don't think 360 numbers are influenced by this either, which I thought you implied by your answer. I guess you didn't.

[violent]

No I don't agree with that, but I don't think 360 numbers are influenced by this either, which I thought you implied by your answer. I guess you didn't.

I was just being an ass. I have a personal gripe with the 360 failure rates and I was playing on that. If it came down to it though, I wouldn't use failure rates as an actual factor for high sales numbers.

[Norse]

I know a lot of Wii users who enjoy the system. Common for them all is the fact that they're either 15 y.o. or younger or parents who has never played video games before. That's the key to Nintendo's success I guess, but I can't really relate to that audience.

[OldJadedGamer]

I was just being an ass.

Hence the reason for my response ;)

[violent]

Hence the reason for my response ;)

Ah, touché.

[TheFlyingOrc]

If buyers were smart the X360 should outsell the Wii. In reality? Average consumers are sheep.

Yeah - what kind of games you play and how you like to have fun is clearly indicative of your intelligence.

[TheFlyingOrc]

That was the point dude...I was countering YOUR anecdotal claim that Wii owners are satisfied.

That's....that's not an anecdote. Do you know what anecdotes are?

[Dukefrukem]

Repeat buyers FTW.

I LOLed. I bet MS does count that too. Probably repairs as well.

[Dukefrukem]

Quoted for truth

It is true. I have girl friends who bought the wii for the fuck of it, who would never consider buying a 360 or Ps3, but they see commercials and how much fun people are having in them, so they want to play too. It boggles my mind.

[Dukefrukem]

How so????

Because the PS2 didn't have massive failures like the 360. Not on the 360 scale. No where near it.

[itchyeyes]

I LOLed. I bet MS does count that too. Probably repairs as well.
Repeat buyers, definitely. Even if they didn't want to count them, there would be no practical way to really tell them apart from regular buyers. Not repairs though, since they don't receive any revenue for them.

[Dukefrukem]

My cousins are on their 5th box... 5th!!!!!

[TheFlyingOrc]

My cousins are on their 5th box... 5th!!!!!

...are they getting them repaired? Because if they're buying them, they are unbelievably stupid.

[Telefrog]

I don't see why it should matter to me (or anyone) that tons of people are buying Wiis instead of 360s. The only rational reason people should be happy about a console doing well is in order to get a strong software library. The 360 certainly is succeeding in that regards, so why do people still get their panties in a wad about the Wii selling like hotcakes?

I agree. If the Wii continues to do well, then it's good news for Nintendo, and Mario fans. For the rest of us game junkies and the 'hardcore' crowd, the PS3 and the 360 are still there cranking out great software.

[itchyeyes]

Or maybe the average consumer just enjoys the Wii more? I don't see how having different interests then you makes someone stupid. Personally, if I had to choose between the two, I would take the Wii. I do most of my gaming on the PC, and think the Wii complements it better.
The average consumer isn't nearly as informed as you though. Hell, about 50% of the people in my office own a Wii. Half of them don't even know what an Xbox 360 is let alone considered it's strengths and weaknesses before making their buying decision. The Wii's success is a combination of two things. 1st it's accessible (or at least that's the way the public views it, kudos to Nintendo's marketing dept). 2nd, like Norse said, people are sheep. I'm not saying that Nintendo doesn't deserve that success. And I'm not saying that some people aren't buying the Wii because they like it better, just not to the tune of 600k/month in the US alone.

[crazyD]

The average consumer isn't nearly as informed as you though. Hell, about 50% of the people in my office own a Wii. Half of them don't even know what an Xbox 360 is let alone considered it's strengths and weaknesses before making their buying decision. The Wii's success is a combination of two things. 1st it's accessible (or at least that's the way the public views it, kudos to Nintendo's marketing dept). 2nd, like Norse said, people are sheep. I'm not saying that Nintendo doesn't deserve that success. And I'm not saying that some people aren't buying the Wii because they like it better, just not to the tune of 600k/month in the US alone.

I disagree. There is something to be said for simple and fun, and the Wii certainly displays this. I'm sure those two reasons have some play into why it is successful, but I'm also sure that "People genuinely enjoy using it," has quite a bit to do with the success as well.

[MalReynolds]

id say ... 7.5 million if that ..

[Schnoogs]

I disagree. There is something to be said for simple and fun, and the Wii certainly displays this. I'm sure those two reasons have some play into why it is successful, but I'm also sure that "People genuinely enjoy using it," has quite a bit to do with the success as well.

In addition to being simply and fun I like a solid gaming catalog...that's why I chose the 360. :p

[crazyD]

In addition to being simply and fun I like a solid gaming catalog...that's why I chose the 360. :p

Odd, that's why I chose the Wii. Different strokes.

[itchyeyes]

I disagree. There is something to be said for simple and fun, and the Wii certainly displays this. I'm sure those two reasons have some play into why it is successful, but I'm also sure that "People genuinely enjoy using it," has quite a bit to do with the success as well.
See I would agree with this, were it not for the continued existence of the PS2, which is, in my personal opinion, a far better choice for most casual gamers. It's significantly cheaper, has a massive library of quality games (almost all for less than $20), has nearly the same graphical fidelity as the Wii, and still gets regular releases of games like Buzz, Rock Band, and Guitar Hero which are just as "simple and fun" as anything on the Wii, and often times identical to their Wii counterparts. Yet the Wii still moves 4-6 times as many units every month.

I don't disagree with you that people enjoy the Wii. But I don't think they're buying it in large numbers because it compares that much more favorably with other systems on the market. They're buying it because of marketing and word of mouth.

[Mike Kelehan]

Anyone who thinks $200 is a throw-it-in-the-cart impulse buy hasn't been paying attention to the economy.

[quidmonkey]

See I would agree with this, were it not for the continued existence of the PS2, which is, in my personal opinion, a far better choice for most casual gamers. It's significantly cheaper, has a massive library of quality games (almost all for less than $20), has nearly the same graphical fidelity as the Wii, and still gets regular releases of games like Buzz, Rock Band, and Guitar Hero which are just as "simple and fun" as anything on the Wii, and often times identical to their Wii counterparts. Yet the Wii still moves 4-6 times as many units every month.

Really? I mean - really?

/facepalm

[OldJadedGamer]

Because the PS2 didn't have massive failures like the 360. Not on the 360 scale. No where near it.

I've repaired my PS2 two times more then I've repaired my 360 and not only that, I get so many Disc Read Errors on my current PS2 that I had to buy the HDLoader for it so I could run games off the harddrive. So if I repair my current unit, that will be 3 times I've had to repair it. All over the exact same issue.

Never forget that Sony settled a class action lawsuit over faulty PS2 hardware. And if you read these old ConsumerAffairs reports from consumers, you will start to see a trend on what goes wrong with the unit.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/home_electronics/sony_play.html

Like:

Andrew of Warren PA (3/6/02):
"I purchased a Playstation 2 at the end of November 2001 for $299 plus tax and by February of 2002 the unit was not working properly. In my instance, I receive a "Disc Read Error" when I try to start a DVD in the system. After contacting the store I bought it from, Electronics Boutique, the employee told me that this store alone receives 5-15 faulty systems a week which have the same problem as mine, and that this problems occurs anywhere from one month to 18 months after the system is bought. Unfortunately, since the warranty had run out, he could do nothing for me."

[itchyeyes]

Really? I mean - really?

/facepalm
Yeah... really. Do you want to elaborate on your objections, or is that all you have to offer to the conversation?

[quidmonkey]

Metacritic's list of recent PS2 releases (http://www.metacritic.com/games/ps2/) - Show me a casual game on that list? RB and GH have some casual appeal, but it's among those who were once gamers; and neither is simple. I'd wager you had difficulty learning to strum and fret when you first started playing.

The Wii's casual appeal lies in the Wiimote; and its fun. You can't compare music games to Wii Sports. This is the crux of the Wii.

[Telefrog]

Metacritic's list of recent PS2 releases (http://www.metacritic.com/games/ps2/) - Show me a casual game on that list? RB and GH have some casual appeal, but it's among those who were once gamers; and neither is simple. I'd wager you had difficulty learning to strum and fret when you first started playing.

The Wii's casual appeal lies in the Wiimote; and its fun. You can't compare music games to Wii Sports. This is the crux of the Wii.

The other part of what itchyeyes is saying is that the Wii is new. The Wii has great marketing, casual appeal, a cheap price (and has had that for longer) than the other two new consoles, and is the "new" buzzworthy must-have toy. Oprah loves it! The Today Show loves it! Regis loves it! Although it's easy to argue that the PS2 has a much larger catalog of games, even casual games, it's also not as new.

If you're a parent and you have to buy a console for Christmas, would you buy the PS2 or the Wii? Which would jazz your kids more on Christmas morning?

[quidmonkey]

The other part of what itchyeyes is saying is that the Wii is new. The Wii has great marketing, casual appeal, a cheap price (and has had that for longer) than the other two new consoles, and is the "new" buzzworthy must-have toy. Oprah loves it! The Today Show loves it! Regis loves it! Although it's easy to argue that the PS2 has a much larger catalog of games, even casual games, it's also not as new.

If you're a parent and you have to buy a console for Christmas, would you buy the PS2 or the Wii? Which would jazz your kids more on Christmas morning?

While having the newest toy on the block is appealing, 360 and PS3 are also new toys - where's their sales? Wii is also the hot shit for the third holiday season running. Wii is more than a fad: it's changing the industry.

[itchyeyes]

Metacritic's list of recent PS2 releases (http://www.metacritic.com/games/ps2/) - Show me a casual game on that list? RB and GH have some casual appeal, but it's among those who were once gamers; and neither is simple. I'd wager you had difficulty learning to strum and fret when you first started playing.

The Wii's casual appeal lies in the Wiimote; and its fun. You can't compare music games to Wii Sports. This is the crux of the Wii.
I beg to differ. The Wiimote does not have a monopoly on simple user interfaces. I've yet to meet a person, even a non-gamer who found music games difficult to get into or intimidating. But if you need examples of even simpler user interfaces consider the Eye Toy, Buzz, DDR, Time Crisis, Sing Star, Karaoke Revolution, etc...

Now obviously, none of these games are nearly as high profile as Wii Sports, but that just brings me back to my original point: that people aren't comparing the Wii against their other options and are simply buying what's most popular.

I'm not knocking the Wii here. I'm not saying that it's not fun. I'm just saying that its continued success has a lot more to do with marketing, perception, and popularity feeding off of itself than some people here seem willing to admit.

[quidmonkey]

Your statements are moot without hard numbers. Advertising does play a role, and it's no secret that Nintendo has curtailed most hardcore advertising in favor of venues like Oprah, Good Housekeeping, etc. But of those titles you've listed, the casual consumer wouldn't have the patience to play them. None of those titles were designed with the casual gamer in mind. The casual gamer lives because of the Wii. Without the Wii, there is no casual gamer. Games like SingStar and KR have since changed their designs in hopes of appealing to the casuals; and casuals are trying SingStar and KR because they've had so much fun with Wii Sports and Wii Play and want to duplicate that experience.

[Telefrog]

While having the newest toy on the block is appealing, 360 and PS3 are also new toys - where's their sales? Wii is also the hot shit for the third holiday season running. Wii is more than a fad: it's changing the industry.

I will clarify. It's not just being "new" that does it. It has to be new and buzzworthy. The 360 and the PS3 don't have the popular buzz that the Wii enjoys. People see the Wii demoed and they want to grab the remote and bowl, or hit baseballs, or box. The appeal is immediate - especially to folks that have either never gotten the whole videogame hobby, or have always thought of it as a kid's toy. I credit Nintendo for finding a way to attract normal people to the tradititionally insular and hostile world of gaming.

As I pointed out, Oprah gave a bunch of them away to a screaming audience. There was no such promotional offer for the 360 or the PS3 on Oprah's show. The Today Show has featured the Wii every holiday since it came out. The 360 and the PS3 are lucky to get quick mentions in the "Hot Toys For The Holidays" segment on Today.

[crazyD]

I beg to differ. The Wiimote does not have a monopoly on simple user interfaces. I've yet to meet a person, even a non-gamer who found music games difficult to get into or intimidating. But if you need examples of even simpler user interfaces consider the Eye Toy, Buzz, DDR, Time Crisis, Sing Star, Karaoke Revolution, etc...

All of which require extra hardware purchases to be used for small number of games, which can lead to negating the price difference. The Wii has a simple and fun controller included that works on the vast majority of games released.

[quidmonkey]

Oh come on. What do you think would happen if Oprah gave away 360s?

[TheFlyingOrc]

As I pointed out, Oprah gave a bunch of them away to a screaming audience. There was no such promotional offer for the 360 or the PS3 on Oprah's show. The Today Show has featured the Wii every holiday since it came out. The 360 and the PS3 are lucky to get quick mentions in the "Hot Toys For The Holidays" segment on Today.
That's because games are for children and manchildren. As a manchild myself, I can appreciate games like Gears of War, but I understand that most people out of college, and most women, hate GUNS GUNS MONSTERS EXPLOOOOOOOOOOOOSIONS WOO!!!!!

[RandoM51]

I've repaired my PS2 two times more then I've repaired my 360 and not only that, I get so many Disc Read Errors on my current PS2 that I had to buy the HDLoader for it so I could run games off the harddrive. So if I repair my current unit, that will be 3 times I've had to repair it. All over the exact same issue.

Never forget that Sony settled a class action lawsuit over faulty PS2 hardware. And if you read these old ConsumerAffairs reports from consumers, you will start to see a trend on what goes wrong with the unit.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/home_electronics/sony_play.html

Like:

Andrew of Warren PA (3/6/02):
"I purchased a Playstation 2 at the end of November 2001 for $299 plus tax and by February of 2002 the unit was not working properly. In my instance, I receive a "Disc Read Error" when I try to start a DVD in the system. After contacting the store I bought it from, Electronics Boutique, the employee told me that this store alone receives 5-15 faulty systems a week which have the same problem as mine, and that this problems occurs anywhere from one month to 18 months after the system is bought. Unfortunately, since the warranty had run out, he could do nothing for me."

Yeah, you'd realize that dvd drives were not that mature at the time the PS2 was released. So you've repaired your ps2 two times more than your 360 and owned it what, 3x as long? :)

The ps2 failure rates aren't even in the same ballpark as those of the 360, and the 360 had its own disk-scratching lawsuit. Should the 360 go on to sell > 100million units like the PS2 I think you'll see even more complaints---just stands to reason, the bigger the target you are the more people take shots at you.

[Telefrog]

Oh come on. What do you think would happen if Oprah gave away 360s?

What happens when Oprah features a book on her show? I can tell you because my wife works for Barnes & Noble. Sales go through the fucking roof. It's not even funny how much of a jump an old book will get when featured by her as a pick. Seriously, publishers will kill their mothers to get a book on that list.

[Disgustipated]

...are they getting them repaired? Because if they're buying them, they are unbelievably stupid.

They're related to DukeFrukem, if that tells you anything.

[TheFlyingOrc]

They're related to DukeFrukem, if that tells you anything.

I resisted the urge to say something along those lines.

[Disgustipated]

I resisted the urge to say something along those lines.

The correlation was crystal clear, I had to take the shot.

[TheFlyingOrc]

The correlation was crystal clear, I had to take the shot.

For Duke's understanding:

What Disgustipated and I are saying here is that you are not very intelligent.

[itchyeyes]

All of which require extra hardware purchases to be used for small number of games, which can lead to negating the price difference. The Wii has a simple and fun controller included that works on the vast majority of games released.
Except we're not talking about hardcore gamers who buy 12 games a year. We're talking about casual gamers who buy maybe 1 game a year. Not to mention that while the Wii remote works with almost all Wii games, those games still cost twice as much on average as PS2 games, and 95% of them make almost no use of Wiimote functionality beyond gimmicky waggle. Every single game I listed there can be found new for less than $40 with the peripheral, with the exception of Guitar Hero and Rockband. In fact you can get a PS2, Buzz, Eye Toy, Sing Star, and Time Crisis, all with their corresponding peripherals for less than the price of a Wii alone. Not to mention that there are plenty of simple, easy to play PS2 games that don't require a peripheral (eg Katamary Damacy).

[Dukefrukem]

I've repaired my PS2 two times more then I've repaired my 360 and not only that, I get so many Disc Read Errors on my current PS2 that I had to buy the HDLoader for it so I could run games off the harddrive. So if I repair my current unit, that will be 3 times I've had to repair it. All over the exact same issue.

so what is your PS2 like 9 years old? How old is the 360?

[Disgustipated]

For Duke's understanding:

What Disgustipated and I are saying here is that you are not very intelligent.

It's kinda sad when you have to spell it out for him but I think he appreciates it. You're a good man, TFO.

[wyeast]

Hurry up and sell more dammit, so that Jasper boxes start showing up in the pipe! *shakes fist* :mad: :o

[OldJadedGamer]

Yeah, you'd realize that dvd drives were not that mature at the time the PS2 was released.

DVD drives were a lot more mature when the PS2 hit then Blu-ray drives where at the time the PS3 was released. After all, Blu-ray was directly blamed by crazy Ken himself for the original delay of the PS3.

Cheap DVD players were selling for $150 at stores like Circuit City before the PS2 even launched in Japan yet Blu-ray players were going for $1000 at the same time the PS3 launched.

So which is the more immature format and what system is more likely have problems over time because of it?

[Deadend]

I don't see 10 mil 360s this quarter, but I do see the 360/PS3 gap getting larger by a nice 2 million units.

[Urizen]

If buyers were smart the X360 should outsell the Wii. In reality? Average consumers are sheep.

Says the Man U fan.

[quidmonkey]

What happens when Oprah features a book on her show? I can tell you because my wife works for Barnes & Noble. Sales go through the fucking roof. It's not even funny how much of a jump an old book will get when featured by her as a pick. Seriously, publishers will kill their mothers to get a book on that list.

And here I thought we were discussing video games.

You're right, Oprah should pimp the 360, because obviously her audience is made of sheep and they won't know the difference between Halo vs. Wii Play.

[Telefrog]

And here I thought we were discussing video games.

You're right, Oprah should pimp the 360, because obviously her audience is made of sheep and they won't know the difference between Halo vs. Wii Play.

You're the one that asked what I thought would happen if Oprah pimped 360s. Yeah, I know it still wouldn't have appealed to Oprah's audience as much as the Wii, but the fact is that her pimping a product (any product) is a sales booster.

Look at McCarthy's The Road. It's a relentlessly depressing book about a father and son trying to survive and relate in the aftermath of complete devastation. It's a great book, but it's entirely outside the demographic of Oprah's audience. Her featuring it helped it's sales by a lot, but not to the extent that other more housewife friendly fare gets a boost. The jump in sales it did get was quite large regardless and it verifiably happened after the show. Oprah's audience buys whatever the heck she tells them to get.

To put it bluntly, they are sheep. They can tell the difference between Halo and Wii Play, but would they have been as discriminating with Viva Pinata? How about Scene It?

[Johan]

I don't care how many 360's sell, as long as hardware sales enable continued software development and releases.

Besides, I'm waiting for MS to kill off the 360, half-ass backwards compatibility with it, and push me to their next broken hardware iteration for the next generation.

[quidmonkey]

To put it bluntly, they are sheep. They can tell the difference between Halo and Wii Play, but would they have been as discriminating with Viva Pinata? How about Scene It?

Scene It they would play; Pinata they couldn't. 360 isn't outside the demographic due to content; it's outside the demographic because it's too complex. It's not a matter of taste, but of technical expertise. The Wiimote succeeds not because of motion controls, but because it's simple to use.

Scene It is an exception, because it's got a shiny plastic controller with four colorful buttons and a design that's similar to Jeopardy. Your book example? It is McCarthy you're talking about.

EDIT

The Poisonwood Bible by Barbara Kingsolover would've been a better example.

[Telefrog]

Scene It they would play; Pinata they couldn't. 360 isn't outside the demographic due to content; it's outside the demographic because it's too complex. It's not a matter of taste, but of technical expertise. The Wiimote succeeds not because of motion controls, but because it's simple to use.

Man, I thought I was insulting by calling Oprah's audience a bunch of sheep. My eight year old plays Viva Pinata without any assistance from me. :D

[quidmonkey]

Man, I thought I was insulting by calling Oprah's audience a bunch of sheep. My eight year old plays Viva Pinata without any assistance from me. :D

True, but Oprah's audience is neither young and willing to learn nor masculine. Few of them have a dad who's a gamer and willing to show Jr. the joys of holding a controller.

EDIT

And there's something to be said about Jr's inherent genetic traits vs. the average Ophrite's IQ.