Divorce Rates Higher in States with Gay Marriage Bans

[Slack3r78]

Over the past decade or so, divorce has gradually become more uncommon in the United States. Since 2003, however, the decline in divorce rates has been largely confined to states which have not passed a state constitutional ban on gay marriage. These states saw their divorce rates decrease by an average of 8 percent between 2003 and 2008. States which had passed a same-sex marriage ban as of January 1, 2008, however, saw their divorce rates rise by about 1 percent over the same period.

As is somewhat visually apparent, those states which have tended to take more liberal policies toward gay marriage have tended also to have larger declines in their divorce rates. In Massachusetts, which legalized gay marriage in 2004, the divorce rate has declined by 21 percent and is the lowest in the country by some margin. It is joined at the top of the list by Rhode Island and New Mexico, which do not perform same-sex marriages but idiosyncratically also have no statute or constitutional provision expressly forbidding them, as well as Maine, whose legislature approved same-sex marriage only to have it overturned (although not banned constitutionally) by its voters.

On the other hand, the seven states at the bottom of the chart all had constitutional prohibitions on same-sex marriage in place throughout 2008. The state which experienced the highest increase in its divorce rate over the period (Alaska, at 17.2 percent) also happens to be the first one to have altered its constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage, in 1998.

The differences are highly statistically significant. Nevertheless, they do not necessarily imply causation. The decision to ban same-sex marriage does not occur randomly throughout the states, but instead is strongly correlated with other factors, such as religiosity and political ideology, which we have made no attempt to account for.

There is, however, probably now enough data on this subject to engage in more sophisticated longitudinal studies on this subject (more sophisticated than I have engaged in here), which might produce more robust conclusions.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/divorce-rates-appear-higher-in-states.html

[Generation ABXY]

See, even attempting it has ruined the foundation of traditional marriage!

Seriously, though, if that’s true, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. If the stability of your marriage was dependant upon who else was allowed to marry, I think it may have had much deeper problems. (And, really, if you want a culprit, look at the current state of divorce - allowing people to so easily get out of a contract means some people were going in relatively risk free, failing to consider all the implications.)

[Slack3r78]

See, even attempting it has ruined the foundation of traditional marriage!

Seriously, though, if that’s true, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. If the stability of your marriage was dependant upon who else was allowed to marry, I think it may have had much deeper problems. (And, really, if you want a culprit, look at the current state of divorce - allowing people to so easily get out of a contract means some people were going in relatively risk free, failing to consider all the implications.)
Yet the states that put a looser emphasis on the definition of marriage seem to be doing a better job of actually following through with the commitment.

[Kelegacy]

But marriage is supposed to be a life-long, sacred contract!

In 10 years anti-gay rights people will be treated like racists are today (and as they should be, IMO). Back in the early part of last century, racism was the norm so it wasn't taboo. Today, we call people out on it. Being a racist is a bad thing and no one wants that stigma, and I hope anti-gay rights people wind up being treated the same.

[roboninja]

I would think a possible contributing factor would be the higher number of repressed homosexuals in those states. In these areas, homosexuality is much more stigmatized, causing many to not even admit it to themselves. So they go get married in an attempt to be "normal", and end up in shitty situations, hating their life and their partner. Divorce follows.

[Panthera]

That's actually a really good theory.

[Ink Asylum]

The less you try to convince people to marry early through moralizing and abstinence-until-marriage sex-ed the more stable the resulting marriages will be.

[Slack3r78]

I would think a possible contributing factor would be the higher number of repressed homosexuals in those states. In these areas, homosexuality is much more stigmatized, causing many to not even admit it to themselves. So they go get married in an attempt to be "normal", and end up in shitty situations, hating their life and their partner. Divorce follows.

I don't buy it.

As somebody dead in the center of the bible belt, my postulation is that having sex = go get married has far more to do with divorce rates than repressed homosexuality. There's a lot of pressure on people to get married early here.

[Kelegacy]

I would think a possible contributing factor would be the higher number of repressed homosexuals in those states. In these areas, homosexuality is much more stigmatized, causing many to not even admit it to themselves. So they go get married in an attempt to be "normal", and end up in shitty situations, hating their life and their partner. Divorce follows.

Same goes for the people who are homophobes. The people most against it usually wind up getting caught in the closet foolin' around.

I don't think there is a such thing as a homophobe. You might as well just call the term "homosexual".

[roboninja]

I don't buy it.

As somebody dead in the center of the bible belt, my postulation is that having sex = go get married has far more to do with divorce rates than repressed homosexuality. There's a lot of pressure on people to get married early here.

That's why I said a contributing factor. ;) I would think yours would have more of an impact as well.

[Generation ABXY]

I would think a possible contributing factor would be the higher number of repressed homosexuals in those states. In these areas, homosexuality is much more stigmatized, causing many to not even admit it to themselves. So they go get married in an attempt to be "normal", and end up in shitty situations, hating their life and their partner. Divorce follows.

Someone usually suggests that in every thread, but I think the explanation is probably more simple. I think religion is probably more to blame than that, like Slacker and a couple others have suggested.

[Slack3r78]

That's why I said a contributing factor. ;) I would think yours would have more of an impact as well.

Yeah, I just think you're drastically overestimating the effect, especially in the past decade. I'd frankly be shocked if it contributed more than a statistical blip. You really don't have to go digging for an explanation in most failed marriages here.

[Slack3r78]

Someone usually suggests that in every thread, but I think the explanation is probably more simple. I think religion is probably more to blame than that, like Slacker and a couple others have suggested.

YOU SHUT UP ABXY WITH YOUR FANCY FUCKIN OCKHAM'S RAZOR :mad:

z

[Voodoo]

I think religion is probably more to blame than that, like Slacker and a couple others have suggested.

It is very difficult for me to agree with generalized statements like this. Since I am familiar with a great number of religions, when I see this statement I don't just right away focus on a specific one. For instance, I'm sure we can find a great number of Wiccans living in the bible belt that are happily married and if studied the divorce rate is probably pretty low for that religion in particular.

I'm fully aware that Slacker specifically side 'bible belt'. What I'm saying that statements like, "I think religion is probably more to blame than that..." makes a definition in my mind of all religions. This simply is not the case.

Technically, 'bible belt' religions are most often associated with Baptist, Methodist and Evangelistic religions. BUT, this isn't a coverall of the religions in the area which is why I do not like generalizations of the region.

Now in relation to the topic at hand. I can definitely agree that the majority of the voters voting against this could very well fall under one of the three I have above. It is a very interesting, slightly surprising, finding that these states that have the ban also suffer higher divorce rates. My guess is that if a study was also conducted on the amount of arguments and disagreements among neighbors of the same region, you'd find them to be high as well.

[Generation ABXY]

I just meant, most people probably oppose gay marriage for religious reasons. Those same people may be just as likely to try and live up to the standard they’re told they should live their lives by, too (that is, no sex before marriage, or at least marrying the mother of your children), and that can lead to a bad situation. Therefore, I think religion is probably more to blame for the high divorce rates than repressed homosexuality – I stand by my statement.

You’re free to think what you like, of course, but keep in mind that I routinely remind people that I have no problem with religion.

[txshurricane]

I wonder if seeing gay marriage legalized impacts the conservative population to value their hetero marriage even more, both spiritually and politically.

What happens when gun bans start happening? Conservatives bury their guns. So is it reasonable to expect marriages to strengthen when states legalize gay marriage? I think so.

Conservatives are a clingy bunch, after all. We tend to clench harder to that which we feel is threatened.

[Voodoo]

Conservatives are a clingy bunch, after all. We tend to clench harder to that which we feel is threatened.

That made me laugh. Certainly an out of context laugh, but a great laugh. :D

Also, I agree with your summarized statement Generation ABXY. It makes much more sense to me when presented as you did.
You’re free to think what you like, of course, but keep in mind that I routinely remind people that I have no problem with religion.
Don't have to remind me about your standing at all, routinely or out of band.

[Slack3r78]

I wonder if seeing gay marriage legalized impacts the conservative population to value their hetero marriage even more, both spiritually and politically.
If that were the case, I'd expect states with gay marriage bans to have seen a decline in divorce during the last decade, rather than a 9 point swing in the other direction relative to states without them. That's kind of the point of running the numbers here.

[National Kato]

So, if Jack and Jill's marriage is on the rocks because Jack is useless around the house and Jill has let herself go and they're not getting along anymore and the spark is gone and their love fading, but gay marriage is passed in their state, Jack and Jill are going to finally make it work?

[Slack3r78]

So, if Jack and Jill's marriage is on the rocks because Jack is useless around the house and Jill has let herself go and they're not getting along anymore and the spark is gone and their love fading, but gay marriage is passed in their state, Jack and Jill are going to finally make it work?

I don't think anybody has said anything to that effect (in fact, the original article goes out of its way to disclaim a causative effect, as I quoted in the OP). Rather, there is a very strong correlation which would seem to indicate that something is going on here. I've put forward my theory as to what that may be, as have others here.

What it does seem to undermine, however, is the claim that allowing gay marriage weakens traditional marriage.

[National Kato]

I don't think anybody has said anything to that effect

I should've been more clear. My response was directed to the thought that legalizing same-sex marriage would make the conservative population value their marriage more. I still think the main reasons for divorce are the most understandable: infidelity, failed expectations, stress, natural changes in one's personality, etc.

[Slack3r78]

I should've been more clear. My response was directed to the thought that legalizing same-sex marriage would make the conservative population value their marriage more. I still think the main reasons for divorce are the most understandable: infidelity, failed expectations, stress, natural changes in one's personality, etc.

Sure, my point is mostly that while the effect isn't causative, the strong correlation does suggest there may be a common cause in the cultural differences of these states.

[Doctor Setebos]

What happens when gun bans start happening? Conservatives bury their guns. So is it reasonable to expect marriages to strengthen when states legalize gay marriage? I think so.But I thought the whole argument conservatives have been using against gay marriage hangs on the idea that allowing it to exist makes hetero marriage weaker?

[johnperkins21]

I bet if they really look at those numbers the causation will come directly from the ages of the people getting married. In the more conservative areas where same sex marriage bans occur, marriage is generally pushed onto kids who want to get it on, and kids end up getting married too early. In the more liberal areas, this isn't necessarily the case, so people are allowed to grow into adults before the pressure of marriage occurs.

Move the minimum age to get married up to 25, and I'm certain you'll see a huge drop in divorce rates across the entire country.

[LordDon]

But I thought the whole argument conservatives have been using against gay marriage hangs on the idea that allowing it to exist makes hetero marriage weaker?

Oh damn, nice one Dr.!

[Ox]

I think people are ignoring the obvious possibility that causation runs the other way around: concerns about same-sex marriage are spurred in part by concerns about heterosexual marriage.

If divorce rates were 2%, most people would probably be pretty relaxed about perceived threats to heterosexual marriage. If you live in a place with rampant divorce, however, you'll freak out at even a theoretical possibility of weakening marriage further. So it's perfectly logical that places with higher divorce rates also tend to be breeding grounds for anti-gay-marriage sentiment: they're frightened of making it even worse.

This also helps explain why same-sex marriage is now a major issue: with divorce rates declining in some (but not all) states after decades of rising, people in those places feel they have breathing room to experiment with the system a little.

Obviously Slack's explanation is much more powerful and much more likely to be right, but I enjoy making completely unprovable and implausible speculative arguments.

[Generation ABXY]

I enjoy making completely unprovable and implausible speculative arguments.

What, you? Get outta town!

[Slack3r78]

I think people are ignoring the obvious possibility that causation runs the other way around: concerns about same-sex marriage are spurred in part by concerns about heterosexual marriage.
It's an explanation I'd considered, actually. The interesting thing is that both explanations more or less seem to suggest that marriage is failing because we let the "wrong" people get married; it seems the debate is over who these wrong people are and whether they should be legally barred from making the mistake of marriage.

[J Arcane]

The less you try to convince people to marry early through moralizing and abstinence-until-marriage sex-ed the more stable the resulting marriages will be.

I don't buy it.

As somebody dead in the center of the bible belt, my postulation is that having sex = go get married has far more to do with divorce rates than repressed homosexuality. There's a lot of pressure on people to get married early here.

I think this is more or less it.

When I was young my mother, a fundamentalist who married quite young indeed, told me she'd disown me if I even thought about getting married before I was at least 35.

I thought that was a bit extreme at the time, but the older I get the more sense I see in it.

Young people are too fucking dumb to get married.

[LordDon]

Young people are too fucking dumb to get married.

I'm living proof.

[Doctor Setebos]

Young people are too busy fucking dumb to get married.Fixed that for you. :D

[txshurricane]

But I thought the whole argument conservatives have been using against gay marriage hangs on the idea that allowing it to exist makes hetero marriage weaker?
That's a really good point, but there's a huge difference between what conservatives might think will happen and what may be happening. Both speculative, but one with actual numbers behind it.

[Kelegacy]

Young people are too fucking dumb to get married.

Too immature is probably the better term. Life is so small as a young person yet seems so enormous. We're naive as youths.

But just because you're young doesn't mean you're as immature as the next person. So I think it all depends on an individual. Some people can handle marriage, some are too impulsive. They throw the "love" word around too much without truly knowing what it is. I was watching Up the other night and the beginning of the movie is a montage of enduring love and it made me a bit melancholy. I can understand that level of the movie because I'm living such a life now, I believe.

So I think the young can be mature enough to get married, but as a culture I think we've become overly impulsive, and marriage is just another thing we "purchase" without thinking about it enough first.

I'm 29, my wife is 32. I think we're smart/mature enough. But we also aren't in our early 20s either. You grow up a lot in that short time frame, mostly due to more adult responsibilities.

[boratika]

Young people are too fucking dumb to get married.

It's not so much that they are dumb, but rather that their frontal and parietal lobes haven't finished growing and so they aren't able to make good decisions, as they can't process potential consequences of their actions.:)

[Doctor Setebos]

That's a really good point, but there's a huge difference between what conservatives might think will happen and what may be happening. Both speculative, but one with actual numbers behind it.Well, as others have pointed out, it's nearly impossible to know exactly what kind of cause/effect relationship have created these numbers. But you do bring up a very valid point about speculation before the fact potentially being drastically different from the actual results.

[johnperkins21]

But just because you're young doesn't mean you're as immature as the next person. So I think it all depends on an individual. Some people can handle marriage, some are too impulsive. They throw the "love" word around too much without truly knowing what it is. I was watching Up the other night and the beginning of the movie is a montage of enduring love and it made me a bit melancholy. I can understand that level of the movie because I'm living such a life now, I believe.

You just described virtually every television show on The CW.

[Kelegacy]

But you do bring up a very valid point about speculation before the fact potentially being drastically different from the actual results.

Like the speculation that gay marriage would have any impact whatsoever on families or straight marriage? ;)

[txshurricane]

Like the speculation that gay marriage would have any impact whatsoever on families or straight marriage? ;)
Or the speculation that gay marriage lacks said impact. :)

[Kelegacy]

Or the speculation that gay marriage lacks said impact. :)

Well, ask the straight people of Massachusetts if their marriage has become weaker as a result.

[Panthera]

Or ask us here in the north how often gay marriage is even brought up as a controversy now that it's been in law for a little while.

I'll save you time: it's never.

It's like a child kicking and screaming as you try to dress him. Once it's done he'll shut up about it.

[Ink Asylum]

You mean Canada hasn't fallen into moral decay? The divorce rate hasn't skyrocketed? Roving bands of homosexuals aren't abducting kids off the street to indoctrinate them into "The Gay"?

[roboninja]

You mean Canada hasn't fallen into moral decay? The divorce rate hasn't skyrocketed? Roving bands of homosexuals aren't abducting kids off the street to indoctrinate them into "The Gay"?

Not really, no. I have only seen 2 such roving gangs, on nonconsecutive occasions.

[Panthera]

You mean Canada hasn't fallen into moral decay? The divorce rate hasn't skyrocketed? Roving bands of homosexuals aren't abducting kids off the street to indoctrinate them into "The Gay"?

Worse. Schools are teaching children that it's alright to be gay.

[Ink Asylum]

Not really, no. I have only seen 2 such roving gangs, on nonconsecutive occasions.

How was the experience?

Worse. Schools are teaching children that it's alright to be gay.

That's really what it's all about in the end. There's no logical threat to marriage from allowing gays to partake, unless you view social acceptance of homosexuality as an inherent negative.

[LordDon]

That's really what it's all about in the end. There's no logical threat to marriage from allowing gays to partake, unless you view social acceptance of homosexuality as an inherent negative.

Well that and it causes earthquakes in Haiti.

[Ink Asylum]

No, no. That's deals with the devil. Homosexuality caused 9/11.

[Doogie2K]

Or ask us here in the north how often gay marriage is even brought up as a controversy now that it's been in law for a little while.

I'll save you time: it's never.

It's like a child kicking and screaming as you try to dress him. Once it's done he'll shut up about it.

Harper made a few noises about re-opening the debate to appeal to his base before one of the elections -- damned if I can keep them straight anymore, no pun intended -- but nothing's been done with it since. Like you said, everyone noticed that the world was still turning and kind of forgot about it.